Who will qualify from the first Semi Final? 2019

[Kevan1994]

[MENTION=16095]heke1988[/MENTION] Sorry! Thanks for catching that. Yeah it’s Iceland ]

 

[popavapeur]

fill in the blank :

 

[Swedenvision]

Very weak semi, hard to predict and all would have problem to qualify in semi 2 to be honest.
But I hope these 8 will qualify, the rest I don't like.

 

[Kairit]

 

[lavieenrose]

Pretty Set +: This semi is really wide open, but two songs strike me as an extra cut above the rest in terms of qualification likelihood.


Pretty Set


Borderline + (C) DaFlo


Borderline - (C) DaFlo
(this feels like my risk of the lot, but I just don't know if it'll inspire *passion* like Round 1 did. Maybe that'll mean it can make up some jury points on Round 1, but...it's not like it's more *marketable* or like there aren't plenty of songs here to upstage it with the juries.)

Don’t Count Out Figuratively: All of these feel like they'll have a tough road, but they have the kind of personality or concept that may transfer well at a Eurovision performance. Classic cases of this category from years past include both Serbia and Montenegro 2015, Georgia 2016, Croatia 2017, and Ireland 2018. I'd be surprised if more than 1 of the songs I have in this category make it, but I'd be more surprised if none did.


Don’t Count Out Literally: Eurovision is a weird thing. You never fully know what's going to happen.


I hate to linger on one of the less fun moments of Eurovision 2019 (lol WHOMST am I fooling?), but it feels like anything in the final of Vidbir 2019 would've slaughtered this semi and made everyone else scatter. Oh well.

 

[Alaska49]

this semifinal just got even weirder to predict with the running order and i dare to say there are NO locks anymore. anyone can flop!!!!


with that said, things remain probably likely for , i still think is more likely than people think, and got a lot closer with this draw. have an actual stage (not a given) and it probably advances. i guess isn't hurt by the draw but i will never be confident because it's already so good to be true that thy are even going lol. i still think slide through, but the order probably makes things too hard for , so i change my prediction to . i wish i could say advances but it still looks unlikely, sadly. got the huge gift of closing, but i don't think it's enough.


to recap, my current prediction in order of likelihood is now

 

[Charly]

I think was the winner in the running order, im pretty sure they could qualify now

 

[Citelis]

After the draw my prediction is something like this:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.

 

[Ana Raquel]

and of course

i, for some reason, think that belgium and greece will screw up in the staging AGAIN, and slovenia will be drawfucked

is screwed and i don't know if darumeme will be helpful enough. I'm unsure about as well... dáddy, bring da dansa

wasn't drawfucked at the end so it's in. maybe as well instead of these two. still think zenair will be a surprise qualifier

 

[BorisBubbles]

My previous post for reference:

Okay time for another painstakingly long analysis from yours truly, but I'm generally good at predicting qualifiers (usually I get 8/10 right before rehearsals), so I'm having a crack at it.

A little caveat beforehand: My assessments are based on song quality and the potential it has during staging, with sometimes taking draw into account as well. For internal selections the former two are largely guesswork and therefor ratings may change once the preshow parties/rehearsals have started.

Generally I also use this legenda in my analysis which I will post here for your convenience:

QF: Guaranteed qualifier
BL: Borderline qualifier (I tend to subdivide this in BL+, BL- and BL? depending how advantaged the entry is compared to other BL qualifiers)
NQ: Won't qualify

Anyway, without further ado:

ZENA - "Like it"
A pretty bad draw for Belarus, especially now that Ukraine has withdrawn. Belarus only has one friendly country in the SF in Poland and, more poignantly, has never qualified from the first half before, ever! "Like it" is a nice song though with a cute energy spike that should receive a few votes from both televoters and juries, but Zena's lack of experience / good, original song will catch up with her quickly, locking her out of the Grand Final.
Verdict: NQ

Lake Malawi - "Friend of a friend"
Opinions appear divided on Lake Malawi where half appear to enjoy their earworm britpop and the rest find them unbearably irritating. However, despite coming from a pretty unfortunate country, Lake Malawi manage to fill a niche in the semi nobody else does with their cheerful, upbeat sound, which should yield televotes. The problem is juries though. While "Friend of a friend" is radio-friendly, it's doesn't have any exceptional qualities and likely will have very simple (or downright annoying) staging. Personally I think they advance, but if other borderline qualifiers step up their A-game, Czechia may find themselves narrowly missing out on finals.
Verdict: BL+


Tamta - "Replay"
A very credible, if transparent attempt from Cyprus to capitalize on Eleni's success. Shoving my personal qualms about Replay aside, I think what we're looking at is a very fun high energy ride that will appeal to all ages. The one hurdle Tamta really faces is that she is The One That Came After Eleni and therefore always will have the Foureira Wannabe Label attached to her, regardless of whether she deserves it or not (Personally, I don't think it's fair to compare her to Eleni). Tamta will need to work on establishing herself as Tamta, as opposed to the ageing Eleni Clone Europe will perceive her as, or she might choke on her wheels. Still, all signs point towards Tamta being really good live, so qualification itself should not be a problem either way.
Verdict: QF


Darude ft Sebastian Rejman - "Look away"
Of course once Finland announced their participant as ~DARUDE, SANDSTORM~ the entire ESC community went ablaze because the meme power is real, y'all!! ....aaand then Finland revealed three underwhelming, dated EDM songs that could become their entry and the interest instantly evaporated! "Look away'" is the best of the three though, because it has a descernible melody and a Woke Message (which will make an impact of approximately zero but w/e), but things will greatly depend on Sebastian's live vocals and these vocals are, as established by UMK, rather Bad. Finland are definitely on the bubble for qualification as they're looking more like Gromee & Lukas 2.0. A decent draw that pits them between NQ fodder such as Belarus and Montenegro could save them, but right now things are looking very dicey indeed.
Verdict: BL-

Joci Pápai - "Az én apám"
An interesting choice for Hungary, because everyone simply assumes it will qualify, which triggers my PTSD for other Guaranteed Qualifiers which *whoops* NQ'd spectacularly (see: Greta, Verona, Sennek, Jüri, etc). Having said that, while I think "Az én apám" is a much weaker effort than "Origo", Joci should still make it into the final? The basic framework (big name, good voice, pleasant melody) is all there, all Joci really needs is effective staging that takes away most of the song's monotony. If Hungary can get that rolling, Finals will be all but guaranteed.
Verdict: QF

D-Moll - "Heaven"
Oh come on, don't be ridiculous.
Verdict: NQ

Tulia - "Fire of Love"
A huge question mark for me. One of the few acts that could really go either way, either just barely scraping by or bombing out entirely. Poland is one of the few countries with a relevant diasporia vote, but such a vote only really matters in cases where the live performance is already strong enough to draw in non-diasporia votes (as painfully demonstrated by all of last year's NQs). One of my friends pointed out that the closest analogy to Tulia is actually Neiokoso (Estonia2004), and I foresee a similar end where they narrowly miss out on finals, possibly after ranking third last with every jury (Montenegro and Serhat will be the B2 with every jury, bank on it).
Verdict: BL-

Nevena Božović - "Kruna"
Serbia is an interesting ESC country from a qualification perspective because they always seem to float between the 9th-11th place range in any semifinal they participate in and this year will be no exception. They have a strong singer in Nevena and loyals allies in Slovenia and Montenegro. Problem is that their entry this year is a Boring Balkan Ballad, at a time where they're no longer popular with the general viewer, as well as the absense of Switzerland and Austria from their Semi, which have a very loyal Serb diasporia. Serbia will have to put in a lot of work into making their song connect with the non-Yugo audience. If they can, they will advance. If they can't (by for instance keeping the Beovizija staging), they will Terzi themselves out of the Grand Final.
Verdict: BL?

Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl - "Sebi"
The main thing holding Slovenia back is the flag. 'Sebi' has already established itself as a massive grower with a solid fanbase, both here and elsewhere on the internet (yours truly's arm reaches quite far), but the question remains: will Zala & Gašper have sufficient on-stage chemistry to ensnare enough televotes at the first listen? It will largely depend on how effective the camerawork is at capturing their body language (which as evidenced by their album cover art and video clip is one of their strengths). Normally, I'd say the song is strong enough to merit qualification, but if anyone in this semi is the Blackbird, it's them.
Verdict: BL+

Kate Miller-Heidke - "Zero gravity"
Australia is another difficult to gauge because their success will depend entirely on having an ironclad staging concept, and we know very little about it! It's good that they're doing away with the (at this point very uncreative) Growth Dress gimmick, the song should sell itself. Still, I'm cautiously assigning them to the Borderline group; while staging Zero Gravity correctly is easy enough (especially with a rich broadcaster such as SBS), it's just as easy to fuck it up entirely. Aus WILL advance if they close the semi though. (which I expect them to)
Verdict: BL+

Eliot - "Wake up"
This should be an effortless qualification for Belgium, unless Eliot manages to be really bad live. However, being Belgian myself, I can confirm that he isn't and has displayed a very engaging personality in his interviews. RTBF always put a lot of thought into their entries (unlike VRT :-/) and this won't be an exception.
Verdict: QF

Victor Crone - "Storm"
Normally I'd say that Victor would qualify simply based on Swedish White Male Mediocrity, but if last year taught us anything is that nobody is safe if you're not good. Victor has two massive problems: 1) his song is generic crud and 2) he is a limp noodle with Lisa Rinna hair who also cannot sing well. Estonia do have a trump card in their CGI Gimmick, but I still think they'll bomb in the televote, even if they are Christerrigged into a late slot (#15-17). They will be top half with juries though and I think this could be good enough to barely skate by in 10th place if they're feeling generous.
Verdict: BL?

Oto Nemsadze - "Sul tsin iare"
Oto's only advantage is that he has a really powerful voice, but the song... Incoherent in-tune yelling does not make a song, but a very long, pain-staking vocal exercise (TAKE NOTES CROATIA) It's hard to me to judge fairly based on a low-budget performance in what was a low-budget national final, but it all just comes off as weird and not of the Good variety. It's defo staying in the semi based on what we know.
Verdict: NQ

Katerine Duska - "Better love"
Greece are pretty much good at everything, without necessarily excelling at anything, but with a guaranteed 24 points from Cyprus plus a bunch from other countries, including Belgium and Australia, their position should be quite safe. "Better love" screams Midcarder for me, as in 10th-15th place if the finale, if they get there. I've seen enough signals that Katerine will be good live, so I am going to grant them tentative Qualifier status, but with a caveat: pastel pinks are A Choice as far as aesthetics go and if Greece really intend to go down that route and make their staging look like a John Waters cult classic, I will be forced to revoke their QF status :-/
Verdict: QF

Hatari - "Hatrið mun sigra"
Hatred shall prevail, all the way into the final. Lmao, what is there even to analyze? They rule, Europe will love them, as well as the jury btw. If a Eurovision Jury can love Midnight Gold, then can certainly love this one as well. ÁSTIN DEYJA!!
Verdict: QF

Conan Osíris - "Telemóveis"
Conan is just so show-stoppingly weird that there's absolutely no way he won't be getting at least top five with the audience, if not top three. If well done, he should be getting a ton of jury votes as well (though not as much. I expect around 7th place with juries). I can also guarantee you he will be getting Belgium's and France's televoting 12s, due to the combination of Being Good + Diasporiae.
Verdict: QF

Serhat - "Say Na Na Na"
Lol, Serhat will do his usual spiel where he'll scrape together enough points to earn 9th in the televote, while scoring 9 points total in the jury vote. It would be hilarious if he qualified, especially if at the expense of Estonia or Serbia, but let us not kid ourselves. At least he won't substract from anyone's experience
Verdict: NQ

in sum:

QF: , , , , ,
BL: , , > , > ,
NQ: , , ,

The only really big changes I see are as follows:
- downgrades to NQ: crap draw and an unmemorable song can only carry you as far for an Unlucky Nation such as Finland
- & downgrade from BL+ to BL-: Mediocre draws and questionable songs: both countries need to be ON POINT with vocals and staging respectively in order to advance safely.
- upgrades from NQ to BL-: it's still damn' unlikely to me, but any country in the last position has a better shot at getting those televotes (something Serhat should be good at to begin with)
- upgrades from NQ to BL+: It really just is an excellent draw, right between two tepid ballads.
- and downgrade to BL-: I've a feeling one of them is going to NQ, and I'm not sure which one it is (I actually *think* it's Hungary )
- downgrade from QF to BL+ due to a mediocre televoting draw.

Other remain where they are.

Independently from all of this, I've also downgraded to BL+ because I've realized that "Telemoveis"'s highbrow artistry might fly over the heads of many casuals. (Conan's draw is pretty good though.)

In sum:
QF: , ,
BL+: , , , , , ,
BL-: , , , ,
NQ: , ,

Personal predictions (02/04): Cyprus, Greece, Iceland, Belgium, Poland, Slovenia, Portugal, Serbia, Czech Republic and Australia (because one BL+ song always NQs and while I LOOOOOVE Zena she's totally the Suzy in this scenario lol.)

 

[lavieenrose]

Updating mine in light of the running order:

Fighting for the Semi Win
(why is no one talking about as a draw beneficiary? It's aiming for the same votes is but w/more tempo & I think is sitting extremely pretty now)
Pretty Set

Definitely Hurt By The Draw But I Think Can Figure It Out Anyway

Borderline +

Borderline -
(I couldn't quite pull the trigger. Almost did. I'm sure I will after thinking more about it.)
Don’t Count Out Figuratively
(my pessimism about Hungary's chances truly knows no bounds, but the draw wasn't a big help in convincing me that it'll stand out.)
Don’t Count Out Literally
(AWFUL running order for it)

EDIT: "I don't think the draw was a big help in convincing me" is redundant.

 

[GRE]

 

[JamieBrown]

After the draw release I'm going with these...



Biggest chances to replace someone from the first half entries (mentioning Belarus) or Greece


Maybe surprising me


The rest is dead most probably

 

[GermanBango]

The moment no one everyone has been waiting for has arrived - My annual voting calculation/prediction is here
Jury votes are based on: Voting Patterns of each country > Odds > Polls
Televoting is based on: Polls > Voting patterns > Youtube views > Odds
Doesn`t say that much but could give us a little direction or something like that.

Juries

Televoting

Combined

 

[Gitte]

It surprises me everyone is so sure Belgium is gonna qualify. Remember last year? And 'a matter fo time' was a hardcore favourite before.

That semifinal was a bloodbath of course, but I still wouldn't be too sure.

 

[GRE]

[MENTION=10896]GermanBango[/MENTION], I am a statistic freak, so I always enjoy reading this kind of analysis.
Thank you for sharing.

 

[Realest]

uses an AVG-TV. Theres no way that gets only 6 Points from if 80% of all Countries have in the Top3.
Therefore also s 8 Points are senseless.
will definitely not only give 5 and 6 to and .

 

[DaFlo]

We all know predicting at this point is pointless cuz rehearsals gon switch things around

That being said

 

[Alaska49]

It surprises me everyone is so sure Belgium is gonna qualify. Remember last year? And 'a matter fo time' was a hardcore favourite before.

That semifinal was a bloodbath of course, but I still wouldn't be too sure.

i'd be very hesitant if it was VRT, but in RTBF i trust. three stellar jobs in a row recently.

 

[Citelis]

Belgium will qualify easily because there not many strong entries in this semi-final so even 8th or 9th Belgium will qualify!