What do the odds say?

[Mlyn]

From the countries of which we already know a song, the odds according to betfair via oddschecker look as follows:

22 16/1
25 17/1
35 26/1
36 29/1
39 66/1

These figures are pretty lame tbh, only Malta & NL would see the finals. The only hope for them, it seems, is our nightmare: the other countries send songs even worse.

The odds are already very flattering for the following countries (below 10/1):

33/5
7/1
36/5
37/5
41/5
19/2
10/1

That's basically the usual suspects, except for Finland.

The Big 5 & Host have roughly the same odds as Malta/NL at this moment, being more friendly to Germany, Austria and Italy and less friendly to UK, France and Spain.

 

[SRBIJA]

Way to go Serbia. :'D

 

[Schlagerman1]

Feels like it could be time for an ex-yu to win, so advantage for Serbia and Slovenia I say.

 

[Mlyn]

Well, if Serbia wins, they can stay in Wiener Stadthalle for another year. This area in Vienna is predominently yugoslavic.

Daniel Kaumakoski is also living nearby. Maria Serifovic is also Viennese as far as I know, so I guess she might live right there too.

 

[Mlyn]

Why do I get logged out after a minute or so? I wanted to post something .

Ok, then a short version.

The new leader is

and got a big boost in the odds.

and still very high.

The Bottom 3 are and

is also close to the bottom.

Eurovision Winner Betting Odds | Eurovision 2015 | Oddschecker

Malta is the only country with an official song that has a strong oddset.

France and Austria have the worst odds from the prequalified countries.


Most of the oddset is due to history and known voting patterns of course.

 

[ParadiseES]

Spain climbed a lot in the odds after Edurne was confirmed. That's good news! I hope we will not drop again when the song is released

 

[ZoboCamel]

Oddschecker now seems to have odds from another site, Betfred, too. For the most part they're offering more conservative, realistic levels of hype for the songs - they've got Finland at 33 instead of 11, for example, which seems more appropriate given that none of the Finnish songs in the NF look to have a chance of winning Eurovision. Similarly they've got Estonia at 16 instead of 6.

Both have got short odds on Serbia and Greece, though - it certainly feels like it could be the year for another Balkan, non-English song to take the title. Or perhaps I'm just being overly optimistic?

 

[Leydan]

well we don't know the songs from Serbia or Greece so it's impossible to know. They can only base it on passed results, Greece and Serbia usually do quite well (Serbia less so) in the competition.

 

[GRE]

Is Greece 1st at this moment?

 

[Pawhlen]

It´s pretty pointless looking at the odds before every country that will enter has chosen a song. I mean, we are 3rd at the moment despite that none of the 28 songs in Melodifestivalen have been made public or even been performed.

 

[Mlyn]

It´s pretty pointless looking at the odds before every country that will enter has chosen a song. I mean, we are 3rd at the moment despite that none of the 28 songs in Melodifestivalen have been made public or even been performed.

Well, it's striking that the known songs so far are basically at the bottom of the betslip.

is best at #17 then at #23 and at #24 (with 4 Big 5 behind them, so it doesnt look like certain final at all)

The rest is at the very end of the scoreboard.

This leads to the conclusion that it's way more likely than not than any of these countries with an act could win Eurovision 2015.

 

[lowyby]

& They have Czech Republic at 13th
This is just unbelievable ATM
Odds start getting serious around march

 

[Mlyn]

& They have Czech Republic at 13th
This is just unbelievable ATM
Odds start getting serious around march

Still, every update that comes with every new song is interesting.

 

[tuorem]

The odds will change when all the songs are released. The songs that are already out are in the bottom because they have yet to be compared to rest, nothing more.

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

British + Irish victories have been bet on the most so far - 28% of all bets have been on the United Kingdom winning, 16% Ireland, 10% Italy, 9% Spain, 9% Finland and 28% everybody else.

 

[Leydan]

British + Irish victories have been bet on the most so far - 28% of all bets have been on the United Kingdom winning, 16% Ireland, 10% Italy, 9% Spain, 9% Finland and 28% everybody else.

Well It's no surprise the UK, Ireland & Italy are the top 3 considering they were the only countries people could bet on until not so long ago.

 

[Mlyn]

UK and Ireland are the only options at PaddyPower and StanJames, and have been the only option at betfair for the most of the time. Paddypower also allows bets on Italy.

So that's it with it. Only betfred and betfair haven opened their market for all countries to bet on.

 

[ZoboCamel]

Even after all countries open up for betting, though, Ireland and the UK always seem to have laughably short odds comparative to the quality of their song. I guess it's because the betting agencies can put up those odds and people will still vote for their own countries, brimming with national pride and confident that their entry is the best? I seem to remember the UK having odds of 20:1 or lower in 2012 and 2013 when they clearly weren't going to win, and yet people still continued to bet at those odds.

That said, though, it seems like Spain and the UK might even be worth a small bet at this point in time at their current odds of 40:1. With the UK showing a positive change last year and heading towards contemporary music in a country with a strong contemporary music scene, and Spain choosing a strong team of writers with mainstream appeal, I'd say they've got a slightly above-average chance of winning, which isn't reflected in their slightly longer-than-average odds. I'm not saying that they're likely winners, but just that their chances appear to be above 2.5% each - the break-even point at these odds - with what limited information we have.

 

[Mlyn]

Ireland and UK will always have tilted odds, because of what you said.

 

[purplefebruary]

It's because a lot of these betting sites are based in the UK (also Paddy Power is based in Ireland) and therefore the vast majority of the punters are Brits, so it's natural that there would be some national bias