My first post this whole season. I was terrible at betting for the semis last year (but I had a good streak in the final).
Turkey, Russia and Greece will qualify because they are Turkey, Russia and Greece and they always qualify. I think we are all pretty much in agreement on those 3. Turkey and Russia are okay, sadly the Greek song is quite rubbish because of the terrible rapper. I don't mind rap and hip hop. I just don't like BAD rap.
Hungary will qualify cause I can see this song having a very broad appeal. She would have to fail miserably to miss the final.
Azerbaijan has a catchy tune and additionally gets quite some friendly votes, so there should also be no doubt about it.
I'm really sure about those 5 above.
I think Norway, Georgia, Serbia and Armenia will also make it. More gut feeling, but good enough for me to bet some money on all of them. Norway is catchy and different then all other songs here. Same goes for Georgia and Serbia. Armenia is Armenia and for some reason they always make the final.
I think the last spot will be a battle between Finland, Iceland, and Poland. I would say Finland is the most likely of those three.
As much as I like some of the other entries (I'm looking at you Switzerland, San Marino and Portugal) I think they all have to much weaknesses in their composition and are basically just not memorable enough (Switzerland, San Marino) or too strange (Portugal) to get a lot of votes.
So, as a summary those will go to the final (not in any order):
Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Serbia, Turkey and Finland (alternatives for Finland: Iceland, Poland).