Running Order Predictions
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What kind of sorcery is this?
burrito
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dark side secret
midnightsun
Veteran
I have watched both semis in the official running order now for the first time.
That was really an eye-opening experience!
I think we will have some surprises this year.
I noticed a few very interesting things:
In Semi 1 the quiet songs are totally getting thrown under the bus. I don’t have the exact running order in mind but I only remember the bangers in this semi. At one point I even thought that Sweden could not qualify because (as much as I love the song) it appears very pale at its starting position. Slovenia totally loses its magic, also Australia, Romania and Ireland are pretty weak at their starting spots.
In Semi 2 it‘s surprisingly quite the opposite. It’s all the ballads that stand out, that I can remember. Apart from San Marino and Denmark (which happen to be first and last one) I can’t remember which bangers are in that semi. But I know that Austria really stood out, also Estonia (if you put it into the category slower songs) and the group of four with Portugal a little bit weaker than the three others but still more remarkable than the bops of this semi. Georgia is really well-placed in that combo and it leaves a remarkable impression. Also Finland and Switzerland really stood out while Moldova, Poland and Serbia totally went under the radar.
Another thing I noticed was that in first semi, mostly Eastern songs did extremely well and in second semi, again, it was the other way around, all countries I can see qualifying are Western countries.
So some dark horses for the final are imho: Austria, Estonia, Denmark, Israel and Georgia.
Will have a hard time: Latvia, Australia, Ireland, Poland, Greece.
That was really an eye-opening experience!
I think we will have some surprises this year.
I noticed a few very interesting things:
In Semi 1 the quiet songs are totally getting thrown under the bus. I don’t have the exact running order in mind but I only remember the bangers in this semi. At one point I even thought that Sweden could not qualify because (as much as I love the song) it appears very pale at its starting position. Slovenia totally loses its magic, also Australia, Romania and Ireland are pretty weak at their starting spots.
In Semi 2 it‘s surprisingly quite the opposite. It’s all the ballads that stand out, that I can remember. Apart from San Marino and Denmark (which happen to be first and last one) I can’t remember which bangers are in that semi. But I know that Austria really stood out, also Estonia (if you put it into the category slower songs) and the group of four with Portugal a little bit weaker than the three others but still more remarkable than the bops of this semi. Georgia is really well-placed in that combo and it leaves a remarkable impression. Also Finland and Switzerland really stood out while Moldova, Poland and Serbia totally went under the radar.
Another thing I noticed was that in first semi, mostly Eastern songs did extremely well and in second semi, again, it was the other way around, all countries I can see qualifying are Western countries.
So some dark horses for the final are imho: Austria, Estonia, Denmark, Israel and Georgia.
Will have a hard time: Latvia, Australia, Ireland, Poland, Greece.
midnightsun
Veteran
Semi 1
Lithuania: Good opener, bop, will qualify.
Slovenia: placed between Russia and Lithuania is a bit of a dead end, the song is leading to nowhere. NQ.
Russia: after Slovenia being the „good girl“ Russia is kind of the audacious sibling. The rebel. Power and empowerment. Qualifier.
Sweden: It will still qualify because it’s a.) Sweden and b.) I love it and I want it to qualify but to be honest if this was 1978 it probably wouldn’t.
Australia: even if she nails the live performance which I doubt she will it seems very weird after the neat lovely Swedish song. NQ.
North Macedonia: Will benefit from Montaigne‘s weird voice and Vasil having an outstandingly good voice. People will be relieved after Australia and grant him some pity points. Borderline qualifier - if it was placed after another song it was a NQ.
Ireland: too plain in this combo and right before Cyprus. Nobody will remember Ireland. NQ.
Cyprus: First sexy female queen pop. Qualifier.
Norway: They. did. it. They really did it. Angel after El Diablo. The devil has more fire (yeah yeah) so Tix appears to be pretty weird. And boring. NQ.
Croatia: Sexy female queen pop number 2. If Cyprus qualifies, why shouldn’t this? Qualifier.
Belgium: It breaks my heart and I will vote for them until my phone explodes (or my 20 calls are done) but in this semi at this position between two sexy pop songs this needs a lot of luck to pass. Borderline qualifier, rather not than it will.
Israel: Belgium is not for everybody but Israel is for the common ESC audience. Her chances are higher now. Qualifier.
Romania: After energetic jumping ball Eden Roxen is just music if you want to get to sleep. NQ.
Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Malta: three very different but strong and energetic songs with powerful females. All 3 will qualify.
Lithuania: Good opener, bop, will qualify.
Slovenia: placed between Russia and Lithuania is a bit of a dead end, the song is leading to nowhere. NQ.
Russia: after Slovenia being the „good girl“ Russia is kind of the audacious sibling. The rebel. Power and empowerment. Qualifier.
Sweden: It will still qualify because it’s a.) Sweden and b.) I love it and I want it to qualify but to be honest if this was 1978 it probably wouldn’t.
Australia: even if she nails the live performance which I doubt she will it seems very weird after the neat lovely Swedish song. NQ.
North Macedonia: Will benefit from Montaigne‘s weird voice and Vasil having an outstandingly good voice. People will be relieved after Australia and grant him some pity points. Borderline qualifier - if it was placed after another song it was a NQ.
Ireland: too plain in this combo and right before Cyprus. Nobody will remember Ireland. NQ.
Cyprus: First sexy female queen pop. Qualifier.
Norway: They. did. it. They really did it. Angel after El Diablo. The devil has more fire (yeah yeah) so Tix appears to be pretty weird. And boring. NQ.
Croatia: Sexy female queen pop number 2. If Cyprus qualifies, why shouldn’t this? Qualifier.
Belgium: It breaks my heart and I will vote for them until my phone explodes (or my 20 calls are done) but in this semi at this position between two sexy pop songs this needs a lot of luck to pass. Borderline qualifier, rather not than it will.
Israel: Belgium is not for everybody but Israel is for the common ESC audience. Her chances are higher now. Qualifier.
Romania: After energetic jumping ball Eden Roxen is just music if you want to get to sleep. NQ.
Azerbaijan, Ukraine, Malta: three very different but strong and energetic songs with powerful females. All 3 will qualify.
lasse braun
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it is a big foul by the EBU puting latvia after finland!
they have put also lithuania on first in the other semi!?
weaker estonia also no good place = baltic countries in big danger this year.
finland has to start at first or better at last and not in between.
i don't like this manipulative procedure!
more fair is a draw!
midnightsun
Veteran
Semi 2
San Marino: Opening the semi is an advantage here because she can’t be compared to the song coming right before her. Also one of the few bops in the semi that really stands out. Chances are higher now we will get to see her qualifying.
Estonia: After powerful Senhit the audience needs „MIL‘s good looking darling“ to cool down and his chances have risen since he‘s got something for the heart, not for the party. Qualifier.
Czech Republic: Sigh. I love it but this is really fading between lovely Uku and unexciting Greece. I hoped he would qualify but he‘s in a combo of the middle of the road songs of which only one can pass. NQ.
Greece: see Czech Republic. NQ.
Austria: After a bunch of very soft and rather shallow songs Vincent singing his lungs out by the end of the song is like a wake-up call and he benefits from it. Qualifier.
Polen: Another one of the category Czech Republic and Greece. After the ardent Amen before this seems so superficial. NQ.
Moldova: Sexy queen pop by a rather untalented (in both voice and stage appearance) performer. This is what the die hard ESC bubble has waited for, otherwise she wouldn’t qualify. Borderline.
Island: Moms and grannys can sigh in relieve now. Finally the nerdy good boy with an inoffensive song. Means something the German jury will probably love. Qualify.
Serbia: See Moldova. NQ because there can only be one queen and she rules from position #1.
Georgia: After noisy glaring Serbia this is Georgia‘s chance. It’s simple, it‘s lovely, it’s perfect at this position to benefit from it. Qualifier.
Albania: Georgia set a path where Albania is perfectly fitting in. Borderline.
Portugal: With Georgia and Albania before and Bulgaria after it will have a hard time. NQ.
Bulgaria: Gives me Salvador Sobral vibes and we all know how that ended. Qualifier.
Finland: Loud, powerful but catchy rock. This will be appreciated not only by the fans of rock music but also by the mainstream ESC audience. Qualifier.
Latvia: After Finland this appears more noisy than Finland but in a bad messy way. With delicate but delicious Switzerland right after her this is a NQ.
Switzerland: There is basically no reason why it will not qualify. Qualifier.
Denmark: Ending a semi with a song that is played at German Schlager tent parties while people dancing to it after ten beers being drunk as hell is exactly what the vibe of this is. It’s positive, it’s powerful and it’s talking about exactly what a drunk couple would do after their Schlagerparty. Qualifier.
San Marino: Opening the semi is an advantage here because she can’t be compared to the song coming right before her. Also one of the few bops in the semi that really stands out. Chances are higher now we will get to see her qualifying.
Estonia: After powerful Senhit the audience needs „MIL‘s good looking darling“ to cool down and his chances have risen since he‘s got something for the heart, not for the party. Qualifier.
Czech Republic: Sigh. I love it but this is really fading between lovely Uku and unexciting Greece. I hoped he would qualify but he‘s in a combo of the middle of the road songs of which only one can pass. NQ.
Greece: see Czech Republic. NQ.
Austria: After a bunch of very soft and rather shallow songs Vincent singing his lungs out by the end of the song is like a wake-up call and he benefits from it. Qualifier.
Polen: Another one of the category Czech Republic and Greece. After the ardent Amen before this seems so superficial. NQ.
Moldova: Sexy queen pop by a rather untalented (in both voice and stage appearance) performer. This is what the die hard ESC bubble has waited for, otherwise she wouldn’t qualify. Borderline.
Island: Moms and grannys can sigh in relieve now. Finally the nerdy good boy with an inoffensive song. Means something the German jury will probably love. Qualify.
Serbia: See Moldova. NQ because there can only be one queen and she rules from position #1.
Georgia: After noisy glaring Serbia this is Georgia‘s chance. It’s simple, it‘s lovely, it’s perfect at this position to benefit from it. Qualifier.
Albania: Georgia set a path where Albania is perfectly fitting in. Borderline.
Portugal: With Georgia and Albania before and Bulgaria after it will have a hard time. NQ.
Bulgaria: Gives me Salvador Sobral vibes and we all know how that ended. Qualifier.
Finland: Loud, powerful but catchy rock. This will be appreciated not only by the fans of rock music but also by the mainstream ESC audience. Qualifier.
Latvia: After Finland this appears more noisy than Finland but in a bad messy way. With delicate but delicious Switzerland right after her this is a NQ.
Switzerland: There is basically no reason why it will not qualify. Qualifier.
Denmark: Ending a semi with a song that is played at German Schlager tent parties while people dancing to it after ten beers being drunk as hell is exactly what the vibe of this is. It’s positive, it’s powerful and it’s talking about exactly what a drunk couple would do after their Schlagerparty. Qualifier.
lasse braun
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grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
i translate it!
1. finnish copycat kills the creativecat!
after that comes as sweet the arcade copycat = the bitch will get a hardcore copycat sandwich!
oh no...
last hope here: the jurys!
midnightsun
Veteran
I don‘t think Latvia is THAT bad. But in this running order, placed between two favourites who stand out anyway, it feels more noisy than it actually is.
In my opinion, the starting position doesn’t matter so much but it matters which songs come before and after you.
Having said that - I hope that some predictions I made are wrong! I try my best to not fulfill them by voting for my outsider-favourites.
It is just my first impression after listening to the full set-up in the semi finals order.
In my opinion, the starting position doesn’t matter so much but it matters which songs come before and after you.
Having said that - I hope that some predictions I made are wrong! I try my best to not fulfill them by voting for my outsider-favourites.
It is just my first impression after listening to the full set-up in the semi finals order.
tkris
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While I guess some of your points are sensible , some predictions of yours have been totally marred by your own like/dislike of the song. Estonia would find it very tough to qualify , while Greece is pretty certain to qualify.
Serbia is not that certain , but it's gotten a good draw with Four ballads after it. It will definitely stand out in memory. And here is also another huge logic fail by you saying Serbia won't qualify cause Senhit is the queen , yet the same logic doens't apply on Croatia , Israel and Cyprus in semi 1.
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tkris
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The fact that you couldn't give separate reasons to vote for Croatia and Cyprus , clearly shows how they will dig into each other's fanbase and votes . Cyprus is poppier and more radio-friendly though . Croatia and Israel are not placed that comfortably .
Again , Labelling North Macedonia as a possible qualifier just because you think the preceding song by Australia is not good is a huge logic fail in my opinion.
Again , There is a huge logic fail here where you have said the Contrast between Romania and Israel makes Romania a NQ while in semi 2 , the same contrast made Georgia and Estonia a qualifier.
All these are good "opinions" but bad "predictions".
midnightsun
Veteran
I really hope it’s just opinion not prediction because I would lose some of my favourites but on the other side it’s as much prediction as all the other predictions in various prediction threads!
midnightsun
Veteran
Vasil told sth interesting in an interview some days ago. He said that the EBU watched all their live-on-tape performances before they determined the running order.
So - there is a reason why the songs are placed in this order!
So - there is a reason why the songs are placed in this order!
Zeus
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Finland (angry and heavy) after Portugal and Bulgaria (slow and lovely) will really work for them. How do you wake up people who are getting bored with slow ballads. Well, with Finland this year. Big televote-score for Finland incoming right there.
Cyprus, Norway (dramatic both) and Croatia (typical Eurovision) might work for Belgium as well. I don't think it's a bad spot. People who could like a quality and mature song like the Belgium one will feel it as a blessing after three typical dramatic Eurovision-entries with probably a lot of staging as well.
Cyprus, Norway (dramatic both) and Croatia (typical Eurovision) might work for Belgium as well. I don't think it's a bad spot. People who could like a quality and mature song like the Belgium one will feel it as a blessing after three typical dramatic Eurovision-entries with probably a lot of staging as well.