Time for an update to
my previous post! Lots of stuff has moved around. As a reminder:
The Top Contenders looks at songs which I think are our current front-runners;
The Dark Horses are generally the songs that look promising, but haven't given us much to work with yet, or have some larger flaws;
The Stragglers refers to countries that I'm close to discounting, but want to wait for any surprises from; and finally,
Won't Win It are those that, well, won't win it, barring a miracle or some kind of massive surprise.
Below, I've updated my comments for every country that's given us substantial new info over the last month (i.e. everyone bar a small handful); eliminated one category ("The Unknowns", since we've got a lot more info now), and put an extra 17 songs down into "Won't Win It". With 6 of my remaining 13 songs being stuff we don't know yet, I should be able to write off another bunch in a week or so, and then it's just a matter of risk assessment to decide what's worth keeping in my top list. Here's how things look for now:
In It To Win It: The Top Contenders
Bulgaria - Bulgaria's track record & effort are promising, as are the murmurs from the internal jury panel, which is mentioning a big stand-out.
Estonia - There's a handful of issues here (over-acting in parts; juries; a slow-ish second verse), but this is way too impactful to discount.
Finland - The live may need some polish, but this is big, bombastic, uplifting pop in a year where little else is. I think it could surprise.
Israel - Netta's looper could be the year's winning gimmick, and the Doron-composed song sounds promising. Need to actually hear it first, though.
Sweden - Melfest has turned out to be weaker than usual, but in a year lacking frontrunners I don't want to rule out Sweden's efforts just yet.
In It To Win It: The Dark Horses
Armenia - Strong, but hasn't yet got the positive reaction I'd expected, and staging is a question. Will keep an eye on this a little longer.
Australia - It's Eurovision-by-numbers, smells like jury bait and has staging potential. Perhaps too anonymous and lacking in development, though.
Denmark - Accessible pop + strong, unique twist = a recipe for Eurovision success. Live performance and jury scores are the big questions here.
Hungary - A massive question mark. This could quite easily NQ, but on the other hand it's unique, hugely impactful and inspires strong reactions.
Russia - Though I struggle to see Yulia as a winner, it's Russia, and they may not have been trying too hard last time. I'll wait for the song.
The Netherlands - A clear standout, and should do well. Feels like a top 5-10 entry, not a winner, but I want some more time to think on this.
In It To Win It: The Stragglers
FYR Macedonia - Macedonia struggles even in their best years, but we've got nothing to go off so far this year. Will give them some time.
Ireland - From what we've heard? Probably not. I'd like to hear the song first, though, since what we know isn't much to go off.
Won't Win It
Albania - A revamp could improve Mall, but not to winner-level. Plus, Albania's staging has been weak lately.
Croatia - As previously expected, the internal selection wasn't quite strong enough. Not many people with strong opinions on this one.
Czech Republic - May do better than I'd first thought, but I've put it down here and still have uncertainties, so I'm reluctantly keeping it here.
France - Will struggle to have enough impact musically, despite powerful lyrics. France has missed the podium in 2016-17 with stronger entries.
Georgia - Artists can change their style for Eurovision, but only so much. This one seems destined for an NQ.
Iceland - A bad choice from an already-weak NF. If big, well-staged, rousing peace ballads from Russia haven't won before, this won't either.
Latvia - I can see this having its fans. However, I doubt there are nowhere near enough of said fans to make this win.
Malta - Eye-catching staging and catchy sections can only do so much to hide the fact that this doesn't have a winner's impact.
Moldova - If we're talking mid-2000s Eurovision, then perhaps. Here, I think its real challenge will be reaching the final.
Norway - Rybak's charisma could potentially propel his mediocre song to a decent spot, if he wins MGP, but there's clearly no winner here.
Portugal - Better than I'd expected, but no back-to-back here. Despite positive forum reactions, this isn't attention-grabbing like Salvador.
Romania - I can see this having more fans than most are expecting, but that still doesn't bring it anywhere near a top spot.
Switzerland - While I think Stones could surprise a lot of people with a decent finish, I'm predicting more of a mid-teens position, not a win.
New
Austria - Strong staging potential and moments of brilliance, but that chorus doesn't shout "Eurovision winner" to me.
Azerbaijan - A marginally weaker version of Australia, and without so much potential for staging. I'll mark this as a no-chance, albeit barely.
Belarus - Should do well with Eastern televoters, but I don't think the juries and Eastern countries will award it highly enough.
Belgium - I think the juries will love this, and televote could like it, but it may need more impact. Borderline top 10?
Cyprus - Even in a year lacking upbeat dance bangers so far, the effective lack of a chorus should stop this from reaching the podium.
Germany - Michael's safe-but-emotional pop ballad looks like a formula for success, but I'm not sure it's got the wow-factor for a win.
Greece - Should really come alive on stage. That said, Armenia only got 18th last year with a similar package, and I'm not sure about televotes.
Italy - Beautiful and powerful, but conveying the message across languages may prove difficult. A massive grower; not so strong on first listen.
Lithuania - Whatever wins the NF, I don't think it'll have the power to continue on to a Eurovision win.
Montenegro - I don't see this succeeding where plenty of stronger Balkan ballads have failed.
Poland - Yes, it's immediate and contemporary, but it sounds like plenty of other songs this year. Likely too anonymous to challenge.
San Marino - A very niche, very San Marino entry after a trainwreck of an NF. In other words, a huge "no chance" sign in glowing neon lights.
Serbia - Despite being probably the best choice they could've made at Beovizija, it's messy and lacks a memorable hook.
Slovenia - Contemporary, well-staged and unique, but I just can't see it having enough widespread appeal with either juries or televoters.
Spain - Could still place well, but I'm of the opinion that the revamp has harmed its chances at a win.
Ukraine - This should be a top 10, but barring spectacular staging and some flops from other contenders, I don't think it can reach the top spot.
United Kingdom - I can't fault the UK public for choosing Storm after those NF performances, but it's coming nowhere near first at ESC.
) If you're tied with others that have the winners in their list as well with the same amount of countries in the list, the one that sent the list the earliest wins!
