I think the other way around. Entries like Italy, Sweden, Netherlands, Ukraine, Greece, Poland, Australia, Estonia, Portugal and UK could all receive a lot of juryvotes. I mean, this year is full of jury-friendly songs. I think there will be a lot of countries getting votes from the juries and therefore we will not see big gaps between them.
I couldn't agree more. Actually I mentioned some of these countries in my list before. But if Ukraine receives a lot of points from the juries, then we have a clear winner.
Yeah and I think it's possible as well. I mean, I think it's good that there are juries, but these Eurovision-juries aren't critical, cold snobs or something. They are just some happy c-artists, radio people and crappy producers. They too will vote with some sentimental feelings. And if Ukraine gets across a very emotional performance they too will give a lot of 12's and there you have it, a strong juryresult as well.
They will probably be Top 2 with the juries and will just need enough support by the public. And it's looking good on that side as well, the reception is much better compared to past entries like "Voices", "Too Late for Love" or "Dance you off". But I could also see a Barbara Pravi scenario (great in both categories but outdone by a different competitor each time) or even a Lundvik 2.0. Very very likely winners but... I think the juries will tank them. They could pull a Maneskin and win the televote and that could be enough. But this year there are a lot of jury pleasers, so I don't see them in their Top 5. Big fan favs but I think the win is getting less and less likely. I just think it's harder to motivate people to vote for the hosting country, even if the song is good. Last year they stood out a lot more. Will depend on the staging if they do well and they could get lost in the running order. The dark horse. S10 could repeat Duncan Laurance and win without actually winning either jury or televote. Very unlikely and if they win it won't be by a lot. Will do great with the juries (don't really see it win the jury though) but will be ranked way lower by the public. Casuals I showed this to really didn't care that much about it, so maybe that just tainted my view. Jury will probably like it but I think this will not fulfill big expectations. Except if staged very well. NO GREENSCREEN! I'm really surprised that the fans on Youtube are hyping up Chanel so much. Yes Spain will do good this year, Top 10 for sure but it's not a winner.
I'm a bit more optimistic because I think they just really wanted to do this idea they had for the "Supergirl" staging and then just did it for "Last Dance". Now they hopefully go in with that bs out of their system and try something more fitting.
. I am sitll in disbelief, but let's wait and see! 
* 2018 Flashback *I heard some rumors that this year we won't be using any props at all, which seems surprising, given that it's Fokas we r talking about.
. Sam Ryder is really huge on social media (solid televote) and I have absolutely zero doubt about his vocals (solid jurypoints as well), which is something I cannot say for most of the other frontrunners. Mahmood's falsetto/Kalush's white singing/even Corenelia's vocals could be a little problematic for the juries. The only "if" is the staging - Space Man stages itself, but this is still the so I am a little worried about that, sorry . - with Chanel pulling an Eleni, but no one finding their Toy this time. There is very little competition in Chanel's pond - possibly Ronela or Brook, but that seems about it. And like it or not, we already know Chanel's staging is a fantastic one., just because to me, it kind of makes sense for the longer term ESC pattern. The song is different - in the right way for its numerous fans, possibly hitting the sweet spot for being just polarising enough. Juries should dig those vocals as well. There's also the intrigue element about their identity. As much as the song is very near to the bottom of my ranking, I can picture it as an ESC winner., and are all the hot favourites who will almost surely make the top 10, but I don't believe any of them wins. is probably getting tanked by the juries and both and aren't as instant, they are growers that imo need a little more time.
, and maaybe , while I think , and are currently rather overvalued by the odds.
- Ukraine will surely get a huge amount of televotes. Sadly their diaspora have risen with millions just in some weeks. And the country is high on all european's minds, and will gain from a hugely positive bias. But the song itself, is it instant enough? And what about the juries? Songs with rap have often had problems in the ESC. I dont see Ukraine being top 2 after the jury votes. But yes, Ukraine is one of the contenders for the trophy. - Sweden is again one to watch out for. This will do real well with the juries, and might end up as the jury winner. But there are more songs this year that will be fighting for the more or less the same segment of the jury points. Alongside Sweden there's Italy, the Netherlands, Greece, Australia. All seem to do great live performances and the songs are slow/midtempo. I dont find Hold me Closer instant enough to get a top 3 in the televotes. - As for Italy my analisis will be very much like that of Sweden. This will be one of several jury pleasers. And I think Italy is the most likely winner of the jury votes. The fact that Italy bring a male duo makes it rather rare in the ESC. That will be an additional plus. As Sweden they will do well in the televotes as well. I do think my beloved Mahmood will end up top 3 once again. I dont think neither the juries nore the televotes will have any kind of bias towards Italy because they won last year. - What happens to Spain is all about Chanel. I know I am biased to this kind of latin pop. And una diva latina. The juries will probably appreciate Chanel more than the song itself. So goes for the televoters. Last year I would not mention Spain as a possible winner, since in Rotterdam there were plenty of female bops (Efendi, Elena, Destiny, Natalia, Senhit, Eden, Hurricane). But this year? I think Chanel will stand out this year. And she seems to be professional to the fingertips. And I do not think TVE will ruin this. - I can actually see another "keiino"; Norway winning the televotes. The kids do have mobiles these days. I see this doing better outside the bubble than amongst the fans. This will definitely stand out, it's instant and TV screen friendly, and the wolves seem to be taking this very seriously. The question is how much this will be killed by the juries. But as I (and others) have already pointed out, the juries have many entries to support - so the chance is that the televoters will have the last say.
Ukraine would have done well even without the war and could win the televote due to extra support this year. The Ukrainian refugees can be expected to vote for their homeland as well. The juries will support it more than they would have without the war. Normally, the juries would prevent a song like this from winning, but we have seen in 2018 that a song can do better with the juries for political reasons. Israel didn't win the jury vote that year, but a song with clucking and a performance featuring the chicken dance still got enough points from the juries to win, foremost thanks to virtue-signaling Western juries that wanted to show support for "Me Too" and "female empowerment" in addition to making a statement against "fat shaming". I don't expect Ukraine to win the jury vote, but it could still be the overall winner. I think Sweden could be a compromise winner. I don't think it will win either the jury vote or the televote, but the combined result might be enough for a win. Similar to Sweden, it could be a compromise winner. I don't think it will win the televote because screechy ballads rarely do. The juries have many ballads to choose from, so I'm skeptical about Italy winning the jury vote as well. It might get extra votes from jury members who see that Italy is favored by the betting market and it could get fewer points from the audience because Italy just won anyway. Poland could win the jury vote, but a ballad like this will not win the televote. If the juries clearly favor Poland among the multitude of ballads while the televote is split between various countries, it might be enough for Poland to win. It could win the televote, but it will not get much love from the juries. I'm surprised people think this could win. The juries can't be expected to give many points to this kind of song and I don't think it will be that successful with the audience either. I'd be surprised if Spain managed to get into the top 10. Top 15 seems plausible due to people being bored by too many ballads. If the live performance works out, it should do very well in the televote, but the juries will rather give their points to various ballads that will flop in the televote. It should do well in the televote, but the juries will rather vote for the usual safe ballads instead of supporting ethnic sounds. It might get more support than Ukraine last year because it's France, so I still expect a decent result if it's staged well.
It's the turn of the jury from Wallonia this year, I think the Netherlands can be happy with a top 10. I expect more points from
jury. will do well in with both, jury and televoters.
