ESC 2019 Betting Odds

[4815162342]

There was a similar thread last year. So I hope its okay if I open a new one. I will start by sharing the current betfair odds for winning ESC 2019:

Russia 5.4
Sweden 9.2
3. Italy 13
The Netherlands 17
Armenia 22
Belgium 26
Cyprus 34
Norway 36
Malta 36
10. France 38
Germany 38
Finland 38
13. Spain 40
Azerbaijan 44
Greece 44
Iceland 44
Portugal 46
Austria 48
19. Australia 50
Ukraine 50
Lithuania 50
Switzerland 70
23. Slovenia 75
Ireland 75
Poland 75
26. Estonia 80
27. Romania 90
Hungary 90
Georgia 95
30. Czech Republic 100
Denmark 100
32. United Kingdom 110
Belarus 110
Israel 120
FYR Macedonia 120
Moldova 190
37. Albania 200
San Marino 210
Serbia 220
40. Latvia 260
41. Croatia 280
42. Montenegro 360


bold = selected songs so far

 

[Preuss]

I must say that I am surprised that Sweden hasn’t decreased a bit in the odds considering the last weeks :s
Posiively surprised by France I like Bilal

 

[Pawhlen]

I must say that I am surprised that Sweden hasn’t decreased a bit in the odds considering the last weeks :s
Posiively surprised by France I like Bilal

Probably because all songs are not revealed yet for our final, still 7 left

 

[ZoboCamel]

I must say that I am surprised that Sweden hasn’t decreased a bit in the odds considering the last weeks :s

Yeah, I was thinking the same. The quality of MF has stepped up a little bit from last year, but I don't really see any Eurovision contenders in the first three MF semis so far; is everyone just betting on Sweden in the hopes that the remaining 7 songs will be a big step up from the last 21? It's certainly not impossible, but I'm not sure it's worth the 9/1 odds.

 

[4815162342]

One reason for this is probably the low quality of this year. Just look at the selected entries or the countries where we at least know all the studio versions. The market only sees Italy as a serious contender. Italy is loved in the fandom, but Mahmood only was 21st in televoting on his first evening. So there is also a big question about his chances.

 

[Pawhlen]

On the other hand, if it continue like this (which I highly doubt) this years ESC can be very very exciting when it comes to the voting

 

[Citelis]

Sooner or later a strong entry will come out and odds will go mad!

 

[Romeo]

Just to let you know... a few days ago Romania were 4th favourite to win

 

[darkap]

Odds are always strange. I still remember the useless bump up of Ireland and United Kingdom during the Eurovision Final, the latter because of the stage invasion that could bring votes (what? ahah). They were right about Israel and Cyprus battling for the win, but that was easy to guess.

P.s.: this thread gives Internal Error if you try to open it, I needed to click the latest post to enter

 

[NemesisNick]

I wouldn't believe bookies' odds just yet. A lot of countries have yet to choose their entries. In addition, I think there are a few instances of countries which have announced their artist and song title, but have yet to make a recording or live performance publicly available.

From what I can gather bookies go on past performance in compiling their odds. Regarding Russia, Dima Bilan represented Russia in 2006 with "Never Let You Go" and finished second. Two years later, in 2008, he represented Russia again, this time with "Believe", and won. More recently, Sergey Lazarev represented Russia in 2016 with "You Are the Only One" and finished third overall (he finished fifth in the jury vote and won the televote) , so it's hardly surprising that with Sergey Lazarev back to represent Russia in 2019, the bookies have set Russia as the favourite to win this year. Still the Dima Bilan's win on his second attempt at the ESC is no guarantee that Sergey Lazarev will win on his second attempt at ESC this year. Sergey Lazarev may place lower than overall 3rd in this year's ESC final, or worse still not even qualify for the Grand Final! The song which Sergey Lazarev will sing hasn't been announced yet, surely the song he has to sing, and the staging will determine how well or badly he does in ESC 2019.

 

[Alaska49]

odds are so weird this year. when france revealed the songs they immediately shot to top 3 because of bilal, then fell out of it once it looked like seemone would win after semi 2, but then bilal won and they have stayed in the same place. also all non-italy selected entries being so low lol people are just bitter right now. once we have all or near all entries we can come back to odds.

 

[Storm]

I wouldn't believe bookies' odds just yet. A lot of countries have yet to choose their entries. In addition, I think there are a few instances of countries which have announced their artist and song title, but have yet to make a recording or live performance publicly available.

From what I can gather bookies go on past performance in compiling their odds. Regarding Russia, Dima Bilan represented Russia in 2006 with "Never Let You Go" and finished second. Two years later, in 2008, he represented Russia again, this time with "Believe", and won. More recently, Sergey Lazarev represented Russia in 2016 with "You Are the Only One" and finished third overall (he finished fifth in the jury vote and won the televote) , so it's hardly surprising that with Sergey Lazarev back to represent Russia in 2019, the bookies have set Russia as the favourite to win this year. Still the Dima Bilan's win on his second attempt at the ESC is no guarantee that Sergey Lazarev will win on his second attempt at ESC this year. Sergey Lazarev may place lower than overall 3rd in this year's ESC final, or worse still not even qualify for the Grand Final! The song which Sergey Lazarev will sing hasn't been announced yet, surely the song he has to sing, and the staging will determine how well or badly he does in ESC 2019.

Yeah, returning artists always do well with the bookmakers. Remember how Rybak was Top 3 during most of ESC first week and in the end he (rightfully) finished somewhere around 15 with his cheesy song.

 

[4815162342]

Update

Russia 4.7
Sweden 7.8
3. Italy 16.5
4. Ukraine 18
The Netherlands 23
Belgium 26
Norway 26
Armenia 29
9. France 30
Cyprus 34
Portugal 38
Greece 38
Malta 40
Iceland 42
Switzerland 42
16. Slovenia 44
17. Denmark 48
17. Spain 48
Ireland 48
Austria 55
Azerbaijan 60
22. Germany 70
Finland 70
24. Australia 75
24. Lithuania 75
Belarus 80
Israel 80
Poland 80
29. Czech Republic 95
30. Hungary 100
31. Estonia 120
31. Romania 120
31. United Kingdom 120
Georgia 140
FYR Macedonia 170
Moldova 190
37. Albania 230
San Marino 230
39. Croatia 270
Serbia 270
41. Latvia 330
42. Montenegro 440

 

[NNR]

I'd have an each way bet on Albania at 230/1.

Other than that, Lithuania are far too high.

 

[ZoboCamel]

I'd have an each way bet on Albania at 230/1.

Other than that, Lithuania are far too high.

I'm personally trying to snap up some top-10 odds for Albania on Betfair (at around 18/1). It's just a matter of trying to go as long as I can while still getting someone to lay for me... the 8/1 currently offered is kind of tempting, but I'd like more.

More generally, I feel like the odds on Estonia are a little too long. It's not really a big stand-out, but it's a competent pop song with staging potential, a telegenic singer and lots of camera engagement, which could be enough if we end up with another year like 2011. I mean, he's not my most expected winner, and I'd probably guess Estonia at around 10th as-is... but 120 seems a bit long.

 

[Alaska49]

odds are about winners though. if you don't win, it doesn't matter if you were 2nd or 26th. and while victor might surprise us with his placement, he just is not winning lol.

germany should be down there with montenegro, btw

 

[LastDreamer]

Russia at # 1 is not fun joke.

 

[njdevils94]

Norway is a good shout.

 

[carl1]

I'm personally trying to snap up some top-10 odds for Albania on Betfair (at around 18/1). It's just a matter of trying to go as long as I can while still getting someone to lay for me... the 8/1 currently offered is kind of tempting, but I'd like more.

More generally, I feel like the odds on Estonia are a little too long. It's not really a big stand-out, but it's a competent pop song with staging potential, a telegenic singer and lots of camera engagement, which could be enough if we end up with another year like 2011. I mean, he's not my most expected winner, and I'd probably guess Estonia at around 10th as-is... but 120 seems a bit long.

The long odds for Estonia are justified. Why? Just go look at his semi final performance instead of the final (in final the prerecorded backing vocals were allowed). His vocal is horrible. His high notes is not even singing, it's basically screaming. We couldn't win with powerhouses La Forza and Goodbye to Yesterday, we sure as hell aren't winning with Storm. More value is Estonia to not qualify.

 

[NNR]

The long odds for Estonia are justified. Why? Just go look at his semi final performance instead of the final (in final the prerecorded backing vocals were allowed). His vocal is horrible. His high notes is not even singing, it's basically screaming. We couldn't win with powerhouses La Forza and Goodbye to Yesterday, we sure as hell aren't winning with Storm. More value is Estonia to not qualify.

I see what you mean in terms of the vocals, but I think in this year you stand a decent chance if Crone can fix his vocals. The song itself with good staging could easily make top 10.