Dark horses / Flops

[ayzelto]

I don’t think this thread has been opened yet, so let’s go!

 

[ayzelto]

I'll get started:

Dark horses:
- As much as eurofans are underestimating this one, I think the support from the juries will be big.
- A televote magnet. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the top 10 in the Grand Final.
- I wouldn't rule out their qualification, which would be a success seeing how strong semifinal 1 is.

Flops:
I've had this feeling since the very first time I saw them live (in the national final).
Although the song is catchy, the whole thing is ruined by her performance and vocals. I wouldn't be surprised if she finishes last tbh.
I think they could be top 10, and I love the song, but Ukraine being in 3rd place in the odds is quite ridiculous if I am objective.

 

[MopManMoss]

I'll get started:

Dark horses:
- As much as eurofans are underestimating this one, I think the support from the juries will be big.

This assumes it qualifies

 

[MS.]

I'll get started:

Dark horses:
- As much as eurofans are underestimating this one, I think the support from the juries will be big.
- A televote magnet. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the top 10 in the Grand Final.
- I wouldn't rule out their qualification, which would be success seeing how strong semifinal 1 is.

Flops:
I've had this feeling since the very first time I saw them live (in the national final).
Although the song is catchy, the whole thing is ruined by her performance and vocals. I wouldn't be surprised if she finishes last tbh.
I think they could be top 10, and I love the song, but Ukraine being in 3rd place in the odds is quite ridiculous if I am objective.

I agree with most things here especially:
Switzerland if they get the staging and the visuals right it has a great potential even with the public vote in the semis. Especially because of the context obviously. Bookies have it as qualified not for nothing.
I also think Uk may flop hard unfortunately because this is not the type of song that juries will heavily support i think and i don't see other nations voting for it as their favorite neither.

But i am not sure about 2 of these:
Czech republic: I agree that their live performances have been bad but they are getting better and if they nail the visuals perfectly in liverpool as they did in their clip it still has a potential of a top 5. But yeah it really can go either way. And it also can finish outside of the top 10.

Juries will burry Ukraine's chances this time, but i won't be surprised if Ukraine end up even winning the televote again honestly.It is still a possibility. So i can understand the bookies. With the huge ukrainian diaspora in all Europe and with people from whole europe wanting to show support for ukraine everything can happen. Even though i agree with you that at the end it is probably finishing top 10 and not higher.

Other dark horses for me are:
I think that Alika's voice is a huge jury pleaser. So if she qualifies she will get huge points from jurys.
I'm personnally not a fan of the song. But Noa Kirel is a famous artist who will obviously sell it extremely well. Jurys will easily support a famous artist with a great voice, and if she nails her staging and her moves she has a chance.
i think eurofans tend to underestimate how many rock fans there are. And passionate rock fans vote massively. I've seen people saying that Germany may end up last but i don't see that personnally. It can even finish top 10 maybe.

 

[ayzelto]

I agree with most things here especially:
Switzerland if they get the staging and the visuals right it has a great potential even with the public vote in the semis. Especially because of the context obviously. Bookies have it as qualified not for nothing.
I also think Uk may flop hard unfortunately because this is not the type of song that juries will heavily support i think and i don't see other nations voting for it as their favorite neither.

But i am not sure about 2 of these:
Czech republic: I agree that their live performances have been bad but they are getting better and if they nail the visuals perfectly in liverpool as they did in their clip it still has a potential of a top 5. But yeah it really can go either way. And it also can finish outside of the top 10.

Juries will burry Ukraine's chances this time, but i won't be surprised if Ukraine end up even winning the televote again honestly.It is still a possibility. So i can understand the bookies. With the huge ukrainian diaspora in all Europe and with people from whole europe wanting to show support for ukraine everything can happen. Even though i agree with you that at the end it is probably finishing top 10 and not higher.

Other dark horses for me are:
I think that Alika's voice is a huge jury pleaser. So if she qualifies she will get huge points from jurys.
I'm personnally not a fan of the song. But Noa Kirel is a famous artist who will obviously sell it extremely well. Jurys will easily support a famous artist with a great voice, and if she nails her staging and her moves she has a chance.
i think eurofans tend to underestimate how many rock fans there are. And passionate rock fans vote massively. I've seen people saying that Germany may end up last but i don't see that personnally. It can even finish top 10 maybe.

I didn’t include Israel as they may not be a favourite in the forum, but they are everywhere else, including the odds.

Germany… I have my doubts. But they won’t be last, that’s for sure.

 

[Realest]

Dark Horses:

I think they will qualify even without Juries.
They could reach the Top10
Top15 in the Televote is possible here

Flops:

Well...you can guess which Country I would put here, but I dont want to offend anyone

 

[GRE]

Dark horse => Italy, Estonia, Lithuania

Flops => UK, Ukraine

 

[midnightsun]

I think that Alika's voice is a huge jury pleaser. So if she qualifies she will get huge points from jurys.

I‘m not so sure (though I wish, she‘s in my top 10). Estonia is always listed as one of the jury pleasers and yes, I won’t rule it out.

BUT - when did the juries ever preferred a mainstream ballad? The only time they vote for ballads is when it is NOT a classic ballad but if it’s something extra, out of the box. Estonia is a classic ballad, the kind juries have been neglecting the past years.

could go either way. Could be dark horse, could be a flop again, since it has to be in a country‘s top 10 to get points and I can picture it ending up in many countries #12-15 so altogether it’ll end up bottom 5 again. At the moment I‘m more at the optimistic side though. :-) Michael Schulte wasn’t exactly a favourite before the GF and look where he‘d end up.

FF, could be (but I admit it could also be the opposite) or , given how everyone in the bubble is hyped about them at the moment. I‘d also throw in if they don’t deliver live and could also fail with the public.

 

[Looren]

Dark horses :

I have the feeling Noa will pull off a hell of a performance, Israel can end up top 5

I think can get left side of scorebiard

Flop :

I feel will underperform, something like 15-20

will flop in semi I think

 

[HarryUK]

If the UK flops then we'll go back to slating Eurovision and send the Frock Destroyers next year lol

 

[Looren]

If the UK flops then we'll go back to slating Eurovision and send the Frock Destroyers next year lol

Yeah I hope you won't flop, but right now I don't really believe a lot in UK, am not sure at all about how Mae will perform it

 

[HarryUK]

Yeah I hope you won't flop, but right now I don't really believe a lot in UK, am not sure at all about how Mae will perform it

I just think the UK loving Eurovision is subject to us continuing to finish in the top 10 regardless of what we send don't blame me, blame the self righteous public here who still think Europe owe us for WW2

 

[MS.]

I‘m not so sure (though I wish, she‘s in my top 10). Estonia is always listed as one of the jury pleasers and yes, I won’t rule it out.

BUT - when did the juries ever preferred a mainstream ballad? The only time they vote for ballads is when it is NOT a classic ballad but if it’s something extra, out of the box. Estonia is a classic ballad, the kind juries have been neglecting the past years.

could go either way. Could be dark horse, could be a flop again, since it has to be in a country‘s top 10 to get points and I can picture it ending up in many countries #12-15 so altogether it’ll end up bottom 5 again. At the moment I‘m more at the optimistic side though. :-) Michael Schulte wasn’t exactly a favourite before the GF and look where he‘d end up.

FF, could be (but I admit it could also be the opposite) or , given how everyone in the bubble is hyped about them at the moment. I‘d also throw in if they don’t deliver live and could also fail with the public.

i don't agree honestly about what you said about classic ballads not being supported by juries.
Look at Australia last year in 2022, a classic ballad that was heavily supported by juries. Same with Switzerland. Same with Azerbaijan. I think Alika is a bit better than them vocally. Maybe there is a contest with Sheldon but Sheldon really got very low points from the public partly because Australia is always getting very low points with the public vote lately.
I'm just saying a top 10 is very possible for Alika. Even though 10-15 is the most likely.

 

[ESC94]

I agree with most things here especially:
Switzerland if they get the staging and the visuals right it has a great potential even with the public vote in the semis. Especially because of the context obviously. Bookies have it as qualified not for nothing.
I also think Uk may flop hard unfortunately because this is not the type of song that juries will heavily support i think and i don't see other nations voting for it as their favorite neither.

But i am not sure about 2 of these:
Czech republic: I agree that their live performances have been bad but they are getting better and if they nail the visuals perfectly in liverpool as they did in their clip it still has a potential of a top 5. But yeah it really can go either way. And it also can finish outside of the top 10.

Juries will burry Ukraine's chances this time, but i won't be surprised if Ukraine end up even winning the televote again honestly.It is still a possibility. So i can understand the bookies. With the huge ukrainian diaspora in all Europe and with people from whole europe wanting to show support for ukraine everything can happen. Even though i agree with you that at the end it is probably finishing top 10 and not higher.

Other dark horses for me are:
I think that Alika's voice is a huge jury pleaser. So if she qualifies she will get huge points from jurys.
I'm personnally not a fan of the song. But Noa Kirel is a famous artist who will obviously sell it extremely well. Jurys will easily support a famous artist with a great voice, and if she nails her staging and her moves she has a chance.
i think eurofans tend to underestimate how many rock fans there are. And passionate rock fans vote massively. I've seen people saying that Germany may end up last but i don't see that personnally. It can even finish top 10 maybe.

Well, I´m rather sceptical about that. I can tell at least from my colleagues at work or people I meet regularly that the war is currently not that present in their mind anymore and even in the news it´s not that big at the moment. Sure you still get coverage, but not as much as at the beginning. So I can´t see this big "solidarity vote" happening. I also read somewhere that the Ukranian diaspora isn´t really enthusiastic about the song either.

 

[midnightsun]

Sheldon’s song wasn’t a "classic ballad". Maybe we understand this term differently.
Azerbaijan and Switzerland weren’t a classic ballad either.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

I feel like Slovenia will flop. I've no strong opinion on the song personally, it's around the middle for me. It'll qualify but I can see it getting forgotten in the final by juries and televoters.

Not sure if it fits the meaning of a "dark horse" but I think Moldova could do quite well in the televote in the final, top 10 or maybe on a good day with favourable running order top 5. It's catchy, with ethnic elements and they will nail the staging.The jury will kill it though.

Similarly, Germany could get top 10 in the televote if the staging and performance are good (needed an upgrade from the NF). Jury will rank it low but yes I feel their televote could surprise people if they get things right on the night.

 

[Fluke]

I think Croatia is likely to win, but no other Eurofans seem to think so yet. Maybe it will be like Conchita 2014, and everyone will realize it when the rehearsals start.

I'm not really sure what even counts as "most people's expectations", the odds?

Azerbaijan, Denmark and Romania can at least make the finals, which would be a surprise to most here, but not to me. I especially don't get why Azerbaijan is cast off completely, they've only failed to make the final once, and that song was truly horrid and cold, TuralTuranX are very sweet and likable. Also i got a feeling Poland will make the final at the expense of a minor Eurofan favorite, causing further rage.

As for disappointments, i don't think Norway or Portugal is gonna do that good, just 10-15 at best, but maybe that's not the general view either. UK i think might really disappear among the similar entries from Austria and Israel, who might not make top 10 either, especially the latter if she comes across as unlikable and/or unimpressive.

Armenia might be the biggest one, i think she may not even make the final, remember "Walking Out"? Georgia i'm not all that sure about either, the country has never really done well even when they sent very appealing songs, and the song's kind of difficult and weird for most viewers. And Moldova's qualification is less than sure too, i don't know why so many seem to think they're in, really, a small unpopular country sending unfunny, dated ethno-kitsch?!?

So overall i'd say:
Dark horses: Croatia and Romania
Flops: UK, Armenia, Israel, Norway

 

[Leydan]

Everyone listing the UK as a flop. we love the positivity.

 

[MopManMoss]

I think Croatia is likely to win, but no other Eurofans seem to think so yet. Maybe it will be like Conchita 2014, and everyone will realize it when the rehearsals start.

that is because the rest of the eurofans live onplanet Earth

 

[ayzelto]

I think Croatia is likely to win, but no other Eurofans seem to think so yet. Maybe it will be like Conchita 2014, and everyone will realize it when the rehearsals start.

I'm not really sure what even counts as "most people's expectations", the odds?

Azerbaijan, Denmark and Romania can at least make the finals, which would be a surprise to most here, but not to me. I especially don't get why Azerbaijan is cast off completely, they've only failed to make the final once, and that song was truly horrid and cold, TuralTuranX are very sweet and likable. Also i got a feeling Poland will make the final at the expense of a minor Eurofan favorite, causing further rage.

As for disappointments, i don't think Norway or Portugal is gonna do that good, just 10-15 at best, but maybe that's not the general view either. UK i think might really disappear among the similar entries from Austria and Israel, who might not make top 10 either, especially the latter if she comes across as unlikable and/or unimpressive.

Armenia might be the biggest one, i think she may not even make the final, remember "Walking Out"? Georgia i'm not all that sure about either, the country has never really done well even when they sent very appealing songs, and the song's kind of difficult and weird for most viewers. And Moldova's qualification is less than sure too, i don't know why so many seem to think they're in, really, a small unpopular country sending unfunny, dated ethno-kitsch?!?

So overall i'd say:
Dark horses: Croatia and Romania
Flops: UK, Armenia, Israel, Norway

Croatia likely to win what? The whole thing??