I salute Bulgaria for bringing interesting content when it comes to their Eurovision entries, I wished more countries did that! It was so interesting when they posted the rehearsals of EQUINOX in 2018, and did a lot of interviews and behind the scenes stuff. It still bothers me that it didn’t come top ten, at least, but the staging was a hot mess. It still came 14th with that performance, so what could’ve been for «Bones» with a more stellar performance is something I’m occasionally thinking about, which is the thing I’m annoyed by now that I will never know how «Tears Getting Sober» would’ve fared in the contest. But unless Bulgaria really messed up the staging for this one, it would be a top ten for sure. I think, that if this were not win, then it would do something like pre-favorites Aram, Amir or Gabbani and place around 4th-6th place, and that would still be good if their ambitions actually never were to win as they stated earlier.
And I’m just basing this on patterns, so my claim is vague, but usually pre-favorites do well (to a certain degree, depends how they see it of course) - and TGS might not be comparable to Amir and Gabbani’s songs but their stagings (and vocals) were debatable, and I don’t think we would have had to worry about that from Bulgaria this year. I’ll still say that this would finish 6-8th at worst, and that it could’ve won if everything got together in Rotterdam
However I do not know for sure because I thought EQUINOX were a sure top ten till semi1 happened, but maybe TGS has a broader appeal than «Bones»...