Betting Odds for ESC 2011

[A.B.]

@A.B.- I honestly would like to see Hungary to win, just so we could have a new Eurovision host. I wanna see how they'll do things
Just wondering, what's your top 5 prediction?

Edit: I forgot to add: I see Bulgaria and Georgia doing well too

My top 5 prediction at the moment :
1. Norway
2. Hungary
3. Iceland
4. Poland
5. Germany

 

[Sabiondo]

I still thinking that Hungary will win, cause the ESC never was held in Central Europe before and for continental rotation it's up to a Central European try to win, no .. ?? because in the lastest years where are winners from:

Turkey (Balkans)
Ukraine (Easten Europe)
Greece (Balkanics)
Finland (Skandinavia)
Serbia (Balkans)
Russia (Easten Europe)
Norway (Skandinavia)
Germany (Westen Europe)

So its time for an Central European country to win.. if not is Hungary, i thing that Poland it will be.

 

[Joabi]

germany is officially central-europe

 

[Scooby]

Niko, so your prediction?

Hm....
I think that Russia have the biggest chance for win (even I hate that song), Hungary too, Azerbaijan (love that song, that country really deserves that win, they really try hard), Finland can surprise for top 10 (not for win).
And don't forget Lena, she can do well this year too.

France will be placed like Patricia in Moscow, UK like Jade.

 

[Grinch]

Even though I like the Azerbaijani entry a lot, I don't think that it will trouble the top 5. It's not as good as last year.

France is last year's Slovakia. It will flop.

The UK. After listening to their live performance of the song I must say that they have 0 chances to enter the top 10. Hadise has been saved by the belly dancing. They will score points only if they will perform the song naked.

Sweden is a big kitsch and won't appeal to Eastern Europe. I doubt that Eric will qualify for the grand final

Estonia is nice and will enter the top 10, but not a winner.

It's between Norway and Hungary for the trophy.

Although you eliminated my favourite entries but if your predictions come true, then it'll be a very exciting contest

 

[A.B.]

Although you eliminated my favourite entries but if your predictions come true, then it'll be a very exciting contest

I was right about last year's Slovakian flop (and please remember that everyone said that it will win). I also predicted right Croatia's flop. I was wrong though about Ireland. I really though Niamh could win it again (but I guess that it was because of the fact that "It's for you" was my favourite song of the year 2010...)

I say that Norway will win. It has all the ingredients.

 

[AlekS]

Let's look at the latest "ingredients" starting from 2008.
Usually the winner is someone uber-simple, someone who has horrible live vocals, someone with a primitive song, someone who appeals to teenagers, someone who's in the top-3, top-5 according to bookmakers (let's wait for the dress rehearsals).


The UK will win (or 2nd place) and France will be 9th or 8th. Ukraine will be 10th again. Azerbaijan will be 4th or 5th. Estonia will be 6th-7th as well as Russia (tbh they should stop worrying for finishing out of top-15, imo they have already reserved top-15 place forever). If Sweden qualifies he won't enter the top-10. Kitsch is dead + I agree that it won't appeal to Eastern Europe. I think that Slovenia has good chances for the top-10, as well as Turkey and Germany.

ps. I hate bookmakers

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

Imo the countries that have a big chance of winning are United Kingdom, Sweden, Russia, Azerbaijan and Germany. I cant see anybody else getting it really.

 

[GRE]

Let's look at the latest "ingredients" starting from 2008.
Usually the winner is someone uber-simple, someone who has horrible live vocals, someone with a primitive song, someone who appeals to teenagers, someone who's in the top-3, top-5 according to bookmakers (let's wait for the dress rehearsals).


The UK will win (or 2nd place) and France will be 9th or 8th. Ukraine will be 10th again. Azerbaijan will be 4th or 5th. Estonia will be 6th-7th as well as Russia (tbh they should stop worrying for finishing out of top-15, imo they have already reserved top-15 place forever). If Sweden qualifies he won't enter the top-10. Kitsch is dead + I agree that it won't appeal to Eastern Europe. I think that Slovenia has good chances for the top-10, as well as Turkey and Germany.

ps. I hate bookmakers

Aleks,
i agree a lot with you!
I Also believe that France will be in the bottom of top10.
Also believe that Russia and Estonia will be close to top5.
Also believe tha United Kindgom and Azerbaijan will be in top 5 (and maybe in top3).
But,
i believe that the country that is closest to the victory is Denmark!
And maybe we will see some pleasent surprises in top10 with Latvia and Switzerland!(dark horses imao)

 

[GRE]

I will tell you now,something that you maybe have not noticed.
In past 4 years ,the winning song is only one single word!
2007=>Molitva
2008=>Believe
2009=>Fairytale
2010=>Satelite

So,if this situation continues,which countries have only one word in the title of their song?
France (Sognu)
Sweden (Popular)
(also Ireland and Romania).

 

[MrJadeEwen]

Around this time last year (the week before rehearsals)

Azerbaijan were top
Israel 2nd
Germany 3rd

with Israel & Germany rather close on both, then when we hit rehearsals Germany went to the top so i think rehearsals are gonna prove the most here

 

[pronto100]

It's a tough shout this year. There are several good songs which all deserve to win! However, there can only be one winner. I rate the following:-

1st .....Hungary
2nd.....Poland
3rd......Azerbaijan
4th......Switzerland
5th......U.K.

 

[Rusch]

Strange: They now presenting France as a clear winning song with a big lead. I still wonder, what is so special about that song.

 

[A.B.]

Strange: They now presenting France as a clear winning song with a big lead. I still wonder, what is so special about that song.

Welcome to the club! I'm 99% sure that France will flop big time in the scoreboard! It's Slovakia 2010 deja-vu!

 

[Quent91]

It's Slovakia 2010 déjà-vu!

I don't get what you're saying...
It's not even the same kind of music...

 

[Scooby]

Kristina (Slovakia 2010) is very weak vocal and everybody know that.
And compare Kristina and Amaury is ridiculously

 

[Rusch]

Kristina (Slovakia 2010) is very weak vocal and everybody know that.
And compare Kristina and Amaury is ridiculously

The voice wasn`t meant. Last year Slovakia was quite a favourite. I also expected that song in the top 10, but they failed to reach the final. AB meant, that the same could happen to France this year, but I doubt it. I sure France will end up Top 10. Despite my disliking this song, there are many, that like this song quite much. I can accept that.

 

[dogmeat]

You clearly have no idea know how betting odds work.

Ok, maybe i should elaborate. Leader's odds this year vary around 5, what means you can earn 5 times as much as you bet if it wins. Betfair, which we quote here as most reliable source, works as a betting platform, not as a bookmaker, what means you place bets against other users who bet on the scenario opposite to yours. France's odds being on 5 means there are approximately as many people betting who believe its chances are above 20% as those who estimate it below 20% (assuming both sides bet the same sum to simplify things; in fact those are amounts of money both sides are ready to bet that are meant to be equal).

20%!

20% chance of victory! It doesn't mean "a clear winning with a big lead"!

Saying odds say nothing because the favourite didn't win last year is nonsense! If the leader is in average given odds varying around 5 (i don't know any stats about past years), they are meant to be "right" once a 5 years.

One more thing: if you're so sure about someone's odds being wrong, place a bet! After all, this is the fundament of betting: belief that the others are wrong. Only on Betfair there's already 279309€ in the game this year. On the forum you can speak out any predictions you want, no matter how unrealistic they are, but when it comes to spending money, people aren't that careless. That's why i'll always treat odds more seriously than some random user who just comes and says "the odds are wrong!"

 

[damienn]

I still thinking that Hungary will win, cause the ESC never was held in Central Europe before and for continental rotation it's up to a Central European try to win, no .. ?? because in the lastest years where are winners from:
So its time for an Central European country to win.. if not is Hungary, i thing that Poland it will be.

Never?
Well, Germany has hosted it twice and so has Switzerland, and Austria have hosted it once , so I wouldn't say never.

 

[Quent91]

yes, but they are considered as Western countries