Portugal PORTUGAL 2025 - Napa - Deslocado

[ESC United Mod Team]

 

[Ana Raquel]

I can't see Napa losing televote. It think Fernando will go 10 + 10 (it should be enough to win anyway)

 

[JSSArcos]

Televote

Napa -) Exclusively relies on regional votes from Madeira, with the possibility of investment as a way to promote the island. Very few people in Continental Portugal voted for them. And forget views, this comes from tik tok and young people and they don't vote for it. The issue here is purely regional
Josh -) Has the support of the Portuguese fandom, not entirely, but I would estimate that 40-50%. It’s a massive voting bloc. (The televote winner has usually been the fandom’s favorite, but surprises can happen.)
Fernando Daniel -) He has his own fanbase and knows how to mobilize them effectively. Additionally, if winning is truly his dream, he could invest a little. (Money wouldn’t be a big issue for him—just a conspiracy theory, but he has shown immense dedication…)
Diana -) She will receive votes from the average RTP viewer, not from the fandom, but this could still have some importance, even though her vote share will clearly be the lowest.
Henka -) Will get a bit of everything: votes from RTP’s younger, less conservative viewers and some support from the fandom, but not enough to reach the top 5, in my prediction.
Pay close attention to Marco Rodrigues—he has his own fans, and I’m from his "hometown" (Arcos de Valdevez). There is definitely some mobilization happening, as he is a very beloved singer here and will likely get some votes from more conservative viewers.

the televote open since Monday, allows whoever is willing to make a greater investment (be it themselves or their fans) to win. This would be different if we only had 15 minutes like in other countries...

my predicition:
12-FD
10-NAPA
8-JOSH
7-DIANA
6-HENKA Or Marco

Jury, this is more difficult. And that just depends on who RTP will choose: following how the jury voted in the last editions:
12-Josh
10-Diana
8-NAPA OR FD (the 12 from the Madeira jury will make a difference, because it will be close with FD...)
7-FD OR NAPA
6-Marco or Margarida Or Emmy

(I'm scared of what might happen tomorrow.)

In any case, a more "commercial" jury will likely give an 10 of FD.
I predict his victory. But Josh and Napa definitely have something to say, and I wouldn't be surprised if Diana gets close.

It will be decided by details tomorrow, and we will have surprises (look at the televote percentages, no one has ever won by more than 20%, it's always close).

but I'm totally sure (90%) that Josh will win the jury and FD will win the televote

 

[joao]

hum... I think it will be something like:

Jury:

12 - Diana
10 - Fernando
8 - Josh

Televote:

12 - Napa
10 - Fernando
8 - Josh

 

[joao]

double post

 

[goncalovieira]

I can't see Napa losing televote. It think Fernando will go 10 + 10 (it should be enough to win anyway)

Fernando has a considerable fandom composed mainly of teenagers and wine mums... All together. They have several whatsapp groups where they share the amount of votes, and there are (probably) thousands so far...

 

[JSSArcos]

Fernando has a considerable fandom composed mainly of teenagers and wine mums... All together. They have several whatsapp groups where they share the amount of votes, and there are (probably) thousands so far...

I would love to know the number of total votes, but only the % should come out as always....

 

[goncalovieira]

I would love to know the number of total votes, but only the % should come out as always....

If the record is 80k, this year will be bigger I think...

 

[Ana Raquel]

Fernando has a considerable fandom composed mainly of teenagers and wine mums... All together. They have several whatsapp groups where they share the amount of votes, and there are (probably) thousands so far...

But I don't think that will be enough to beat NAPA, which seems to be having more momentum when it matters?

But then again we are talking about fangirls so you might have a point

 

[gigi_copp3]

I've heard the live performance of Medo. It's either this or Tristeza for me. Both would put in 1st place in my top (not a difficult job btw)

 

[goncalovieira]

But I don't think that will be enough to beat NAPA, which seems to be having more momentum when it matters?

But then again we are talking about fangirls so you might have a point

There is the momentum but it is on spotify and tik tok. I am sure most of those people do not vote and watch fdc.

 

[Ana Raquel]

There is the momentum but it is on spotify and tik tok. I am sure most of those people do not vote and watch fdc.

Sure they might not watch the show regularly or ever vote in fdc again but that doesn't mean they won't vote for this specific song in this specific edition. As long as there is something that triggers those votes.

while not exactly similar situation due to different circumstances, I don't think all the Brazilians last year who voted for Leo Middea in the final watched the show to vote for him - they may just have heard about the xenophobic comments, saw there was a voting going on, and voted for him and then they will probably never see a word of fdc again unless another controversy like this one happens.

plus they have the madeira votes too, which are also pretty expressive.

 

[goncalovieira]

Wish us all luck for tonight... I think we will need it.

 

[joao]

As long Fernando, Diana or Josh wins. we are good to go!

Although Josh would be last resource due to the staging. So keeping my fingers crossed for Fernando (altough the song is not my cup of tea it does work live. So I hope he can make it).

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

I'm kinda indifferent now that is clear Peculiar doesn't stand a chance. It's probably Josh vs Fernando with Napa as a spoiler. I find Josh to be pretentious alt-pop that feels more of the same from us and Fernando is cookie-cutter radio-friendly song for teen girls. Both would do respectable in Basel regardless of my personal opinion.

There is also a chance for the jury to throw a curveball and give the highest score to someone like Diana (would be inspiring).

 

[joao]

I'm almost sure Diana will get 12pts from the jury. "Eu sei que o amor" might also get quite a few points, but not enough to make TOP3 I think.

Peculiar needs to comeback another year with something slightly stronger and with a stage theme that doesn't clash with other entries (because if it wins is clashing with Norway and Armenia).

 

[goncalovieira]

I'm almost sure Diana will get 12pts from the jury. "Eu sei que o amor" might also get quite a few points, but not enough to make TOP3 I think.

Peculiar needs to comeback another year with something slightly stronger and with a stage theme that doesn't clash with other entries (because if it wins is clashing with Norway and Armenia).

The jury's top 3 look more or less locked for me. Josh, Diana and Fernando Daniel.
I hope mainland juries will be able to cancel NAPA. They are getting top marks from Azores and Madeira.

 

[Shevek]

Here we go. This is an above average FdC. My personal favourites are "Tristeza" and "Cotovia", but I can live with the live rendition of "Medo", that is quite middle of the road stuff. Boa sorte para todos os finalistas.

 

[goncalovieira]

Which song do you think will stand in Eurovision with the current lineup?
Our semifinal is completely stacked with pop songs. The only ballad is coming from a male singer, and is pretty chanceless.
So, Josh or Fernando Daniel may fit well there.
Diana Vilarinho would be great as well. However, there are not many female singers, Justyina and Beatrice, are bringing ethnic sounds. They would cancel each other, probably...

 

[Shevek]

Which song do you think will stand in Eurovision with the current lineup?
Our semifinal is completely stacked with pop songs. The only ballad is coming from a male singer, and is pretty chanceless.
So, Josh or Fernando Daniel may fit well there.
Diana Vilarinho would be great as well. However, there are not many female singers, Justyina and Beatrice, are bringing ethnic sounds. They would cancel each other, probably...

I think that FD will win. Both "Tristeza" and "Medo" could fare well. However, I think that Josh's inexperience may hurt him more. Waiting for this evening's live renditions.

 

[Decayingbooks]

Peculiar needs to comeback another year with something slightly stronger and with a stage theme that doesn't clash with other entries (because if it wins is clashing with Norway and Armenia).

To be fair, Peculiar tried to compete last year but wasn't among the 6 picked through the free submission option.