Who will qualify from Semi 2? 2019

[FoxOfShadows]

Who will qualify from Semi 2?

 

[Realest]

 

[Realest]

Safe:
Chanceless:
Borderline:

I choose as the last 3 Qualifiers.

 

[darkap]

Armenia - Romania - Sweden - Switzerland from the 1st half
Albania - Croatia - Lithuania - Netherlands - Norway - Russia from the 2nd half

Possible swaps: Croatia -> Azerbaijan / Lithuania -> Malta

 

[burrito]

I'm sure about , and . will advance thanks to the juries, thanks to the televote.
The other three are a bit harder to predict, but I'm betting on as the safest of the rest.
The last ones may be (it's quite catchy) and (people seem to actually like it)

I feel like this semi is a bit easier to advance from than from semi 1.

 

[Ichbinjari]

Safe: ::
Stand no chance:
Borderline:

I think will make it

 

[Citelis]

1.
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10.
That will be the HORRIBLE results of Semi-Final 2

 

[Laepo1]

are the safest bets

 

[0scar]

and the rest ?? not sure

 

[Ana Raquel]

1st - 10th

11th prob being

 

[Alaska49]

this semi is so easy lol it's clearly and oh crap that's 11 entries. how is one of them not going to qualify? and that's without even considering which at this moment is the one entry that could place anywhere from 1st to 41st this year.


right now i have decided to sadly have as the odd woman out but it could easily be most of the others listed. i feel only are lockity locky locks. i can't really say with any confidence anyone else is safe from being squeezed out, and even less of an idea of who also dies if is meant to go forward.


the other six entries are here for the experience and i would be very surprised to see one of them advance.

 

[Ezio]

I think there is a chance that Norway gets killed off by the juries and will not garner many televotes neither. I don't see them as a lock, and neither wouldn't be shocked if they're out.

Romania is bound for a second non-qualification in a row. I don't know who'd vote for them, except for Moldova.

Lithuania is set for an upset like in 2013.

I agree with the consensus of countries advancing. Austria needs a spectacular jury vote, but that depends on who is in the juries. Televote is not hopeless and we've survived similar blood baths in 2016 and last year.
Russia, Switzerland, Netherlands will sail through. Sweden probably as well. Norway is my bet on non-qualifying.
Russia based on televotes, they probably end up outside of jury Top 10.

Armenia and Azerbaijan need to prove their live capabilities. Azerbaijan is not 100% safe imho.

Malta is a wild card. They always get tons of jury support, but with artsy fartsy jurors they could get killed off as well.

 

[FoxOfShadows]

I think is gonna be the fan flop of this semi while will sneak their first qualification in 7 years. will have their second NQ. , and will be the borderline songs

 

[Kevan1994]

Likely:

Borderline:

Have a chance but unlikely:

Very little chance:

 

[Citelis]

Austria has more chances to qualify than Switzerland!

 

[Mykola]

randomly

 

[RainyWoods]

I've got this feeling that is going to be the big fan casualty of 2019. It's not particularly jury friendly but then as it stands now, it's also kind of plain and clean cut for the kind of public vote it needs to pick up. They're probably going to have to go OTT with the staging and make it something visually memorable, or I think they'll be in big trouble. This semi is tough.

Locks:



Usually successful countries with a vendetta this year:



Countries that struggle often but are really throwing down the gauntlet this year:



Then you have with a decent enough song coupled with an amazing draw, and who are likely a dark horse and potential jury magnet.


At this point if I have to pick ten it's and then one of (whichever gives the hotter performance).

 

[BorisBubbles]

Time for my 2c for an analysis that will probably take days to write (I started this on Sunday evening lmfao and at this moment cannot predict when I will click the Post Reply button)

As in the other thread: NQ = Not qualifying, QF = Qualifying, BL = Borderline in various degrees (BL+ = advantaged, BL- = at a disadvantage, BL? = could swing either way)

Let's do this

Srbuk - "Walking out"
Sincerely a stunner, Armenia. This is an excellent song that could (and should) do very well in Tel Aviv if Good live, and should do moderately well even if the live performance is average. The biggest question mark is Srbuk: she has p bad diction (WORKING OUT TO YOUUUUUUU / UR NO LONGER A GAY CUZ I WAS YOUR CROWN (nb: wtf is this Bilal shade)) and it remains to be seen whether she can sing her song in tune. Still, 'an uptempo song in the hands of Armenia' holds enough promise in itself to render me confident in their chances.

Verdict: QF

Pænda - "Limits"
A hard one, imo, not just from a prediction perspective either. "Limits" is very much all-Jury, very little Televote and that's always a massive risk. It's a bit like "Start a Fire" in that regard, it stands out as Quality (well minus the "Let's give Dilara a lobotomy because she dared display a modicum of personality during her cover of Shirley Bassey's History Repeating" bit), but that also makes it too highbrow to do well in a Eurovision televote. It wil come down to how creatively Austria can utilize their staging in making it accessible, but their staging concepts in previous years do not inspire me with much confidence.

Verdict: BL-

Leonora - "Love is forever"
Leonora's main advantage is that her song is annoying enough that it might stick around in people's brains, but (No, Boris do NOT make a comment about Leonora's busted teeth here, lest you be branded an appearance-shamer again :'( ) it's so sweet it makes my teeth and gums rot (pfew crisis averted) and besides, it's also a really shitty song regardless lol? Normally I'd say Denmark's chances are as dead as the look in Leonora's eyes, but their draw is fortunate enough: Scandifriends + moron countries such as Germany and Ireland that will eagerly vote for the saccharine, twee, cloyingly Kumbaya crust that encases up this song's hollow repetitive drone of a message (mental note: totally c+p'ing this for tumblr) will ensure that Leonora has a fighting chance against all the other mediocre women in this semifinal, albeit a small one.

Verdict: BL-

Sarah McTernan - "22"
Part of me is certainly relieved that instead of going for something pandering and insincere, Ireland went for a pleasant, easy, radio-friendly pop song that has some built in charm. (which is great for me because I rarely like Ireland in Eurovision). Having said that, "22" is pleasant NQ fodder and would have to be excellent live to stand a fighting chance (preferably in a universe where nearly everyone else is simultaneously shit). It might have had that chance in 2011, but eight years later, I'm not quite so sure. It could come close to qualification, but by the same token could also finish LAST in the semi if Sarah's vocals are bad.

Verdict: NQ

Carousel - "That night"
Carousel exist and do not offend lol. I mean, their country ballad song is nice, but it's hard to form an opinion on something so... simply inoffensive / inoffensively simple? I do think their styling is lowkey bad tho. I'm pretty certain Sabine is younger than I am, but matronly nightgown + greyscale, girl ur a Sabine, why you're looking like an Agatha or a Mildred? Defo doing better in the jury vote I think, but not by much.

Verdict: NQ

Anna Odobescu - "Stay"
A touching, brilliantly written masterpiece send from the heavens. What a wonderful, original message of yearning, of love, of saudade. Listening to this song for the first time were the best three minutes of my life. The Passion, the fervor, the depth of this. Wow. Moved to tears. Thank God the fucking piece of shit that is LUME wasn't selected, so I can finally get to enjoy this magnificent loa instead. Definitely the best out of all the strong female-fronted entries. Can't wait to see it in the final. ^__^

Verdict: NQ

Ester Peony - "On a sunday"
Miss Havisham-inspired fanwank I enjoy this entry, idc. Obviously, it's a bit rough around the edges, but Romania only NQs when they're utter gobshite (which they were last year! Most depressing anti-depression song EVER) and this entry fortunately is not. Still, hard to slap straight-up QF status onto Romania. While "On a sunday" is fun, it's not very catchy and will need to bring ~The Fierceness~ in order to secure a slot in the funale. Put Wiwi on the UK jury plz, so they can rig this one as well (before they are murdered by anti-homophobicphobic Laura Bretan stans)

Verdict: BL+

John Lundvik - "Too late for love"
A fun gospel song from Sweden that would fit nicely in any modern-era Disney movie. I like this entry, it's well performed and fun, so watch karma strike as it crashes and burns... in the finale because lmao it's never NQ'ing come on. "Too late for love" would be at least a BL+ in the hands of Latvia, let alone Sweden.

Verdict: QF

Luca Hänni - "She got me"
The chyron "Switzerland" automatically brings with it imminent overratedness, but I think Luca can do just fine, even if he ends up being a poor performer. "She Got Me" is catchy and that's always a plus. Besides, it's been so long since an ostentibly Cute Guy has NQ'd from any SF (last time was Miro, I think?) Now, having said that, I am prepared for Luca to fuck up majorly and NQ (Switzerland have NEVER qualified from the first half before), but the fact that he's a young, cute male with an uptempo reggaeton song in a sea of mediocre women means his odds are always going to be significantly better than anyone else in that half, other than SRBUK and Lundvik. A very cautious BL+ for now.

Verdict: BL+

Jonida Maliqi - "Ktheju tokës"
Albania's odds definitely rose post-Revamp for me. Ktheju Tokës now puts Jonida's voice central stage which can aid their odds as she's an excellent vocalist. It also came with a much welcome styling change. Jonida needed to have a mature, classic look in FiK because of Albania's boner for all things hagfish, but her long flowing raven locks and mermaid dress in the revamp video also make Jonida appear younger and more charismatic as well. All she needs now is an act and I think I want a revamp of her FiK Staging: Put her in an iridescent dress and use it to reflect spotlights from her, as if she's glowing in the dark. If Albania can pull this, or something similar off, they'll be in the finals in no time.

Verdict: BL+

Chingiz - "Truth"
I do like the sound of "Truth" if I'm honest. It similar to the work of Belgian synthpop bands, except cheaper and not as good. "Truth" is a weird one though because we have ZERO information on how good Chingiz really is (let alone whether Chingiz really exists and isn't a very realistic hologram constructed from pixels and leftover Kirkorov cartilage) or what Azerbaijan are planning (probably something insane and garish, like usual ). We lack a typical ESC-style trainwreck in this year, and I have my eyes on this one to deliver it. Note though that Experimental Azerbaijan is always on the cusp (8th-12th), much like Serbia, so I don't feel too comfortable handing out QF status without any further information.
Verdict: BL+

Roko - "the Dream"
If anything, we have to thank Sergey for DESTROYING Roko's chances of making the finals hooray! Idk, I'm not sure why people think this can qualify. "My Friend" had obvious meme potential. "The Dream" is like "Where I Am", it's one giant vocal exercise that repeats the same, shallow vocabulary ad nauseam. Croatia is also ALONE in the SF without their Yugo clear allies (do Croatians and Macedonians like each other?), they will need to put in a lot of effort to not go home in a bottom 3 placement, let alone advance.
Verdict: NQ

Jurij Veklenko - "Run with the lions"
Laffing my ass off at the name retcon btw: Destroying the Lithuanian name to go for something which sounds decidedly UKRAINIAN Anyway, hard to gauge "Run with the lions" because the Revamp is coming, but based on the old version I'm putting them in BL. Lithuania's draw is excellent with all of their diasporia countries present, but Run with the lions has such a weak-ass chorus it might end up making zero impact with all of the others, narrowly missing finals as a result. The new version could easily upgrade their rating to BL+ though.
Verdict: BL-

Michela - "Chameleon"
No idea, to be honest lol. Juries will love it, all of Malta's usual allies are present (Russia, Azerbaijan, Italy, UK, Croatia, the only ones not present are San Marino and Cyprus). I think the song is good outside of the drop imo, but... how good is Michela? We know Sabo-Tage Baptiste is doing the staging, but we also know what a crapshoot she can be. This song can sing between WINNING the semifinal and like... finishing third last with 0 televote points lmao.

Verdict: BL?

Duncan Laurence - "Arcade"
A touching, show-stopping entry that WILL stand out because we know that Duncan is good live! Staging will not impact the song too much, even with Hans Pancake doing it; The man loves drawn-out camera angles, which works better with lowtempo quiet ballads anyway. It should be an easy qualification for the Netherlands, anything less would be a damn embarrassment. Power of Peaches, y'all, Lazarev be quaking.

Verdict: QF

Tamara Todevska - "Proud"
This is easily the most competent song Macedonia, FYR or North, have sent to Eurovision, but I am sceptical how well it can do. Like, I personally think "Proud" is *really* boring and static, and I'm not the only person who feels that way, right? North Macedonia can only complete their transformation if they can make the live staging work (and make it work better than Austria, their main competition in the SF) and since we know Macedonia are rubbish stagers, I'm tempted to give this one lowish odds. Still, given that Tamara can sing means "Proud" isn't dead upon arrival and that's more than half the battle for Macedonia.

Verdict: BL-

KEiiNO - "Spirit in the sky"
Lol I understand why people think this is the Verona, but there are several distinguishing features: a) of all, the staging of Spirit is better and b) of all there's no Koitface. They also have allies in Sweden, Netherlands and Denmark to swap points with, and I can imagine they will appeal in Malta, Switzerland, Latvia, Ireland and Russia, amongst others. KEiiNO's staging in MGP was already good and if improved (like they said they would), this can easily score high enough in a televote to qualify Rasmussen style (I do think Bilal is the Rasmussen of the year, but if not him it's definitely KEiiNO lol). But as with Luca, I'll be cautious for now.
Verdict: BL+

Sergey Lazarev - "Scream"
Lol come on, this doesn't even need analysis. Sergey qualifies on name and flag alone, even if he completely bombs the high note like I expect him to. Guaranteed 48 points from Armenia and Azerbaijan alone. Sergey will also receive a good chunk from Malta, Croatia and Germany because "Scream" is the sort of song they would love. Also, "Scream" is surprisingly anti-Russia in terms of style. It's not some political throw like Julia's entries, nor it is a desperate ploy to win ESC. It's a nice, midcarding powerballad that is also clearly not a contender to win. It's so refreshing to have a Russia which doesn't even appear to care about how well they do, as long as they do well. Even the juries might not hate it enough to deny it top five at this rate, I think.
Verdict: QF

In sum:

QF: , , ,
BL: , , , > > , , ,
NQ: , , ,

 

[aef]

My wild guess for SF 2 for now:

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But hey, it's so unpredictable! I also can see , and qualifying....

 

[henhu]

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