Of the 3 I have as Borderline, I'm going to guess that Armenia gets the last qualifying spot. I love Latvia but I'm worried it's headed for a Fuleen or Eaea result (yes I know Ulveham qualified last year, but only just). I can see a case for Serbia qualifying but i just think Armenia might pick up more support and I also note France is voting here.
Of the Outs: Montenegro may struggle for support outside the Balkans. Denmark isn't a strong enough performer or song. Georgia isn't memorable. Ireland already feels like the budget has been cut so I don't hold out hope for the staging it would need to be memorable and create a 'moment' especially from slot 3.