Who will qualify from Semifinal 2 2024?

[Realest]

Lets predict the 10 Qualifiers from Semifinal 2.

 

[empo21]

I love how there's a clear gap between 9 sure qualifiers and the rest.

 

[BorisBubbles]

C+P'ing my reasonings from the other thread:

Locks:
- Closers have to be absolutely hopeless to NQ, and this being put last telegraphs to me that NL might have a good act planned in Sweden
- Yeah absolutely zero way this NQs and I refuse to consider otherwise
- Yes ofc this is in you idiots.

Likely qualifiers:
- Sixth and before the very statically staged Denmark is definitely a lot better than most other slots in the first half for an uptempo banger. They were already likely in but a shock NQ appears to have been dodged
- This was always a High Risk, High Reward entry in my eyes, and the r/o did nothing to persuade me to think otherwise
- same principle as Poland in SF1. Ladaniva could be at risk under some semis but Armenia simply have too many allies in this one to be NQ
- is without question doing the worst out of the last five songs in the semi, (having a bad song with a terminally unlikeable lead has to account for something even though it is Israel in 2024) but whatever the result, it'll never bad enough to get worse than tenth.

Borderline qualifiers
- I still don't see the vision with this strange, abrasive song. However, high betting odds have to account for something, and the songs further down the pecking order are less likely to receive high-mid points than a well-executed Greece.
-- Same as Greece, really, except they don't have a diasporia.
- The 10th slot in the final certainly feels like it's between Malta and Denmark, and Denmark's draw is a bit more favourable. Sand also just... sounds Eurovisiony, but whether it's in a good way or in a very dated, tinned way who can tell.
- I currently have her 11th, but I can definitely imagine a scenario where Sarah outsells Loop like she did at MESC, and leapfrogs over Saba into the finale. Opening the semi is not ideal however, so hopefully she has something memorable prepared to overcome the short term memory loss the audience suffers from.

Unlikely qualifiers.
- The weakest of the girlbops in this semi. It's already precarious to have three of them (Austria, Greece and Malta) make the final from the same semi. Georgia won't be a fourth.

Dead on arrival
- This is getting double digits in the semi thanks to Spain, but double digits won't be enough to reach a final.
- The vocals and song are giving Hozier, his face and draw are giving ET go home.
- the r/o is okay, but what really did Czechia in for me was adding a high note in the revamp when Aiko has already become synonymous with terminal vital capacity in my mind and that of many others. And she's on before Slimane too, to add further insult to injury.
- falls fully within the Fairytale / World / Fall from the Shite wastescape of hopeless Albanian revamps that only Looren (and thankfully NOBODY ELSE) likes

In sum: , , , , , , , , &

 

[Realest]

Current Standings:

01
01
01
01
05
05
05
08
09
10
11
12
12
14
14
16

 

[94ayd]

 

[heke1988]

This is more difficult than first semifinal, but hear is my list:

 

[ati0111]

VERY LIKELY
1.Netherlands
2.Belgium
3.Israel
4.Switzerland

LIKELY
5.Armenia
6.Norway

MAYBE
7.Estonia
8.Austria
9.Greece
10.Albania

11.Latvia
12.San Marino
13.Denmark
14.Georgia

UNLIKELY
15.Czechia
16.Malta

 

[Realest]

Update:

01
02
02
02
05
05
05
08
09
10

_______________

11
12
12
12
12
16

 

[Navn Navnes]

My prediction of placement order(This is not my personal preference, i will post in the other thread for that, though i of course coul overestimate the musictaste of the televoters)

Q
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nq
11(Lets hope i am right)
12
13
14
15
16

Latvia could be close. Israel is dificult as i do think it would be a surprise flop from a musical perspective, not sure if will go up or down based on the war(dont know how political i can get here, so i will stay vague).

 

[Realest]

Final Standings before the Rehearsals:

01 33
02 32
02 32
02 32
05 31
05 31
05 31
08 26
09 25
10 11

_______________

11 09
12 08
13 08
14 08
15 06
16 05

 

[Realest]

After the 30sec Clips:

01 35
02 34
02 34
02 34
05 33
05 33
05 33
08 28
09 27
10 14
____________________

11 09
12 08
13 08
14 08
15 06
16 04

 

[SirPeterGriffin]

After rehearsals predictions:

Locks:

01. - Landslide winner.
02. - Almost closing the show with an otherwordly experience.
03. - I'll stick with my guns. A party anthem that doesn't go unnoticed.

Most likely:

04. - Not the best clip but Marina is a gifted performer that manages to make the experimental nature of the song super catchy.
05. - Not the strongest staging nor outfit imo. However, the song is packed with memorability and the pre-hype is enough to give it a lot of votes.
06. - Lovely and charming folk trip in a very privileged position.
07. - Cliche four chord ballad that is shamelessly fishing for sympathy. It'll work enough.
08. - An adrenaline rush ticking a lot of Eurovision boxes.


Borderline:

09. - Nutsa is one hell of a showwoman that is elevating the hell out of the material that is given.
10. - A perfectly good song ruined with the empty staging. Zero mood and his voice is quite rough around the edges. In a very dangerous situation now.

11. - Impressive use of the cubes in what looks like a raging, momentum building performance. Hats off to her for hiding her shortcomings.
12. - Maybe a pipeline dream, maybe not. Italy and Spain already guarantee high points. I can't give enough justification for it to Q except for the clip which looks spetacular.


DOA:

13. - The self-sabotaging revamp ruined any chance even with the diaspora. Looks like a mess anyway.
14. - Repetitive radio song. Shouting the refrain won't make people bother to vote for it.
15. - Good vocals, not enough oomph to it.
16. - A semi already crowded with other girl bops that come later.

 

[ESC94]

Lets try it here as well.