I was inclined to put
as a FFF but since it’s televote only its Q chances are pretty good since it’s in the Semi with
,
and
. I guess these four countries (their audiences, respectively) will vote for each other the most and will all gather votes from these countries.
,
and
will vote for each other in first place(s), securing their spots in the final (which they probably did without voting for each other). Juries of a country tend to put favourites of the "opponents" lower than the televote does (which is more honest in this case unless… bought) so good for all of them we don’t have them in the semis.
So these seven countries are pretty much safe. The remaining songs fight for votes from a) Western Europe or b) Eastern Europe. Musical preferences are pretty different in both parts of Europe.
I can see Western televoters going for
, Eastern probably
.
and
will get the same amounts from both parts.
is the biggest loser that there are no juries; otherwise they‘d be in.
doesn’t have UK or Australia in the semi who‘d vote for them.
is a hopeless case unless people are touched by the "don’t wanna be a soldier" narrative and
… oh well.