between 5th and 12th song in both semi's.
Semi Final running order
- Thread starter Matt
- Start date
- Watchers 6
between 5th and 12th song in both semi's.
ParadiseES
Well-known member
I've just found some statistics I made some day I was bored. It's the average placing for every spot in the running order taking into account all the semifinals since 2008.
- It's based only in televoting results since running order shouldn't affect juries.
- Since we had different number of countries every year, while from #01 to #08 are the same every year, from #09 to #16 I took the last spots every year (for example, in semifinal with 19 countries, #12 to #19 would be the current #09 to #16).
These are the results:
#01 - 10,91666 (13th) (Armenia, Malta)
#02 - 9,666 (10th) (Latvia, Israel)
#03 - 14 (16th) (Estonia, Norway)
#04 - 9,333 (8th) (Sweden, Georgia)
#05 - 10,5 (11th) (Iceland, Poland)
#06 - 8,333 (4th) (Albania, Austria)
#07 - 8,41666 (5th) (Russia, Lithuania)
#08 - 11,333 (14th) (Azerbaijan, Finland?)
#09 - 9,333 (9th) (Ukraine, Finland?)
#10 - 9 (7th) (Belgium, Ireland)
#11 - 7,1666 (3rd) (Moldova, Belarus)
#12 - 8,666 (6th) (San Marino, FYR Macedonia)
#13 - 10,91666 (12th) (Portugal, Switzerland)
#14 - 11,666 (15th) (Netherlands, Greece)
#15 - 5,5 (2nd) (Montenegro, Slovenia)
#16 - 4,5 (1st) (Hungary, Romania)
So although the two last spots are the most lucky ones by far, it seems the third and second last have poor statistics in the semifinals, even worse than some of the early draws, like the popular unlucky #02, which isn't that unlucky after all.
So people who say Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland or Greece have been lucky they're wrong
- It's based only in televoting results since running order shouldn't affect juries.
- Since we had different number of countries every year, while from #01 to #08 are the same every year, from #09 to #16 I took the last spots every year (for example, in semifinal with 19 countries, #12 to #19 would be the current #09 to #16).
These are the results:
#01 - 10,91666 (13th) (Armenia, Malta)
#02 - 9,666 (10th) (Latvia, Israel)
#03 - 14 (16th) (Estonia, Norway)
#04 - 9,333 (8th) (Sweden, Georgia)
#05 - 10,5 (11th) (Iceland, Poland)
#06 - 8,333 (4th) (Albania, Austria)
#07 - 8,41666 (5th) (Russia, Lithuania)
#08 - 11,333 (14th) (Azerbaijan, Finland?)
#09 - 9,333 (9th) (Ukraine, Finland?)
#10 - 9 (7th) (Belgium, Ireland)
#11 - 7,1666 (3rd) (Moldova, Belarus)
#12 - 8,666 (6th) (San Marino, FYR Macedonia)
#13 - 10,91666 (12th) (Portugal, Switzerland)
#14 - 11,666 (15th) (Netherlands, Greece)
#15 - 5,5 (2nd) (Montenegro, Slovenia)
#16 - 4,5 (1st) (Hungary, Romania)
So although the two last spots are the most lucky ones by far, it seems the third and second last have poor statistics in the semifinals, even worse than some of the early draws, like the popular unlucky #02, which isn't that unlucky after all.
So people who say Netherlands, Portugal, Switzerland or Greece have been lucky they're wrong
QwaarJet
ESC Moderator
I put the running order up in my prediction thread, I'm assuming that's why there was no new thread.
Andrzej1987
Member
Whose bright idea was it to put the Netherlands and Montenegro next to each other? Wasn't this system created to avoid such situations in which similar songs are following one another? Hungary should have been put between them.
Might be, though these are just pure, cold facts and stats. The real outcome will surely differ from what they seem to predict, as the order doesn't influence the average voter very much - many of them already have a general idea about what they'll vote for (*cough* block voting *cough*), and it really isn't too important whether Georgia is at 04 or 05 - it doesn't stand a chance either way
Or look at Silent Storm for instance: It will perform at the third spot - the least successful one according to your stats - and I doubt anyone will believe in it failing to qualify.tl;dr: I'm not really a fan of interpreting the running order and believing it's the key to success.
So I have to agree with you - #2 isn't unlucky at all
Iuris
Active member
Bye Latvia! :twisted: Sincerely, I hope they reach the final, but I see complicated... Happy for Montenegro, FYR Macedonia, Poland... But I'm afraid The Netherlands won't make into the final... Armenia hasn't been aggrieved, IMO. Aram's performance will be memorable. Nobody will forget it. 
Azerbaijan between Russia and Ukraine?
Azerbaijan between Russia and Ukraine?
ParadiseES
Well-known member
[MENTION=8036]Salmon[/MENTION]
Well, that's partially true. There are certain countries that will/won't qualify from every spot and the running order will not really affect them. But that's not the case of everyone.
These stats don't say "this, this, this and this will qualify" cause actually we've got qualifiers from every single spot since 2008. It's just the way the chances are increasing or not because of the running order. When some country is way ahead or way behind this doesn't matter, but things are closer it kinda does.
Well, that's partially true. There are certain countries that will/won't qualify from every spot and the running order will not really affect them. But that's not the case of everyone.
These stats don't say "this, this, this and this will qualify" cause actually we've got qualifiers from every single spot since 2008. It's just the way the chances are increasing or not because of the running order. When some country is way ahead or way behind this doesn't matter, but things are closer it kinda does.
dezbee2008
Well-known member
I must say that some countries can benefit from the running order. IMO, Armenia has a bad draw, but I don't see them having a problem qualifying. Believe it or not, Poland has a good draw, but I'm cautious about it since the number really doesn't have a good history.
Hungary and Romania are sure qualifiers, and Montenegro has a shot at qualifying too. In short, running orders don't matter, it's just how well each country perform that makes the difference.
Hungary and Romania are sure qualifiers, and Montenegro has a shot at qualifying too. In short, running orders don't matter, it's just how well each country perform that makes the difference.
I almost agree with your statement but it's more like "the running order doesn't matter that much". It does have an impact but in the Semis it is less significant as they are only 15 to 17 songs competing vs 26 in the Final.
How can Malta be a good show opener??? It's not what you'd call an uptempo, or would've stood out better!
And yeah, last again... I don't know, that's just really lucky I guess! I know 15 songs ain't much but think of the people listening to songs for the first time!
or would've stood out better!And yeah,
last again... I don't know, that's just really lucky I guess! I know 15 songs ain't much but think of the people listening to songs for the first time!
I agree with Matt.
I mean : how come Estonia and Latvia will perform so early again, while Romania will be the last one on stage ?
Even Moldova and Russia have almost the same placing as last year, talk about fairness !
They'd better make one and only running order forever... Please bring back the random draw.
I mean : how come Estonia and Latvia will perform so early again, while Romania will be the last one on stage ?
Even Moldova and Russia have almost the same placing as last year, talk about fairness !
They'd better make one and only running order forever... Please bring back the random draw.
The vast majority prefers the random draw. There were a few individuals last year who were supportive of the pre-determined running order but once their country got a shitty draw they changed their minds, too
Those who don't believe (not sure why they would) that the running order has no impact on the results usually support the idea of the current system.