Semi-Final Allocation

[joancamo]

Ok for semi 1: Greece, Bosnia, Azerbaijan, Russia are locks for the final, as they always qualify, Armenia and Hungary should also be in based in previous voting, that leaves 4 more places up for grabs I think Malta would be one, and maybe Estonia and the last two I think it could be from someone between The Netherlands, Czech Republic, Austria
I think San Marino, Montenegro, Cyprus, Iceland and Finland will be out in the semi 1 no matter what they send

As for semi 2 it seems more open: Romania and Ukraine are the only 100% qualifiers, and the rest if up for grabs XD I don't have any idea of what will happen and that is exciting!!

 

[tuorem]

As for semi 2 it seems more open: Romania and Ukraine are the only 100% qualifiers, and the rest if up for grabs XD I don't have any idea of what will happen and that is exciting!!

Something tells me that Australia is a sure qualifier. Juries won't let them out, and the UK and Ireland vote in the semi. As for the rest, you're right, we'll have to wait for the songs (and the actual final draw).

In semi 1, I can't see Armenia out, they've always qualified (I don't count 2011) and France will support them once again. And Azerbaijan, I don't know, after two years of jury help, if they don't redouble their efforts, it may well lead to their first non-qualification.

 

[Mickey]

Guess this is the proper place to put my stats on the draw.

https://thankyoueurope.wordpress.com/2016/01/25/stats-corner-2016-semi-final-draw/

It's a fantastic draw for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Lithuania and Macedonia. A bad one for Moldova, Netherlands, Albania and Serbia. Armenia didn't do very well either.

 

[ZoboCamel]

Something tells me that Australia is a sure qualifier. Juries won't let them out, and the UK and Ireland vote in the semi.

While you may be right regarding the juries, I think it's a little early to try and determine our voting trends and allies in the contest. We've only had one entry so far, and it was a relatively strong one sent under unusual circumstances; it's hard to predict whether we'll win the contest or come last in the semi at the moment, especially given the silence around our entry so far this year.

 

[Dante]

I think Australia is a sure qualifier as well, but mostly because Europe perceives it as a neutral ground. Plus, I don't think we'll have any surprises, by having them send some epic failers.

 

[WhoKnows]

So now that some of the entries are known, let's muse about who will qualify.

Semi 1
Broadly speaking, usually we have 5 and 5 (or 4/6) qualifying from each half. First half, Russia is obviously in. Armenia and Greece, from what we know, should go through too. Hungary is in a good position to qualify. Finland is an obvious out for me. I'm afraid Moldova is pprobably out too, but will depend on what others pick. The remaining three... based on the artist, I'd say Netherlands has the best shot but we'll see.

Second half. No reason to bet against Azerbaijan, even if we know nothing about them yet. Iceland and Cyprus should be good too. Estonia has had good success and if I'm not mistaken, their NF has gotten positive feedback. The other two known entries, BiH and Austria are probably out. The first is a mess, balkan votes won't be enough. The second is too low key. Based on the artist, I don't have much faith in Montenegro. Czechia has given no indication that they know what they're doing
Malta on the other hand is trying really hard, so I'll go with them for the last spot.

Semi 2
First half is still wide open. I feel good that Australia will put up a valiant effort and go though. The only "lock" here so far. The three known entries - Belarus, Ireland and Switzerland - are probably out. The first two still have a chance though if others underdeliver. I'm not convinced by Poland's frontrunner status, but let's say they manage to live up to it. Macedonia is in a good position given Kaliopi's last try. The last two could be any of the four left. Latvia has a fanwank with Justs. Serbia somehow managed a top ten last year with that mess. No clue what's happening with Israel and Lithuania. Given the state of the second half, we might get six qualifiers here.

Second half is such a weak mess. Ukraine is a lock. Belgium, Georgia and Slovenia are out. Though Georgia has a lot of friends here so could sneak in with a good draw. Even though song is a mess, I can't see Norway staying in the Semi. Can't find a reason to bet against Romania at this point either. That's three. I'm thinking only one more from the remaining three. Bulgaria's Poli seems to have her fans. Denmark has the Disney package. Albania has a tendency to surprise. I'll go with Bulgaria for now because of all the Eastern Europe countries here.

 

[joancamo]

Can the semifinal allocation draw be redone? I like everyone on Semi 1 and Semi 2 just ended with really weak and boring songs

 

[hungo]

semi 1 seems to be the much better one. there will be at least one ore two fairly good songs not qualifying. for austria it will be difficult because germany and switzerland not voting and no diaspora. if austria will make it into the final that would be an indication that it will be strong in the final.

 

[FoxOfShadows]

Oh god, Semi 1 is going to be a bloodbath. Countries with (almost) 100% qualification ( ) and lots of fan favourites ( ) Stuff like and are going to get left in the dust and unless pull something out of the bag, I sadly can't see them qualifying. Doesn't help that almost all of my favourites are here :?

 

[joancamo]

Oh god, Semi 1 is going to be a bloodbath. Countries with (almost) 100% qualification ( ) and lots of fan favourites ( ) Stuff like and are going to get left in the dust and unless pull something out of the bag, I sadly can't see them qualifying. Doesn't help that almost all of my favourites are here :?

The same think I was thinking!! The only thing I'm sure is that San Marino and Montenegro will be the bottom 2 from semi 1, but from then, there are still 6 songs, 6!!! that will be eliminated from the semi, I feel like Czech Republic will also be out if they don't bring something strong like Croatia, I feel Moldova, Finland and Netherlands will be left behind to much stronger songs. I see Malta, Azerbaijan, Austria as borderline qualifiers

And qualifying:
Russia, Bosnia, Armenia, Greece, Hungary, Estonia, Cyprus, Iceland, Croatia + one from Austria,Azerbaijan,Malta

Semi 2 in the other hand I only see as locks for qualifying: Australia, Ukraine, Norway and maybe Denmark, I don't see anyone else 100% sure qualifying not even Romania whose song is not good for me, so it is everyone's game

I wish some songs from semi 1 were in semi 2, because some good songs will be left out in the semis and weak songs from semi 2 will easily get a pass, and I don't that will be fair

 

[aletem]

Oh god, Semi 1 is going to be a bloodbath. Countries with (almost) 100% qualification ( ) and lots of fan favourites ( ) Stuff like and are going to get left in the dust and unless pull something out of the bag, I sadly can't see them qualifying. Doesn't help that almost all of my favourites are here :?

Finland kinda stands out, for what it is, from the rest. Moldova is likely ending last in the semi. Malta, Netherlands, Iceland, Estonia would do fine with the juries and possibly go through. It's gonna be interesting.

 

[joancamo]

Finland kinda stands out, for what it is, from the rest. Moldova is likely ending last in the semi. Malta, Netherlands, Iceland, Estonia would do fine with the juries and possibly go through. It's gonna be interesting.

Excuse me? Moldova last in semi 1? That place goes to San Marino!

 

[ag89]

We will see some surprises for sure.

Maybe it's time for some of the countries from the group 100% qualification to fail? Maybe.

Although I think all these countries have ok songs.

Bosnia is fine, it has a potential for nice performance. Plus, it's one of the few in national languages, it might help the song to be remembered.

Russia: no issues, they will go through.

Many people hate Greek entry, for me that's one of the best songs this year.

 

[Mii11]

It certainly is going to be interesting year. I think the qualifiers from semi 1 will be: and /.
I also think that (sadly) and / will qualify from semi 2.

 

[aef]

I think from the 100% countries some countries like , and will struggle to qualify this year!

 

[Terence]

I think from the 100% countries some countries like , and will struggle to qualify this year!

We always say so and yet they do manage to qualify; having said that, they do tend to send competent performers when they have weak songs (Greece last year, Romania too)

 

[tuorem]

What about the entries that will open and close the semis (as far as the draw is concerned)? Does someone want to guess?

Semi final 1
First: I would say but they could as well put , as they did in 2014 with Armenia.
Last: Unless they go for a surprise like Poland 2015, would be an obvious act to close the semi (considering the entertainment-oriented "requirements").

Semi final 2
First: Difficult to say, maybe? I assume a country can't be given the same draw twice (or at least two years in a row), otherwise would have been a potential opener.
Last: I guess it will be between and (even though I'd prefer the latter)

 

[WhoKnows]

So with almost all the songs released, I'm thinking:
Semi 1
First half:
Second half: (if the last two don't deliver on the songs, next in line and )

Semi 2
First half:
Second half: ( is obviously the wild card, could overtake any of the last four)

 

[ZoboCamel]

Going to make some personal guesses at the qualifiers based on four categories - Confirmed, Likely, Unlikely and Out. I'd be really surprised to see any of the Confirmed songs missing out on the final, though that usually happens once or twice a year. Past that, the Likely ones are probably in but are close to missing out, while the Unlikely ones are ones I think will just miss out but still have a good shot at taking a spot from a Likely entry. The Out ones are those I'm assuming will get the ticket home, though I think most of them still have a small chance. The top two categories for each semi will have 10 entries combined. I'll probably update this once we know all the final versions of the songs.

SF1
Confirmed:
Likely:
Unlikely:
Out:

SF2
Confirmed:
Likely:
Unlikely:
Out: