OGAE poll ! Why do they often falter?

[Bibha]

OGAE polls try to predict winners one month prior to the contest. However they only rarely have the winner as their winner.(4 times only)
Is it the point system that they use at fault?
Or is it solely because they don't factor in the staging!

 

[Bibha]

You can see the French points below:

Israel – 12
Finland – 10
Australia – 8
Denmark – 7
Czech Republic – 6
Sweden – 5
Greece – 4
Bulgaria – 3
Italy – 2
Austria – 1

 

[Bibha]

OGAE BELARUS
12 – Israel
10 – France
8 – Belgium
7 – Sweden
6 – Czech Republic
5 – Bulgaria
4 – Italy
3 – Estonia
2 – Norway
1 – Cyprus

 

[CPV4931]

In my opinion it depends on different factors (judging as an OGAE member) :

- As you mentioned, the staging is not/barely know at the time OGAE votes and a good staging can - as we all know - change a lot
- Eurovision Fans and therefore also OGAE Members usually use to have listened a lot to the songs before voting in the poll while the "average viewer" usually listens to most of the songs the first or second time at Eurovision night.
- The "average OGAE-member" can barely be compared to the "average TV viewer", who votes at Eurovision, regarding age, gender, sexual orientation, e.g..

 

[Alaska49]

all of the above also OGAE members have the most cookie cutter taste (as seen by sweden doing well last year)

 

[Bibha]

all of the above also OGAE members have the most cookie cutter taste (as seen by sweden doing well last year)

But Sweden ended up doing well even in ESC no?

 

[cegs5]

I didn't know they try to predict the winner, I thought they just voted for what they like.

 

[Citelis]

Yes, that's the main reason the ogae winner will not be the same with the real winner! Ogae are fans and fans have different taste that the rest of the viewers!

 

[Alaska49]

But Sweden ended up doing well even in ESC no?

well, i used the wrong year as an example even though ogae did have sweden 3rd which they could never get. but also sweden winning ogae 2008 even though, well, lol.

 

[ZoboCamel]

This analysis from last year is, I think, a great look into whether OGAE is reliable as a predictor of Eurovision results: https://www.escxtra.com/2017/04/21/...eath-fan-favourite-bias-worthwhile-indicator/

Essentially, it shows that the poll isn't a perfect metric, but is certainly better than random guesses would be, and appears to be mirroring the final results more closely as the years go on.

As for why it's not perfect... well, there are a bunch of reasons, and I think the biggest ones have been mentioned here already. Combining those with some of my own ideas, I've done up a list below in roughly descending order of what I think has the biggest impact:

1. There really aren't any metrics at this point – OGAE polls, other polls, betting odds, whatever – that can properly account for staging, camera angles, live vocals on the night and all that sort of thing. And we've seen before that those can have a huge impact, with a good performance elevating a mediocre song into a top 5 spot or a bad performance leading a great song to NQ.

2. There's a lot that can happen, even outside of staging, in the month or so after OGAE votes close. Hype, media narratives and momentum from the mainstream media tend to get up to top speed in the couple of weeks before the contest, and these can be huge, at least in determining the winner – Conchita, Jamala and Salvador all seem to have benefited hugely from this.

3. OGAE members (and Eurovision fans in general) have different tastes to the general public, and more time to listen to the songs. While the fandom absolutely has a range of tastes, the average preferences are still quite different to the wider public at times, and the tastes of Eurovision fans can also be influenced by their extra knowledge of what's going on (returning singers, backstories, the meanings of lyrics, national final results etc.)

4. The scoring systems are different. In OGAE votes and most other fan polls, you've got 58 points to spread across your favourites, meaning you have a lot more room to reward stuff outside your top few favourites. This means that fan polls can favour the more widely-liked, agreeable entries – something coming 6th on every viewer's list would probably do great in an OGAE poll, but if viewers on the night only vote for their top 5, it won't be impactful enough to actually get those votes that matter.

5. Along the lines of the above point, OGAE polls don't have any juries, and the juries account for 50% of the final result in May. With jury criteria (generally seeming to focus on chartworthiness, vocal ability etc.) sometimes being quite different to televoter standards, that can put a gap between any televote-like preview poll and the actual scores on the night.
​

With all those factors – and probably more that I can't think of right now – I'd say that metrics like fan polls and odds actually do a surprisingly good job of predicting the final results!

 

[Bibha]

The points from Spain are here:
12- Israel^
10- France^
8 - Finland
7 - Cyprus
6 - Australia
5 - Sweden^
4 - Czech Republic^
3 - Belgium
2 - Germany*
1 - Italy^

^- received points from all eligible clubs so far
*- first points

 

[Bibha]

Czech votes:
Israel – 12 points^
Cyprus – 10 points
France – 8 points^
Estonia – 7 points
Spain – 6 points*
Denmark – 5 points
Australia – 4 points
Finland – 3 points
Belgium – 2 points
Greece – 1 point

 

[Miguel]

Some people claim they are not predictions, just opinion polls. So, taking that into acount, they just reflect what the fans from the OGAE and INFE prefer. The Eurovision fan from the OGAE or INFE does not think like a random member of the general public who watches the show without preconceptions and hears the songs for the first time.

In the end, it is all a matter of expectations. A fan from an organisation like OGAE expects to be entertained, is strict and is not too fond of the non-standard. Someone in the general public expects to be surprised, is more open to the possibilities and that is why opera, pop, and jazz songs in this order have won the televoting since 2015.

 

[Bibha]

12 points – Israel^
10 points – Italy
8 points – Bulgaria
7 points – Greece
6 points – Norway
5 points – Denmark
4 points – Australia
3 points – Belgium
2 points – Sweden
1 point – Germany

Points from Albania

 

[Bibha]

OGAE HUNGARY has voted:

1 point goes to Austria
2 points go to France
3 points go to Ukraine*
4 points go to Czech Republic
5 points go to Belarus*
6 points go to Italy
7 points go to Greece
8 points go to Finland
10 points go to …. Estonia
And 12 points go to …..Israel

OGAE IRELAND has voted:

1 point goes to Estonia
2 points go to Germany
3 points go to Cyprus
4 points go to Czech Republic
5 points go to Bulgaria
6 points go to Austria
7 points go to Finland
8 points go to… Australia
10 points go to… France
And 12 points go to… Israel

 

[Bibha]

What country do you think will be the first to not give Israel 12 points here

 

[tuorem]

What country do you think will be the first to not give Israel 12 points here

Probably Israel

 

[carl1]

http://www.ogae.de/teds_mb/2018/esc2018_preted.php?action=aktuell
Germany perhaps

 

[Carrie]

White privilege

 

[Bibha]

Shocking results from Italy! Lol

12 points to France ����
10 points to Israel
8 points to Greece
7 points to Australia
6 points to Austria
5 points for Denmark
4 points go to Finland
3 points for Belgium
2 points to Estonia
1 point for Bulgaria