How to win Esc-2014

[henhu]

Well, Denmark was drawn to the second half of the show and the producers just gave her 18th slot (there was only 3 worse slots available - 14th, 15th, 17th). Yeah, these split results are tricky, but if we convert it to points, I don't think that Azerbaijan/Sweden/Norway/Moldova would have won the jury voting (Azerbaijan - mainly east support, Sweden - their avarage rank 8.05 was mainly because they were ranked #1 in many western countires, Norway - was very low in some juries ranking, Moldova - mainly east support). Denmark's song was obvious televoting winner (charts success). They probably didn't use point split results, because ''0 points'' + ''0 points'' might give ''1 or more points'' with new system (11th place in jury voting + 11th place in televoting).
Denmark's win for 2013 wasn't fixed, they couldn't have won with weak song I don't say that I like ''Only Teardrops'', but I can't see how EBU supported Denmark. They could've got better draw (19th, 20th, 21th, 22th, 23th, 24th, 25th, 26th) and I don't think Hungary or Iceland got harmed because of Denmark.

Rig televoting is already done in local elections, it's not really difficult, it's just presenting fabricated numbers

Also, bribe juries seem to be done every year, so I guess that's even easier to manipulate

You still can't manipulate with many countries, for example, when 2 countries tried to buy votes from Estonian jury in 2011, then we directly got the news about it and jury gave them 0 points (one of them was probably Azerbaijan).

 

[GRE]

Basically,they gave Denmark place 18th,after the Hungarian who could not sing.He was the weakest vocalist of the Final.

 

[doctormalisimo]

Basically,they gave Denmark place 18th,after the Hungarian who could not sing.He was the weakest vocalist of the Final.

Did you even hear Ireland?!?

 

[GRE]

My personal opinion is that Denmark lost 1st place both in televoting and juries.
That's why they didn't reveal split results.
In juries i suspect that Denmark was not even in top3.
Here are the results we know from 10 national juries:
1.Netherlands & Sweden 54 points
3.Norway 51 points
4.Belgium 49 points
5.Russia 41 points
6.Moldova 40 points
7.Denmark 37 points

 

[ParadiseES]

Did you even hear Ireland?!?

Hungary was worse.... Not worse than Belgium or Spain though

 

[ParadiseES]

My personal opinion is that Denmark lost 1st place both in televoting and juries.
That's why they didn't reveal split results.
In juries i suspect that Denmark was not even in top3.
Here are the results we know from 10 national juries:
1.Netherlands & Sweden 54 points
3.Norway 51 points
4.Belgium 49 points
5.Russia 41 points
6.Moldova 40 points
7.Denmark 37 points

Well, they released the average place in jury and televoting. That's how it works now with the new system, the only 1 to 12 points is the final voting.

They should've separated by countries though.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Hey! It's not our fault we are too good

 

[Yamarus]

I don't say that I like ''Only Teardrops'', but I can't see how EBU supported Denmark. They could've got better draw (19th, 20th, 21th, 22th, 23th, 24th, 25th, 26th) and I don't think Hungary or Iceland got harmed because of Denmark

Statistically numbers 17-18 are the best place in the draw for a winning song. They put "Only Teardrops" precisely there. IIRC the very last positions in the draw (24-26) are actually statistically weaker than some earlier spots.

 

[Romeo]

I think its time for an Island, just putting it out there

 

[Sabiondo]

I think its time for an Island, just putting it out there

I don't thing that EBU will let Iceland to win so soon after 2 scandinavian victories, so its time for a ex-soviet country, or Italy-Spain or France to win...

 

[esc87fan]

There's another pattern that goes back 50 years

1963: wins for the first time. 2013, wins

1964: contest is held in Copenhagen, wins for the first time. 2014, contest is held in Copenhagen. Could win?

OUTCOME: If an Italian win does come to pass this year, both countries involved in this situation would have 3 wins, and both will have exactly 50 years between their first and third wins
1963 -> 2000 (37 years), 2000 -> 2013 (13 years) = 50
1964 -> 1990 (26 years), 1990 ->2014 (24 years) = 50

 

[greece]

There's another pattern that goes back 50 years

1963: wins for the first time. 2013, wins

1964: contest is held in Copenhagen, wins for the first time. 2014, contest is held in Copenhagen. Could win?

OUTCOME: If an Italian win does come to pass this year, both countries involved in this situation would have 3 wins, and both will have exactly 50 years between their first and third wins
1963 -> 2000 (37 years), 2000 -> 2013 (13 years) = 50
1964 -> 1990 (26 years), 1990 ->2014 (24 years) = 50

That is a good theory xgood

 

[joancamo]

There's another pattern that goes back 50 years

1963: wins for the first time. 2013, wins

1964: contest is held in Copenhagen, wins for the first time. 2014, contest is held in Copenhagen. Could win?

OUTCOME: If an Italian win does come to pass this year, both countries involved in this situation would have 3 wins, and both will have exactly 50 years between their first and third wins
1963 -> 2000 (37 years), 2000 -> 2013 (13 years) = 50
1964 -> 1990 (26 years), 1990 ->2014 (24 years) = 50

Very good theory, another one is the one in which after Sweden won and hosted the last 2 times (2000 and 2013) Denmark won and in Denmark Estonia won, could Estonia repeat history this year?

 

[penguinperson]

Two conflicting trends going into 2014

Countries which have rejected EU referendums the year before have gone onto win ESC. Norway 1995 for example. San Marino rejected one last year

This from escnation

Since 2001, every even-numbered year the winner was a country that qualified for the men's ice hockey tournament in the preceding Winter Olympics (Latvia, Ukraine, Finland, Russia, Germany, Sweden).

Every odd-numbered year the winner was a country that *didn't* qualify (Estonia, Turkey, Greece, Serbia, Norway, Azerbaijan, Denmark).

This means that the winning contenders for ESC 2014 are Austria, Finland, Latvia, Norway, Russia, Slovenia, Sweden and Switzerland. None of them can win ESC 2015 (nor can the Czech Republic or Slovakia).

 

[GRE]

This means that the winning contenders for ESC 2014 are Austria, Slovenia, and Switzerland.

 

[ParadiseES]

Oh please, stop conspiracies. It's pretty obvious either or will win and the other one will be the runner-up

 

[Celia]

Oh please, stop conspiracies. It's pretty obvious either or will win and the other one will be the runner-up

Watch out if Ruth wins the NF

 

[Leydan]

Watch out if Ruth wins the NF

You will have an unfair advantage in getting points from the UK though. Fortunately the British immigrant populations in Spain will help to counteract that, Just a tiny bit.

 

[lilka]

I don't thing that EBU will let Iceland to win so soon after 2 scandinavian victories, so its time for a ex-soviet country, or Italy-Spain or France to win...

Or maybe Poland at last? We were so close in 1994... 1

 

[greece]

Or maybe Poland at last? We were so close in 1994... 1