Do you think Ukraine is going to win Eurovision because of the war?

[EfendiFanSpain]

In a lot of bet houses the number one is ukraine, do yo think that they are going to recube a lot of points of the country juries because they want to look more great? Do you think this is fear?

 

[I bims]

What I'm more curious is who will be second place, with the situation in Ukraine I don't think that they will be able to host in 2023 and although EBU may give the duty of hosting to one of the big5, I do hope that it is the second place that wins that responsibility.

I want Sweden to host again tbh, I think they always do an amazing job. And I want the mother of Benjamin Ingrosso, Pernilla Wahlgren, to host. Her interval skit in Mello 2021 was so funny!

 

[Jopi]

The song would never win in a normal situation me thinks (mostly bc of the juries), and if they win now, it is bc of the war.
I like the song and I wouldn't mind the win, but still.
Even tho, as of now, I'm not thinking it will win.

 

[FilipFromSweden]

If Ukraine wins, it will be on the entry's own merits and not because of sympathy votes alone.

I find that very naive. Stefania is a great song, but I don't believe many people would say that it triumphs Go_A's Shum. Go_A ''only'' got 5th place and 2nd in the televote as they were huge fan favorites at a level which Kalush are not today. It's a relevant comparison in this case as the two songs feel like cousins.

It's also very strange you are suddenly of the opinion that the song will only win on it's quality alone, as you claimed many times in the Ukraine thread before the war that Ukraine had a big negative fall in the odds when they switched from Alina to Kalush

 

[A-lister]

I find that very naive. Stefania is a great song, but I don't believe many people would say that it triumphs Go_A's Shum. Go_A ''only'' got 5th place and 2nd in the televote as they were huge fan favorites at a level which Kalush are not today. It's a relevant comparison in this case as the two songs feel like cousins.

Naive how? I don't get the 2021 comparison tbh, that year was firstly a generally much stronger year which on top of that also had a big public pre-favorite (Måneskin) (we don't have that this year), and it makes no sense to take a song from this year's lineup and compare it to last year's when well... it' not competing with last year's lineup now does it?

It's also very strange you are suddenly of the opinion that the song will only win on it's quality alone, as you claimed many times in the Ukraine thread before the war that Ukraine had a big negative fall in the odds when they switched from Alina to Kalush

Show me one time I claimed that, let alone "many" times? exactly... but maybe you know something I don't? What I did however say is that I don't believe the juries will support this and thus I could see it struggle somewhat, also unlike some others I don't believe it will win either (war or no war). However, if it does end up winning in the end, then yes I believe it will do so on its own merits because firstly it's a standout entry in this dire year, and I also find it quite unlikely for an entry to win solely out of "sympathy" as some of y'all claiming (completely ignoring that the song was actually generally popular even prior the war and the fact that it takes quite much support from all across the board to actually stand a chance at winning) and if the juries suddenly will get to their senses then I can just say... finally, about darn time they did their job correctly!

Now I admit, I was hard on Kalush early on because of their initial behavior towards Alina so there were some emotions back then, nor was it my favorite from Vidbir back then either, but I never said it was bad song with no chances (in fact I think the full top. 3 Vidbir would be among the best in this year's lineup).

Anyways, the purpose of this thread is clear, especially if you look at the other thread started by the same member (with the aim of victimizing Russia), and I am not going to play that game. I find it quite sad how fast people are to jump on board to discredit what is clearly a popular entry and use the war narrative as an excuse (whether or not the entry happens to be of personal taste).

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Show me one time I claimed that, let alone "many" times? exactly...

This is the LAST time you gaslight me

 

[I bims]

 

[A-lister]

This is the LAST time you gaslight me

What gaslighting? It's so obvious you don't get my reasoning

So let me try to explain, maybe you'll get it (maybe you won't). First things first, I never claimed the entry "had a big negative fall", I did however think it would drop in the odds (not the same thing) and I was clearly wrong about that, but you're trying to mix my opinion about its "quality" into that and this is where your "argument" fails.

And yes, I initially thought it would drop in the odds due to basically two factors ; the track-record of rap in Eurovision and how the juries treat entries like these. Odds, as you're fully aware of, don't just take into consideration if an entry has public support or not (which this one had), but the general probability of winning and here other factors come to play as well and I just mentioned the two main points that I thought would talk against this entry winning (and here I have been consistent in what I believe). Also, back then, many other entries were still unknown, and now we know that this is indeed a weak year and this is one of the standout entries, so frankly I am not sure what your copy-paste is trying to prove really other than missing the context?

Now, what you actually questioned though, and what I responded to, is why I say that if this wins, I believe it'll do so based on its own merits? And well, I think I pretty much said why already so no point in dragging that further (you can either read it or ignore it as you often do, up to you). Contrary to what you're trying to claim here however, I never said I disliked the entry or it was bad quality. My, now obvious failed, prediction of the odds had nothing to do with my personal feelings towards the song (as I already explained). Whether a song is high in the odds or popular in polls do not affect my personal opinion of said song, such things never did and never will but the point here is that the song is clearly popular (although I do think the odds exaggerates it a bit) and yes, if it will win, I believe we shouldn't discredit it and say it'll be solely based on sympathy votes because the quality is there (and I never said it wasn't so don't make things up).