Betting Odds 2024
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Sammy
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Yeah, it‘s reaaaaallly late, since we even have a song!
gigi_copp3
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For me, a country can win again only after three years since last win. So, we're back in the winning contention, I think. Hope we'll choose the best entry
lilka
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Poland being 20th not surprising at all...
I hope Greece gets more hype soon.
The odds keep changing, but Ukraine seems to be leading the pack for now. Yet, it's hard to tell if they'll come out on top, especially with the war affecting things.
Looking at the lineup, some countries like Croatia, Finland, Estonia, and the Netherlands might struggle with jury votes, even if they sneak into the lower top 5.
Then there are the slower songs from France and Belgium, which could make waves, though Belgium's past entries of a similar style didn't do too well.
On the brighter side, we've got upbeat tunes from Italy, Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Austria, all with potential to make it to the final. Italy's got hype, but they need to sort out their staging.
Keep an eye on the UK, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. And Sweden's fate will become clearer after heat 5. Iceland might surprise us, following Ukraine's example from 2024.
As for Spain and Germany, they might struggle again, and Norway might not live up to expectations.
Overall, Ukraine seems hard to beat, with Italy and France as possible contenders to do well. Lithuania might do well too. So, my top 5 picks, in no particular order, are Ukraine, Croatia, France, Lithuania, and a wildcard entry (Maybe Belgium?) Italy might land around 8th place, still respectable but maybe a bit overhyped.
Looking at the lineup, some countries like Croatia, Finland, Estonia, and the Netherlands might struggle with jury votes, even if they sneak into the lower top 5.
Then there are the slower songs from France and Belgium, which could make waves, though Belgium's past entries of a similar style didn't do too well.
On the brighter side, we've got upbeat tunes from Italy, Luxembourg, Cyprus, and Austria, all with potential to make it to the final. Italy's got hype, but they need to sort out their staging.
Keep an eye on the UK, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. And Sweden's fate will become clearer after heat 5. Iceland might surprise us, following Ukraine's example from 2024.
As for Spain and Germany, they might struggle again, and Norway might not live up to expectations.
Overall, Ukraine seems hard to beat, with Italy and France as possible contenders to do well. Lithuania might do well too. So, my top 5 picks, in no particular order, are Ukraine, Croatia, France, Lithuania, and a wildcard entry (Maybe Belgium?) Italy might land around 8th place, still respectable but maybe a bit overhyped.
Paco Roca
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Focusing on the odds to find the winner makes no sense. Whoever is first, let's take Gabbani at random with "Occidentali's Karma", might not be a contender for victory at all and finish seventh. The probabilities should not be read in detail. It's the big picture that counts.
Whoever is in the first five positions will be able to aim for victory but also be certain of a Top 10. Whoever is in sixth to twelfth place could acquire the role of outsider over time (perhaps the song is driven by a spectacular staging or by a political or personal message*** or both as in the case of Sobral), compete for the Top 10 or get sucked out. Those who rank maximum from thirteenth to fifteenth place have slight hopes of recovering and more of sinking. Whoever ranks from sixteenth place down is a filler song who will fight not to be eliminated in the semi-final or end up in the bottom 5. Barring more unique than rare surprises, this is the overall rule of Betting Odds.
Bookmakers don't always decide the winner but it is in their interest to ride a hype to stir things up. Uncertainty allows bets to increase. If the winner is declared from the first position no one would bet on other participants and the show becomes boring. This is also good for the bettor. Betting on another country with less probability and seeing it win pays more if the prediction is correct. Betting on Ukraine would mean earning a penny in case of victory. And here another point of view opens up: in the case of 2022 the friendly vote and Ukraine's perpetual standing elsewhere were a given (which in any case had a solid song) but now that Ukraine is at the top it is almost a non-invitation the public to vote for her until she wins. Ukraine will definitely finish in the Top 10 but they won't win. The Ukrainian song of 2024 is basic and also a probable NQ in other editions or for other nations but it will be pushed not only by the friendly vote for war but also because, if I understand correctly, the song expresses religious and feminist concepts by riding the wave of political correctness. Before continuing, I would like to point out that I am not talking about the Ukrainian duo, I am tired of this political correctness which is useless for raising awareness of a modern plague but more useful for obtaining consensus and publicity. And in fact it is taken over by people of dubious moral values. In Italy we can currently see Ferragni being investigated, after the beautiful words of Sanremo two years ago, for charity fraud.
Following Ayzelto's scheme a little, I will express my ideas. Croatia, Finland, Estonia, the Netherlands but I would also add San Marino and Austria will have to sweat out the jury's votes and with regards to the public votes they will also have to share the spoils. At the moment I don't see a Käärijää capable of channeling the votes of proud catchy lovers and winning. It could probably be Austria. I only maintain this doubt at the moment.
France and Belgium will do well because they are part of a small group to which is added Latvia and perhaps a few others (Azerbaijan? Armenia? Australia? Portugal? Georgia?). The most fearsome is Slimane. "Mon Amour" is basic but at the same time, like crystal clear water, it can be thirst-quenching in a crazy edition like this, victim of the Måneskin/Käärijää compositional duo. Compared to France, I find Belgium too "violent" in its emotional expressions and this will not help part of the public to connect.
Italy is evaluated with sufficiency. After understanding the quality, we try to confine it to the circle of happy songs. How can a song that talks about boredom be defined as cheerful? If you translate the words you notice that the text is sad and the interpreter ironically tries to laugh to chase away her demons. Angelina Mango is lucky because she has a song that doesn't clash with anyone else. We could define her as a Barbara Pravi of 2024. Her song captures you from the first bars, it is recognizable and features often sudden changes in rhythm and singing that pleasantly surprise the public. It's a three minute theater show. She is currently the favorite to win and I irritably think we all know this because there isn't the same pleasant uncertainty as in 2020/2021. She could only lose if she decide to modify her song too much by inserting Spanish and fall into the trap of exaggerated staging. "La Noia" is a song where "less is more" is the key rule. Too exaggerated choreography would make her song lose its power. So, if we want to make Italy lose, let's run to YT's ESC channel and write in unison that we want more Spanish language and crazy choreography. Maybe Durdust believes it.
Luxembourg will try to qualify. “Fighter” is a solid song but nothing more. Tali will be pampered like Gualazzi in 2011. Cyprus I don't know their choice and therefore I won't go too far. I'm only certain of the 12 point exchange with Greece. Legend has it that if Cyprus and Greece don't exchange 12 points the end of the world is near.
The United Kingdom will perhaps present itself with a campie choice and perhaps a more dynamic style than that of Gustaph. A guaranteed guilty pleasure and perhaps it will be able to aim for a thirst-quenching low Top 10.
We don't know Armenia, Azerbaijan, Greece and Georgia. There's no point in making assumptions. I'm just saying that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia won't win given their proximity to the eastern hot zone. They will be competitive at best.
Iceland will not surprise us, at the risk of making Europe seem anti-Semitic if the Palestinian singer wins. Israel and Iceland will cancel each other out (unless Israel decides to abandon the Contest). The other Icelandic proposals are not an ESC victory.
I draw a pitiful veil over Germany (the new James Newman) while over Spain we decided to focus more on the theme of empowerment and irreverence than on substance. St.Pedro was the best choice or I would have preferred Megara with "11:11". Spain will be able to try to exit the bottom 5 while Germany is doomed.
I struggle to understand the hype about Lithuania.
The contenders for victory for me are Italy and France. The politically correct unknown is Ukraine. The surprises could be Austria, Norway or maybe Greece. For the rest I see no hope. Sweden will only try to be moderately competitive to finish in a decent ranking position for a host country.
***An example of a personal message: the singer speaks through tears about his sister's intestinal blockage and from twelfth position he shoots up, obtaining a record number of points (voted by all those who have been constipated at least once in their life). This is one of the beauties of singing competitions.
Whoever is in the first five positions will be able to aim for victory but also be certain of a Top 10. Whoever is in sixth to twelfth place could acquire the role of outsider over time (perhaps the song is driven by a spectacular staging or by a political or personal message*** or both as in the case of Sobral), compete for the Top 10 or get sucked out. Those who rank maximum from thirteenth to fifteenth place have slight hopes of recovering and more of sinking. Whoever ranks from sixteenth place down is a filler song who will fight not to be eliminated in the semi-final or end up in the bottom 5. Barring more unique than rare surprises, this is the overall rule of Betting Odds.
Bookmakers don't always decide the winner but it is in their interest to ride a hype to stir things up. Uncertainty allows bets to increase. If the winner is declared from the first position no one would bet on other participants and the show becomes boring. This is also good for the bettor. Betting on another country with less probability and seeing it win pays more if the prediction is correct. Betting on Ukraine would mean earning a penny in case of victory. And here another point of view opens up: in the case of 2022 the friendly vote and Ukraine's perpetual standing elsewhere were a given (which in any case had a solid song) but now that Ukraine is at the top it is almost a non-invitation the public to vote for her until she wins. Ukraine will definitely finish in the Top 10 but they won't win. The Ukrainian song of 2024 is basic and also a probable NQ in other editions or for other nations but it will be pushed not only by the friendly vote for war but also because, if I understand correctly, the song expresses religious and feminist concepts by riding the wave of political correctness. Before continuing, I would like to point out that I am not talking about the Ukrainian duo, I am tired of this political correctness which is useless for raising awareness of a modern plague but more useful for obtaining consensus and publicity. And in fact it is taken over by people of dubious moral values. In Italy we can currently see Ferragni being investigated, after the beautiful words of Sanremo two years ago, for charity fraud.
Following Ayzelto's scheme a little, I will express my ideas. Croatia, Finland, Estonia, the Netherlands but I would also add San Marino and Austria will have to sweat out the jury's votes and with regards to the public votes they will also have to share the spoils. At the moment I don't see a Käärijää capable of channeling the votes of proud catchy lovers and winning. It could probably be Austria. I only maintain this doubt at the moment.
France and Belgium will do well because they are part of a small group to which is added Latvia and perhaps a few others (Azerbaijan? Armenia? Australia? Portugal? Georgia?). The most fearsome is Slimane. "Mon Amour" is basic but at the same time, like crystal clear water, it can be thirst-quenching in a crazy edition like this, victim of the Måneskin/Käärijää compositional duo. Compared to France, I find Belgium too "violent" in its emotional expressions and this will not help part of the public to connect.
Italy is evaluated with sufficiency. After understanding the quality, we try to confine it to the circle of happy songs. How can a song that talks about boredom be defined as cheerful? If you translate the words you notice that the text is sad and the interpreter ironically tries to laugh to chase away her demons. Angelina Mango is lucky because she has a song that doesn't clash with anyone else. We could define her as a Barbara Pravi of 2024. Her song captures you from the first bars, it is recognizable and features often sudden changes in rhythm and singing that pleasantly surprise the public. It's a three minute theater show. She is currently the favorite to win and I irritably think we all know this because there isn't the same pleasant uncertainty as in 2020/2021. She could only lose if she decide to modify her song too much by inserting Spanish and fall into the trap of exaggerated staging. "La Noia" is a song where "less is more" is the key rule. Too exaggerated choreography would make her song lose its power. So, if we want to make Italy lose, let's run to YT's ESC channel and write in unison that we want more Spanish language and crazy choreography. Maybe Durdust believes it.
Luxembourg will try to qualify. “Fighter” is a solid song but nothing more. Tali will be pampered like Gualazzi in 2011. Cyprus I don't know their choice and therefore I won't go too far. I'm only certain of the 12 point exchange with Greece. Legend has it that if Cyprus and Greece don't exchange 12 points the end of the world is near.
The United Kingdom will perhaps present itself with a campie choice and perhaps a more dynamic style than that of Gustaph. A guaranteed guilty pleasure and perhaps it will be able to aim for a thirst-quenching low Top 10.
We don't know Armenia, Azerbaijan, Greece and Georgia. There's no point in making assumptions. I'm just saying that Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia won't win given their proximity to the eastern hot zone. They will be competitive at best.
Iceland will not surprise us, at the risk of making Europe seem anti-Semitic if the Palestinian singer wins. Israel and Iceland will cancel each other out (unless Israel decides to abandon the Contest). The other Icelandic proposals are not an ESC victory.
I draw a pitiful veil over Germany (the new James Newman) while over Spain we decided to focus more on the theme of empowerment and irreverence than on substance. St.Pedro was the best choice or I would have preferred Megara with "11:11". Spain will be able to try to exit the bottom 5 while Germany is doomed.
I struggle to understand the hype about Lithuania.
The contenders for victory for me are Italy and France. The politically correct unknown is Ukraine. The surprises could be Austria, Norway or maybe Greece. For the rest I see no hope. Sweden will only try to be moderately competitive to finish in a decent ranking position for a host country.
***An example of a personal message: the singer speaks through tears about his sister's intestinal blockage and from twelfth position he shoots up, obtaining a record number of points (voted by all those who have been constipated at least once in their life). This is one of the beauties of singing competitions.
Last edited:
aef
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No this won’t score nearly as good with televoters and also not juries as you or others think.
DirtyFalcon
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I don't think we have any chance to win overall but come on, if juries doesn't eat this up, then they have their ears full of shit. Juries usually rewards technicity in the vocals, the interpretation of the song and if the singers transmits something on stage, not only the song. The staging will also be very similar toi Voilà i believe. Slimane is an experienced live performer, certainly one of the very best we've got here in France so if he flops at the juries, the people who will vote will never be able to call themselves juries again. La Zarra last year for example was predicted as a jury winner but there was no real justification in the end because she's not as good live as she's in studio and Slimane is leagues above her on stage. A flop with the juries for him, considering his talent would mean 7/8th at the juries.
aef
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I‘m sorry but you’re very likely wrong. It’s no new Voila. The song is way too cliché in a bad way and waaaay to cheesy. Also, juries are not only there to vote for good vocals. They need to judge the song as a whole product. Mon Amour is neither current nor unique. Voila was also cliché but in a good, unique way.
Maybe
will be top 15 or low top 10 with juries at best, not more.
gigi_copp3
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This will be my delulu anthem when Italy won't win
DirtyFalcon
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I‘m sorry but you’re very likely wrong. It’s no new Voila. The song is way too cliché in a bad way and waaaay to cheesy. Also, juries are not only there to vote for good vocals. They need to judge the song as a whole product. Mon Amour is neither current nor unique. Voila was also cliché but in a good, unique way.
Maybe
Read my initial message again please. I didn't compared Mon Amour to Voilà. i've just said the stagings will be similar. I don't compare the songs. Top 15 in the juries only ? Sheldon Riley in 2022 for example was cliché as fuck, unoriginal as possible + you didn't even saw his emotions and still he managed to be 9th in the juries. This is one example but i can find other ones if you want.
Mon Amour is the only classic ballad of the season so far. You might only have one or two more ballads playing in the same field in the end so he will easily stand out in the juries. You hate the song so you're not objective at all. I personnally like the song but i can recognize this has a risk to flop at the televote for example.
Slimane is not only a singer with amazing vocals dude. He's also an amazing performer live. Juries will see this. They have the eye and they usually reward this. Due Vite for example had nothing unique and special last year but i personnally loved it and they way Marco performed the song live amazed so many people and that's how he ended 5th. Alika was really classic as well, nothing unique and still ended 5th in the juries. I don't see how Slimane, with a fantastic live performance would not be able to repeat that.
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Grinch
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SpiritofKeiino
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I purposefully haven't listened to many songs. I do like France but don't see it as a winner. I think it will get decent jury support but won't click as much with televoters. I see it as a low top 10 overall, which is still a good result.
gigi_copp3
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Wrong topic
