I don't see 2014 scenario for Azerbaijan this year. I think this is a safe top-10, but their golden times seems over and not a real contender. However, I do see it's possible that misses out the top-10 and gets a result in the middle of the ranking.
Anyway, I think Azerbaijan kinda wasted Elnur. He's probably the best performer they've ever had. He's so natural and convincing, his way of perform is not as calculate as most of their past entrants. He would've stood out much more with a better song and a better staging.