Armenia ARMENIA 2018 - Sevak Khanagyan - Qami
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Schlagerman1
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Re: ARMENIA 2018
Looking through the performances tonight, I can somewhat understand why Tamar fails. I said early that this song is not a typical Tamar song, she had problems on many parts of the songs (the armenian ones especially). Also, I said early that it did sound more arabic than Armenian...and I suppose that the viewers just didn't buy it.
Lusine and Nemra was the best here. Lusine was so sweet and tender while Nemra improved a lot live, wouldn't mind seeing either in Lisbon. But the 2nd semi is the stronger one, so we'll see what happens there.
Looking through the performances tonight, I can somewhat understand why Tamar fails. I said early that this song is not a typical Tamar song, she had problems on many parts of the songs (the armenian ones especially). Also, I said early that it did sound more arabic than Armenian...and I suppose that the viewers just didn't buy it.
Lusine and Nemra was the best here. Lusine was so sweet and tender while Nemra improved a lot live, wouldn't mind seeing either in Lisbon. But the 2nd semi is the stronger one, so we'll see what happens there.
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ParadiseES
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Re: ARMENIA 2018
Tamar out is an absolute nonsense. Doesn't look clean AT ALL.
Tamar out is an absolute nonsense. Doesn't look clean AT ALL.
JonnyWest
Member
Re: ARMENIA 2018
Oh God Tamar was one of my favorites but thay performance was dreadful :?
Oh God Tamar was one of my favorites but thay performance was dreadful :?
Mrm
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Re: ARMENIA 2018
I understand why Tamar is out, it was really weak as hell..
I agree with all qualifiers, except Robert Koloyan, id replace him with Gata band who were the best but from the beginning I knew they won;t qualify..
Mger is the guilty pleasure, it's so bad that it becomes good!
Lusine and Nemra were really good...
Now waiting for the 2nd semi to rank what I like in the final and whom I want to win the ticket for Lisbon..
I understand why Tamar is out, it was really weak as hell..
I agree with all qualifiers, except Robert Koloyan, id replace him with Gata band who were the best
but from the beginning I knew they won;t qualify..Mger is the guilty pleasure, it's so bad that it becomes good!
Lusine and Nemra were really good...
Now waiting for the 2nd semi to rank what I like in the final and whom I want to win the ticket for Lisbon..
QwaarJet
ESC Moderator
Re: ARMENIA 2018
I said her rehearsal footage sounded poor, and so it was on the night. She didn't deserve to go through. There goes another fanwank!
Asmik will likely have the vocals to get through the semi, but ffs Armenia, you need to pick Sevak!
I said her rehearsal footage sounded poor, and so it was on the night. She didn't deserve to go through. There goes another fanwank!
Asmik will likely have the vocals to get through the semi, but ffs Armenia, you need to pick Sevak!
Haverdge
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ZoboCamel
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Re: ARMENIA 2018
After getting 4/5 qualifiers right for the first semi (I'd predicted Tamar over Lusine but guessed the others), here's what my pre-prediction model says will go through for SF2:
Sevak
Kamil
Asmik
Maria's Secret
Amaliya
Notes on the predicted qualifiers:
The top three look fairly safe based on the stats, but so did Tamar in SF1 (more on that in a bit), so there are no guarantees. Asmik and Sevak have promising rehearsal snippets and fairly accessible songs, so I'd imagine they're the safest bets here if all goes well. Kamil is, of course, more difficult to predict: she's absolutely going to stand out, and I'm imagining a big stage show, but it's entirely possible that she'll turn off the televoters or flop hard with the juries depending on how things go. There are just too many unknowns here for me; Kamil could win the whole NF or be a clear NQ and I wouldn't be surprised either way, depending on how things develop. For now, though, I'm predicting a qualification in third or fourth.
As for the other qualifiers, Maria's Secret and Amaliya are far behind the top three based on the stats, but are also safely ahead of the other five. I'm thinking Amaliya could be the pleasant surprise of SF2 like Lusine was in SF1, and she's got a safe but powerful song that should be compelling to juries: she's fairly likely to get through. That said, I'm feeling some nerves from the rehearsal video, so if those come out during the live performance - especially the climax - then she could kill her chances.
Meanwhile, Maria's Secret seems to be gaining momentum amongst fans lately and has the fourth-highest pre-show stats of the semi, but I'm hesitant to predict a qualification for her: the rehearsal snippet shows a tendency for her vocals to go off-key and shouty, and the rap section is a big question mark. Nonetheless, I'm agreeing with my model and saying she'll qualify in 5th-ish, as she's got potential, pre-show support and I can't see another candidate with clear qualification potential (as opposed to SF1, which had less big favourites but eight acts that seemed to be in with a chance).
Notes on the predicted non-qualifiers:
This'll be a little bit shorter, as most of these can just be summed up with "they don't have a particularly good song". Tyom has the highest stats of these five, but appears to have received next to no fan love, and his rehearsal seems amateurish at best. Mariam has perhaps gained some momentum off the back of winning that seven-note contest thing, but I'm not entirely sure about that translating to a spot in the finals, as her NF song remains unremarkable. Still, her live performance seems competent enough, which I'm expecting to take her to around a sixth-place finish - so if one of the five songs above her falls, then she seems to be the next in line for a qualification.
Suren seems to have good vocals with a safe ballad that could appeal to televoters and juries alike if the stronger songs screw up, so I can't count him out completely. That said, he's seen little support and his song is overall bland, so he's more of just a backup qualifier in my eyes. Finally, Alternativ and Arman really don't seem to have anything going for them: mediocre rehearsals, no fan love and next to no support in any of the metrics of my model. I'd be surprised if they made it.
Essentially:
Sevak and Asmik appear to be the two safest acts here however you look at it, though again Tamar's downfall in SF1 shows a weak performance can kill off anyone. Kamil and Amaliya are probably in, but each have their caveats, while Maria's Secret is fifth on my list largely for lack of a better alternative. So those are my top five. Any spots freed up by flops from that group will then likely be filled in by Mariam --> Suren --> Tyom in that order of probability, I think, with Alternativ and Arman looking chanceless.
Some thoughts on SF1, and future predictions:
The biggest talking point here has, obviously, been Tamar's NQ. While I do enjoy her song and would've put it through in my own top 5, I always thought it seemed a little overhyped, and when taking the performance into account, the flop isn't particularly surprising. Her vocals weren't perfect and she looked a little awkward, so the juries could've marked her down for that; otherwise, I've heard a few Armenian fans say her image and character didn't really mesh with the usual Armenian televoter preferences, which on top of the vocals could've damaged her on that end. She seems to have done well in one metric and not so well in the other, based on comments I've seen, and we don't yet know which is which, but due to the points above I wouldn't be too surprised either way, as both groups have reason to mark her down.
None of the qualifying acts were particularly surprising after having seen the performances, as they were all at least competent in that regard (barring the usual comments about Mger and his fetus video on a tablet strapped to his dancer's stomach and, well, everything else about that performance. But I digress). Based on my personal opinion, my pre-projections with Tamar excluded and comments I've seen elsewhere, I'd say Nemra was the overall favourite from the semi, but of course we can't know for sure until full stats are (hopefully) released later. I'd usually like to look at views of individual semi performances on YouTube to gauge interest, but they don't seem to have been uploaded as split videos yet.
If SF2 goes generally as expected, then I'd expect the win to be a bit of a five-way battle between: 1. Sevak (perhaps the most likely due to his combination of a strong song, great vocals and a sizable fanbase), 2. Asmik (if the juries prefer her more conventional pop sound), 3. Mger (who's known to not exactly play fair and has already been given preferential treatment by producers, indicating some bias), 4. Nemra (following on from the momentum of a possible SF1 win and their distinct style) and 5. Kamil (if her impact translates to televotes and the juries decide not to kill her chances).
But of course, we still have the second semi to go yet, so who knows? If the first is anything to go by, we may well lose another of the favourites by the time the final rolls around
After getting 4/5 qualifiers right for the first semi (I'd predicted Tamar over Lusine but guessed the others), here's what my pre-prediction model says will go through for SF2:
Sevak
Kamil
Asmik
Maria's Secret
Amaliya
Notes on the predicted qualifiers:
The top three look fairly safe based on the stats, but so did Tamar in SF1 (more on that in a bit), so there are no guarantees. Asmik and Sevak have promising rehearsal snippets and fairly accessible songs, so I'd imagine they're the safest bets here if all goes well. Kamil is, of course, more difficult to predict: she's absolutely going to stand out, and I'm imagining a big stage show, but it's entirely possible that she'll turn off the televoters or flop hard with the juries depending on how things go. There are just too many unknowns here for me; Kamil could win the whole NF or be a clear NQ and I wouldn't be surprised either way, depending on how things develop. For now, though, I'm predicting a qualification in third or fourth.
As for the other qualifiers, Maria's Secret and Amaliya are far behind the top three based on the stats, but are also safely ahead of the other five. I'm thinking Amaliya could be the pleasant surprise of SF2 like Lusine was in SF1, and she's got a safe but powerful song that should be compelling to juries: she's fairly likely to get through. That said, I'm feeling some nerves from the rehearsal video, so if those come out during the live performance - especially the climax - then she could kill her chances.
Meanwhile, Maria's Secret seems to be gaining momentum amongst fans lately and has the fourth-highest pre-show stats of the semi, but I'm hesitant to predict a qualification for her: the rehearsal snippet shows a tendency for her vocals to go off-key and shouty, and the rap section is a big question mark. Nonetheless, I'm agreeing with my model and saying she'll qualify in 5th-ish, as she's got potential, pre-show support and I can't see another candidate with clear qualification potential (as opposed to SF1, which had less big favourites but eight acts that seemed to be in with a chance).
Notes on the predicted non-qualifiers:
This'll be a little bit shorter, as most of these can just be summed up with "they don't have a particularly good song". Tyom has the highest stats of these five, but appears to have received next to no fan love, and his rehearsal seems amateurish at best. Mariam has perhaps gained some momentum off the back of winning that seven-note contest thing, but I'm not entirely sure about that translating to a spot in the finals, as her NF song remains unremarkable. Still, her live performance seems competent enough, which I'm expecting to take her to around a sixth-place finish - so if one of the five songs above her falls, then she seems to be the next in line for a qualification.
Suren seems to have good vocals with a safe ballad that could appeal to televoters and juries alike if the stronger songs screw up, so I can't count him out completely. That said, he's seen little support and his song is overall bland, so he's more of just a backup qualifier in my eyes. Finally, Alternativ and Arman really don't seem to have anything going for them: mediocre rehearsals, no fan love and next to no support in any of the metrics of my model. I'd be surprised if they made it.
Essentially:
Sevak and Asmik appear to be the two safest acts here however you look at it, though again Tamar's downfall in SF1 shows a weak performance can kill off anyone. Kamil and Amaliya are probably in, but each have their caveats, while Maria's Secret is fifth on my list largely for lack of a better alternative. So those are my top five. Any spots freed up by flops from that group will then likely be filled in by Mariam --> Suren --> Tyom in that order of probability, I think, with Alternativ and Arman looking chanceless.
Some thoughts on SF1, and future predictions:
The biggest talking point here has, obviously, been Tamar's NQ. While I do enjoy her song and would've put it through in my own top 5, I always thought it seemed a little overhyped, and when taking the performance into account, the flop isn't particularly surprising. Her vocals weren't perfect and she looked a little awkward, so the juries could've marked her down for that; otherwise, I've heard a few Armenian fans say her image and character didn't really mesh with the usual Armenian televoter preferences, which on top of the vocals could've damaged her on that end. She seems to have done well in one metric and not so well in the other, based on comments I've seen, and we don't yet know which is which, but due to the points above I wouldn't be too surprised either way, as both groups have reason to mark her down.
None of the qualifying acts were particularly surprising after having seen the performances, as they were all at least competent in that regard (barring the usual comments about Mger and his fetus video on a tablet strapped to his dancer's stomach and, well, everything else about that performance. But I digress). Based on my personal opinion, my pre-projections with Tamar excluded and comments I've seen elsewhere, I'd say Nemra was the overall favourite from the semi, but of course we can't know for sure until full stats are (hopefully) released later. I'd usually like to look at views of individual semi performances on YouTube to gauge interest, but they don't seem to have been uploaded as split videos yet.
If SF2 goes generally as expected, then I'd expect the win to be a bit of a five-way battle between: 1. Sevak (perhaps the most likely due to his combination of a strong song, great vocals and a sizable fanbase), 2. Asmik (if the juries prefer her more conventional pop sound), 3. Mger (who's known to not exactly play fair and has already been given preferential treatment by producers, indicating some bias), 4. Nemra (following on from the momentum of a possible SF1 win and their distinct style) and 5. Kamil (if her impact translates to televotes and the juries decide not to kill her chances).
But of course, we still have the second semi to go yet, so who knows? If the first is anything to go by, we may well lose another of the favourites by the time the final rolls around
