I have a feeling it will be Romania. Like Turkey back in 2011, middle aged rockers with a bald headed lead will be their downfall.
Russia isn't failing because it's Russia. Azerbaijan came close to failure last year, but have a song this year that will be more appealing to voters, and as for Greece? Well, they are trying something different, but the song is a jury magnet. It might not be the party from Greece we have come to expect, but I highly doubt they'll fail when they have so many friends and a song the jury will go nuts for.