The grey vote, the oldest voters, is not something many within the contest give much thought to, but they have proven to be a major televote factor and may have had much to do with picking the winners, especially the recent wins of Portugal, Norway and possibly Austria, as these songs were quite old fashioned.
So who do you think is going to benefit from the grey votes this year?
First off, obviously the odds leading entries are likely to get points from the oldest voters this year - especially Switzerland, which is why i predict a Salvador Sobral-like win with over 100 points lead and 8-12 points from more than half of the countries. Then there's France which i think is greatly overrated, both in quality and possible result, but it's gonna get some of these votes if any. Iceland seems so-so too, but i think it's not going to do as well as expected, and the irony/kitsch style of it is going to be lost on most viewers.
But also keep in mind that today's elderlies are not those of 20 years ago, and even those up to 80 are not as into calm, soothing and nostalgic music as many seem to think. My own old relatives and their 70-75+ friends, if anything, pretty much only listen to rock, and their view of the ESC is that it's too many "fake artists" who don't play any instruments.
If anything, what's going to score with them is Finland, and they have also received an overwhelmingly positive response from all age groups, which is kind of ironic for an act celebrating such juvenile antics, but that's how it is today. What today's elders tend to dislike most is what they see as overly manufactured pop, as well as old school schlager and anything that's just too old for them.
Italy kind of plays into the same category, but i think it's a bit too weird and Italian, the message is less clear, and their "kinky" outfits may be another turnoff for the older audience.
Then there's of course Portugal, who doesn't seem to be all that highly rated by most, but if they manage a surprisingly good result, the grey vote is probably to thank for it. And if Belarus had actually been in it, i'm sure they would have benefitted, i really don't think either of their songs were bad musically.
However, many of these older people also like soul, which might lead to some votes for Malta and even San Marino, the former for having such an outstanding soul vocalist and the latter for bringing a sort of fun that older women nowadays seem to be really into, Australia kinda comes close to it too, but i think the "girly screaminess" is a turnoff there. UK sorta has a soul vibe too, but i don't think they will be successful.
Poland and especially Denmark brings a kind of nostalgia that i'm sure will have some limited success, but it might not be enough to be noticed in the scores at all (though i'm really hoping for Poland to qualify!). The most classic and conservative entries this year would be Austria and Slovenia, ironically with the same title, but i don't see great results for either of then. Norway, sorta, but i think he might just get random votes here and there, for mostly non-musical reasons.
Finally i have a feeling Germany might appeal to some kinda older-segment-fun-factor for some reason, with the tap dance and all. And if Macedonia, Spain and/or Georgia ends up anything but last, surely the grey vote is to thank for that as well.
So, summing it up, i say: Switzerland, Finland, Portugal and Malta, in that order.
So who do you think is going to benefit from the grey votes this year?
First off, obviously the odds leading entries are likely to get points from the oldest voters this year - especially Switzerland, which is why i predict a Salvador Sobral-like win with over 100 points lead and 8-12 points from more than half of the countries. Then there's France which i think is greatly overrated, both in quality and possible result, but it's gonna get some of these votes if any. Iceland seems so-so too, but i think it's not going to do as well as expected, and the irony/kitsch style of it is going to be lost on most viewers.
But also keep in mind that today's elderlies are not those of 20 years ago, and even those up to 80 are not as into calm, soothing and nostalgic music as many seem to think. My own old relatives and their 70-75+ friends, if anything, pretty much only listen to rock, and their view of the ESC is that it's too many "fake artists" who don't play any instruments.
If anything, what's going to score with them is Finland, and they have also received an overwhelmingly positive response from all age groups, which is kind of ironic for an act celebrating such juvenile antics, but that's how it is today. What today's elders tend to dislike most is what they see as overly manufactured pop, as well as old school schlager and anything that's just too old for them.
Italy kind of plays into the same category, but i think it's a bit too weird and Italian, the message is less clear, and their "kinky" outfits may be another turnoff for the older audience.
Then there's of course Portugal, who doesn't seem to be all that highly rated by most, but if they manage a surprisingly good result, the grey vote is probably to thank for it. And if Belarus had actually been in it, i'm sure they would have benefitted, i really don't think either of their songs were bad musically.
However, many of these older people also like soul, which might lead to some votes for Malta and even San Marino, the former for having such an outstanding soul vocalist and the latter for bringing a sort of fun that older women nowadays seem to be really into, Australia kinda comes close to it too, but i think the "girly screaminess" is a turnoff there. UK sorta has a soul vibe too, but i don't think they will be successful.
Poland and especially Denmark brings a kind of nostalgia that i'm sure will have some limited success, but it might not be enough to be noticed in the scores at all (though i'm really hoping for Poland to qualify!). The most classic and conservative entries this year would be Austria and Slovenia, ironically with the same title, but i don't see great results for either of then. Norway, sorta, but i think he might just get random votes here and there, for mostly non-musical reasons.
Finally i have a feeling Germany might appeal to some kinda older-segment-fun-factor for some reason, with the tap dance and all. And if Macedonia, Spain and/or Georgia ends up anything but last, surely the grey vote is to thank for that as well.
So, summing it up, i say: Switzerland, Finland, Portugal and Malta, in that order.
