The greatest & weakest victories in Eurovision (1975-2012)

[GRE]

Everybody believe that the biggest victory in eurovision is Norways back in 2009.
But is that statistically true?
Norway has got 387 points of the maximum 492 that could take from all other countries.
That means got 78,65% of votes.
Its not in the lead anyway.
Lets have a look to the five biggest and weakest victories with the voting system as we know (1 to 12 points).
1.United Kingdom 1976 80,39%
2.Germany 1982 78,92%
3.United Kingdom 1997 78,81%
4.Norway 2009 78,65%
5.Ireland 1994 78,47%

Which entries are in the bottom of the list?
-Germany 2010 53,94%
-Greece 2005 50,43%
-Azerbaijan 2011 43,94% the weakest victory in the history of eurovision (1975-2012) with the new system voting.

 

[AAore]

Azerbaijan being in the bottom doesn't surprise me.. I did not like that song at all.

 

[Jim]

And I guess a victory like Azerbaijan's in 2011 for this year too!

 

[Terence]

I'm surprised at 2005 though! Granted, there were many contenders in 2005 but the Greek song was the big favourite back then and remains a Eurovision classic that it's hard to believe it's among the 'smallest' winners

 

[Yamarus]

It seems pretty logical that the percentage would fall in the 2000 era, with the massive increase in participating countries and it makes Alexander Ryback's result even more impressive.

 

[Verjamem]

Crushing victory is easier when 16-17 countries are voting, than when 40-43 countries is able to vote.

 

[GRE]

ok lets see the victories of last decade when eurovision became bigger.
2004 66,66%
2005 50,43%
2006 65,76%
2007 54,47%
2008 53,96%
2009 78,65%
2010 53,94%
2011 43,94%
2012 75,60%

 

[Mannone]

But is that statistically true?

1.United Kingdom 1976 80,39%
2.Germany 1982 78,92%
3.United Kingdom 1997 78,81%
4.Norway 2009 78,65%
5.Ireland 1994 78,47%

This is the easy way to look at data. With a little more sceptical eye, at least some aspects make it very difficult to compare early years with recent editions.

1. As Verjamem stated, only 18 countries voted in 1976. 43 countries voted in 2009. Accordingly, you should prefer to make some statistical testing where you compensate for those differences in population size.

2. The juries weren't composed in the same way back then. Wikipedia states: "In the past, small demographically-balanced juries made up of ordinary people were used to rank the entries." And nowadays we have juries that are composed primarily of people who work with music. Accordingly, you should prefer to compensate for this in your statistical measuring. Maybe not the easiest task to approach, but I think it's important not to ignore this difference. We probably have more or less variance in demographically-balanced juries than in professional juries. What we do know though, is that the professional juries' taste differs from the televoters', and the 1976 juries was probably more representative for todays televoters than for the current professional juries. That is not very certain either though, because todays voting system isn't aimed at being "demographically-balanced". However, we may still conclude that the professional juries are "buffering" the televoting results in one way or another.

Finally, I'm not trying to deny your raw percentages. They are still true, and from that perspective United Kingdom (1976) won by the biggest share of the score, to date. But that's all there is to it. You can't make any other claims. It wasn't the "most superior winner ever" - France (1976) got 72 % of the votes in second place, which would be another way to capture the "Greatest victory ever". I mean, it was only 8 % between 1st and 2nd in 1976 - not a very superior victory. In contrast, Rybak (2009) won by 34 % ahead of Iceland in 2nd place. A little more of a landslide, don't you think?

Conclusion: The greatest victory of all time can be measured in more than one way.

 

[hijirio]

I don't think Azerbaijan being in the bottom in this list makes it the worst song among them. After all, the rivals of them weren't the same as those of Rybak's. Norway could have won with 45% of the votes in a verrrrrrrrrrrry tough year and Azerbaijan could have won with 85% percentage in an edition full of awful songs. And I personally think 2011 was a very tough year!

 

[GRE]

Norway could have won with 45% of the votes in a verrrrrrrrrrrry tough year and Azerbaijan could have won with 85% percentage in an edition full of awful songs.

Now its the moment to get back to reality.The opposite happened.
Rybak won by far in a very difficult year,and Azerbaijan had the less points for a winner,in a weak year.

 

[demonl]

You have to separate modern eurovision which is around 03 onwards from old eurovision. Rybak is the greatest winner in modern eurovision, Loreen came close but failed (and she had so much hype going in unlike Rybak who didnt have anywhere near the hype).

 

[GRE]

You have to separate modern eurovision which is around 03 onwards from old eurovision. Rybak is the greatest winner in modern eurovision, Loreen came close but failed (and she had so much hype going in unlike Rybak who didnt have anywhere near the hype).

Some people say that maybe Emilie can break the record of Rybak.

 

[Yamarus]

Some people say that maybe Emilie can break the record of Rybak.

No chance in hell.

 

[GRE]

No chance in hell.

Don't you think she has the impact of Rybak or Loreen?
Everyone loves it!

 

[Fluke]

How about listing the difference between 1st and 2nd place instead?

 

[Terence]

Don't you think she has the impact of Rybak or Loreen?
Everyone loves it!

I don't think she will break the record but this year there's just no real favourite that she could sweep the 10s and 12s and the remaining votes could be split, leaving a gap between the first and second place.

 

[esc87fan]

Don't you think she has the impact of Rybak or Loreen?
Everyone loves it!

I wouldn't say everyone loves it, I think it's just way overhyped. That hype could really die down the time the final comes around, yes it will qualify easily out of semi 1 but Emmelie could bomb under pressure in the final - some hot favorites have been known to fail in the past. I don't think she will smash Alexander's points record or even Loreen's top mark record

 

[Yamarus]

Don't you think she has the impact of Rybak or Loreen?
Everyone loves it!

No-one outside of the ESC fan community has heard of "Only Teardrops", whilst Loreen's song was publicised much more than usual before the contest even took place. Its plausible that Denmark will win, although if it does it will do so with a small margin (like in 2011).