Short analysis of Estonian voting

[eerik]

I spent a few hours making and filling this table. So now for the conclusions.


Our lovely neighbours!
Countries that have always (including semi-finals) received points from us are our neighbours Latvia and Russia. Latvia gets our votes for being a good friend of ours, so it can be considered political. Russia on the other hand is a completely different story. On a government level they consider us their enemies and vice versa. Their points come thanks to diaspora - more than 25% of our population is Russians. Another country that we have always voted for is Georgia. Their diaspora in Estonia is non-existant and I cannot call it political voting either. I guess we just feel sympathy towards Georgians, as Russia keeps bullying them. Especially after August 2008. Plus they've been quite successful in Eurovision.


Nordic countries, we love you, too!
Next countries on our top list are Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. Iceland is a bit lower. Finland and Sweden of course are our good oversea neighbours with historical connections, etc. Not sure about Norway, Denmark and Iceland...


Balkans, no points for you, sorry...
And now for the bottom of our list. Statistics say that if your country is in South-Eastern Europe, you are very unlikely to receive any points from us. Greece has been the luckiest country, they've received points from seven times out of 18 possible times, which is still quite low result. Macedonia is at the very bottom of our list. We have been able to vote for them 13 times and we have never given them any points, at all!


And here is the list itself:
Country - times received points from us/times we've been able to vote for them (probability of getting points from us)

Russia - 18/18 (1)
Latvia - 14/14 (1)
Georgia - 6/6 (1)
Czech Republic - 1/1 (1)
Finland - 13/15 (0.87)
Sweden - 17/20 (0.85)
Norway - 14/19 (0.74)
Ukraine - 11/15 (0.73)
Denmark - 13/18 (0.72)
Italy - 2/3 (0.67)
Belgium - 9/14 (0.64)
Ireland - 12/19 (0.63)
Lithuania - 8/13 (0.62)
Hungary - 6/10 (0.6)
Germany - 10/17 (0.59)
Iceland - 11/19 (0.58)
Malta - 11/19 (0.58)
Azerbaijan - 4/7 (0.57)
Belarus - 5/9 (0.56)
United Kingdom - 9/18 (0.5)
France - 8/18 (0.44)
Andorra - 2/5 (0.4)
Israel - 5/14 (0.38)
Greece - 7/19 (0.37)
Austria - 4/12 (0.33)
Monaco - 1/3 (0.33)
S & M - 1/3 (0.33)
Cyprus - 5/17 (0.29)
Romania - 4/15 (0.27)
Croatia - 5/19 (0.26)
Moldova - 3/12 (0.25)
Slovenia - 4/16 (0.25)
Switzerland - 3/12 (0.25)
Netherlands - 4/18 (0.22)
Serbia - 2/9 (0.22)
Poland - 3/14 (0.21)
Albania - 2/11 (0.18)
Spain - 3/17 (0.18)
Bulgaria - 1/6 (0.17)
Turkey - 3/19 (0.16)
Armenia - 1/7 (0.14)
Slovakia - 1/7 (0.14)
Portugal - 2/18 (0.11)
B & H - 2/22 (0.09)
San Marino - 0/1 (0)
Montenegro - 0/2 (0)
Macedonia - 0/15 (0)


How many points have we given to Eurovision winners?
1994 - Ireland - 10
1996 - Ireland - 12
1997 - United Kingdom - 10
1998 - Israel - 4
1999 - Sweden - 12
2000 - Denmark - 8
2001 - Estonia - x
2002 - Latvia - 12
2003 - Turkey - 0
2004 - Ukraine - 12
2005 - Greece - 0
2006 - Finland - 12
2007 - Serbia - 0
2008 - Russia - 12
2009 - Norway - 12
2010 - Germany - 12
2011 - Azerbaijan - 8
2012 - Sweden - 12

This confirms the fact I stated earlier: South-Eastern countries are very unlikely to get points from us, even if they win the Eurovision.


Who has received 12 points from us? (Finals only)
Sweden - 4
Russia - 3
Latvia - 2
Poland - 1
Ireland - 1
France - 1
Denmark - 1
Finland - 1
Germany - 1
Norway - 1
Switzerland - 1
Ukraine - 1

As you can see it's quite widespread. Only three countries have received 12 points from us more than once. They are all our neighbours but they have also won the Eurovision during our participation years.

 

[Yamarus]

Interesting, I like these analyses! :-D

 

[Kryptonite]

Wow, very interesting.

 

[CPV4931]

Interesting analysis :-)

Didn´t expect, that Germany recieved quite often points from Estonia.

 

[Gerly]

Thank you a lot eerik for that information! It was really interesting to read it all...
Sad that we didn't give any points to Paparizou I like she a lot But thats the past...and she won anyway.

About Georgia. I think the war in 2008 connected us a bit! At least I felt very bad, when I saw what Russia is doing to Georgia. And I kept myself informed of everything that was happening there. And my family also scared to stay in Estonia. We thought that next can be us...whenever it had happened. So maybe thats the reason or Georgia is sending just great songs! And that's true.

Sad that no points to Macedonia and Slovakia. I loved Slovakia song in 2010 a lot and voted for that =)

 

[Sabiondo]

About Georgia. I think the war in 2008 connected us a bit! At least I felt very bad, when I saw what Russia is doing to Georgia. And I kept myself informed of everything that was happening there. And my family also scared to stay in Estonia. We thought that next can be us...whenever it had happened. So maybe thats the reason or Georgia is sending just great songs! And that's true.

Sorry, but was Georgia was who attacked Russia by an desperate lunatic who wanting to get his country into NATO, what happens is that some countries still continue to see Russia as the bad of the movie, when was confirmed that Bush was plan all just for to ensure geopolitical space.

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

I dont really think that the Russia/Georgia conflict has anything to do with the Estonian voting pattern . If Estonia gives points to Georgia out of sympathy then that's pretty sad, actually I dont think they do though, otherwise Russia wouldn't be Estonia's favourite would they?
As for voting for the United Kingdom, 0.47 is just under half so we have a good chance of getting your points . I must say I do tend to like the votes of the Baltic states!

 

[CC92]

I must say I do tend to like the votes of the Baltic states!

I most times could not diagree more (esp. with Latvia and Estonia). Worse is just the Maltese voting but that is so awful that it became Eurovision cult.

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

I most times could not diagree more (esp. with Latvia and Estonia). Worse is just the Maltese voting but that is so awful that it became Eurovision cult.

Well I like Estonia and Latvia cuz they do vote for us sometimes . And also I usually like the Russian entry so I like the points going to them!
As for Malta, they're just uber-awesome cuz they gave douze to SCOOCH!

 

[eerik]

otherwise Russia wouldn't be Estonia's favourite would they?

It's diaspora. I don't think that many ethnic Estonians vote for Russia (although they've had some great entries, I loved t.A.T.u and Peter Nalitch). We have 20% of population who will vote for only one country and 80% of population who will vote for 20+ other contries.

 

[AlekS]

We have 20% of population who will vote for only one country...

It's like saying that all Estonians are dumb.

 

[Sabiondo]

It's like saying that all Estonians are dumb.

Also is like to say that the Ukrainans are dumb too cause us keep voting always ala blindness to Russia in the televotings, just like the Estonians

 

[MyHeartIsYours]

Well not all Russian Estonians will vote for Russia, it just depends on the individual . My heritage is Irish diaspora in the United Kingdom, and I probably over-enthusiastically support the Irish entry each year because I feel something special towards it, but it doesnt mean Im gunna vote for it .

 

[AlekS]

Also is like to say that the Ukrainans are dumb too

as well as Venezuelans (sp?). Prejudices are the same.

 

[AlekS]

Well not all Russian Estonians will vote for Russia, it just depends on the individual . My heritage is Irish diaspora in the United Kingdom, and I probably over-enthusiastically support the Irish entry each year because I feel something special towards it, but it doesnt mean Im gunna vote for it .

xyeah


and btw, Pryhod'ko was extremely hated in Russia for being Ukrainian (I think I shouldn't remind Russian president declaring the war on us, no?) so saying/hinting that it's Russian diaspora vote is really incorrect.

 

[eerik]

It's like saying that all Estonians are dumb.

Not sure what you mean by that. Most (but definitely not all) local Russians will vote for Russia, and that's a fact. It's largely due to our poor integration policy. Local Russians are oriented by Kremlin media and feel like they are outsiders in Estonia. Local Russians who co-operate with Estonians are often viewed as traitors. Russian student who defended our new education policy - traitor. Runner-up of "Estonian Idol" contest - traitor. Russian man who asked for exile for his family - traitor. Sad, but true. Oh, well, this is getting too much political. Let's continue with Eurovision.

 

[AlekS]

Not sure what you mean by that. Most (but definitely not all) local Russians will vote for Russia, and that's a fact. It's largely due to our poor integration policy. Local Russians are oriented by Kremlin media and feel like they are outsiders in Estonia. Local Russians who co-operate with Estonians are often viewed as traitors. Russian student who defended our new education policy - traitor. Runner-up of "Estonian Idol" contest - traitor. Russian man who asked for exile for his family - traitor. Sad, but true. Oh, well, this is getting too much political. Let's continue with Eurovision.

You don't need to explain all of that because I perfectly know how it's like in Estonia. I read your press, I watch Russian channels and Estonian channel, I have friends in Estonia, blah blah blah

The fact is that Pryhod'ko was hated by majority of Russians and surely almost all Russian diaspora couldn't vote for her as we were in the middle of the gas war and both our performers were screwed by Russia in 2009. + You said yourself that you supported Georgians and we appeared in almost the same situation after Georgia and it coincided with Eurovision season

The song wasn't really Russian but rather Ukrainian (including the language, clothes, type of lyrics, authors etc.) so it could definitely appeal to the rest of Estonians... It was dark, there was something pagan, it was folky.

 

[eerik]

Updated the statistics with 2012 information. Didn't need to change anything in the text part as this year didn't bring any noticeable difference. We still "love" Baltics, Nordics and Russia. We still "hate" South-Eastern Europe.