Semifinal 1 - outlook

[rajo]

OUTLOOK

#1 Montenegro
for the song: hopeless
for the draw: complicated
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: hopeless
overall: hopeless

#2 Iceland
for the song: great
for the draw: complicated
for the friends' votes: complicated
for the juries: great
overall: decent

#3 Greece
for the song: complicated
for the draw: complicated
for the friends' votes: complicated
for the juries: hopeless
overall: complicated

#4 Latvia
for the song: decent
for the draw: complicated
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: complicated
overall: complicated

#5 Albania
for the song: decent
for the draw: complicated
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: great
overall: decent

#6 Romania
for the song: decent
for the draw: decent
for the friends' votes: decent
for the juries: decent
overall: great

#7 Switzerland
for the song: complicated
for the draw: decent
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: complicated
overall: complicated

#8 Belgium
for the song: hopeless
for the draw: decent
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: complicated
overall: hopeless

#9 Finland
for the song: complicated
for the draw: decent
for the friends' votes: complicated
for the juries: decent
overall: complicated

#10 Israel
for the song: decent
for the draw: decent
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: decent
overall: decent

#11 San Marino
for the song: hopeless
for the draw: decent
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: hopeless
overall: hopeless

#12 Cyprus
for the song: decent
for the draw: decent
for the friends' votes: complicated
for the juries: complicated
overall:decent

#13 Denmark
for the song: decent
for the draw: great
for the friends' votes: complicated
for the juries: decent
overall: decent

#14 Russia
for the song: decent
for the draw: great
for the friends' votes: complicated
for the juries: complicated
overall: decent

#15 Hungary
for the song: complicated
for the draw: great
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: complicated
overall:complicated

#16 Austria
for the song: complicated
for the draw: great
for the friends' votes: hopeless
for the juries: complicated
overall: complicated

#17 Moldova
for the song: complicated
for the draw: great
for the friends' votes: complicated
for the juries: complicated
overall: complicated

#18 Ireland
for the song: complicated
for the draw: great
for the friends' votes: complicated
for the juries: complicated
overall: complicated

 

[rajo]

So the battle in Semifinal 1 is very hard, the outcome almost unpredictable.

Based on the scores (hopeless=0, great=3),

Iceland, Romania and Denmark score 8
Russia scores 7
Albania, Finland, Israel, Cyprus, Moldova and Ireland score 6


Out:
Hungary, Austria just missing out
Latvia, Switzerland score 4
Greece, Belgium score 3
San Marino scores 2
Montenegro scores 1

 

[SiXo]

After I heard songs many times and saw all rehearsals I think in final we will see:


Definitely:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Big chance:
7.
8.

Not sure:
9.
10.

Could happend:

 

[Kristi]

Who I want to see in the final :

1. Switzerland
2. Albania
3. Cyprus
4. Denmark
5. Iceland
6. Austria
7. Russia
8. Romania
9. Moldova
10. Finland

What I think :

Qualifiers :

90-100% chance : Greece , Romania , Russia
60-90% chance : Cyprus , Iceland , Albania , Denmark
40-60% chance : Ireland , Austria , Moldova

Borderline (countries in bold might surprise) :

20-40% chance : Israel , Hungary , Belgium , Finland , Latvia , Switzerland

Hopeless :

0-20% chance : San Marino
less than 0% chance : Montenegro

 

[Terence]

After the rehearsals...

100% chance:
90%-100% chance:
60%-90% chance:
50%-60% chance:

Borderline
20%-50% chance

Hopeless:
0%-20% chance:

 

[Mannone]

less than 0% chance : Montenegro

I like your "less than 0 % chance"-prediction. Here is my suggestion:

Definitely Final: Greece, Romania, Cyprus, Iceland - Everything except final would be sensational for any of these.

Probably Final: Hungary, Switzerland, Ireland - They seem likely, but doesn't feel safe. People can be tired of Jedward, and the hungarian singer could fail.

Possibly Final: Moldova, Finland, Denmark, Latvia, Albania, Belgium. - From this group I need 3 finalists, and they feel hard to grade. Albania is odd but at least gives a serious impression. I don't believe they will make it though. And Denmark could be in jeopardy with their quite boring song (my opinion, of course). I feel pretty hopeful for Latvia though, and believe they have a fair chance of qualifying. I finally bet my brains for Moldova, Denmark, and Latvia rising just higher than Iris and Pernilla.

Farewell: Russia, San Marino, Montenegro, Austria, Israel - Boring or lousy. I can't see either people nor juries vote for this. When it comes to Russia, at least juries will risk to much by voting for this. The competition is going straight to hell if Russia gets more than 0 points from juries. I can't see that happening.

 

[ayzelto]

Sure in the final:
Maybe:
Not in the final:

 

[QwaarJet]

Guaranteed : Iceland, Russia, Ireland, Romania, Israel, Cyprus, Belgium (controversial)

Borderline : Albania, Finland, Moldova, Hungary, Switzerland, San Marino, Austria, Denmark

Little chance : Montenegro, Latvia, Greece (controversial!)

 

[GRE]

I believe that after the 1st rehearsal,
the 10 finalists could be
Iceland
Greece
Albania
Romania
Finland
Cyprus
Denmark
Russia
Moldova
Ireland

 

[rajo]

In terms of "friendly votes" Semifinal 1 is pretty balanced and fair. So everybody has a chance to pass or to lose. So it depends on the song.

Semifinal 2 is more unfriendly and I don't see any of the friendless countries proceed (Malta, Portugal, Netherlands, Bulgaria and Slovakia). But at least three countries which usually profit from friendly votes also have to fail because only 10 can pass. Maybe Turkey again? And Norway?

 

[tooom]

I think Montenegro will surprise a lot of people on these boards. Won't necessarily make it to the final, but it definitely has a shot.

 

[Jetro]

Denmark will win semifinal 1. I am so sure of it. You can quote me on that.

 

[Jopi]

Sure in the final: Greece,Iceland,Romania,Cyprus,Denmark,Ireland
Maybe: Switzerland,Hungary,Moldova,Belgium,Israel,Austria.
Not in the final: Montenegro,Russia,Albania,Finland,Latvia,San Marino.

 

[Terence]

I'm amazed at how many people are predicting Russia to fail... if they made it in 2010, then they will make it last year!

I know last year they JUST squeezed through but this year's entry has its own charm so will comfortably secure a place in the final at least with televote.

 

[Mannone]

I'm amazed at how many people are predicting Russia to fail... if they made it in 2010, then they will make it last year!

I know last year they JUST squeezed through but this year's entry has its own charm so will comfortably secure a place in the final at least with televote.

In my opinion this contest is about music, not about parody on music. I expect the juries to realize this, and I certainly hope most people will agree with me when it's actually time to vote. I want to trust in Europe, and when I decide to do that, I don't see Russia more than once.

 

[tooom]

In my opinion this contest is about music, not about parody on music.

If you ask me, most of the music in this contest is "parody on music". I still watch because I like the format of the competition, and every year there are some enjoyable numbers. For me, Russia is one of them this year. Also Russia in 2010 will not be lost and forgotten. If truly good music is what I want, ESC is not a good place to find it. In ESC I usually cheer for songs that put a smile on my face (and no facepalm), therefore Israel, Russia and Montenegro in Semi 1.

p.s. Don't worry. I don't care enough to vote .

 

[Mannone]

If you ask me, most of the music in this contest is "parody on music". I still watch because I like the format of the competition, and every year there are some enjoyable numbers. For me, Russia is one of them this year. Also Russia in 2010 will not be lost and forgotten. If truly good music is what I want, ESC is not a good place to find it. In ESC I usually cheer for songs that put a smile on my face (and no facepalm), therefore Israel, Russia and Montenegro in Semi 1.

I understand you, but I think it's wrong to underrate, or to reduce the value of ESC-music. I listen almost as much on these songs as on common "professional" music. I'm looking for a pleasant rhythm, and if I find it the genre really doesn't matter. There are at least a couple of really good songs in ESC every year, but they are always reduced just because they are in this competition. I really think one have a one-track mind if one can't find good music here. It doesn't have to be "produced" in a certain way to be good. Tons of gagas are worse than these songs, and so on.

Another thing is that the winner of Eurovision always has a great song. Most people doesn't want parody, because that is not what it's all about. There is a reason Ell and Nikki won last year, and that Homens da luta from Portugal did not win.

The sum is: people who can't find good music here have the wrong approach to music as such.

Edit: Well, of course there will always be funny entries in this contest, and they do have their place in it. But when it comes to Voting, that is not what I think one should call for. The american, or swedish, or whatever countrys Idol-television-contest also have entries that are entirely ploy. But you still vote for the best singer, right...

 

[EurovisionSmile]

I believe these countries will certainly qualify: Iceland, Greece, Russia, Israel, Denmark, Romania, Ireland

With possibilities, depending on the support they get from either juries or televote (or even both): Finland, Switzerland, Belgium, Latvia, Albania, Moldova, Cyprus and Hungary

No chance: San Marino, Montenegro, Austria

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Personally I'm thinking:

Certain Qualifiers


Quite likely


Maybe


No chance


I feel for the most part the qualifying positions are totally sewn up. Although there's 2 slots available for the maybes. I'm personally hoping Latvia can scrape through, it's a lovely song.

 

[Grinch]

Want

Think /