Quick analyzing when compared to previous years :
it seems that the show is split in four more or less equal parts which are
from 1 to 6, 7 to 12, 12 to 18/19 and 19/20 to 24(25)
in 2018 we had Austria in 5th (3rd) and Estonia in 6th (8th)
in 2019 we had Russia in 5th (3rd) and Denmark in 6th (12th)
in 2021 we had Russia in 5th (09th) and Malta in (07th)
This year it's Switzerland and France, so, Switzerland must have done very well and/or they expect France to do a top 10. I was skeptical about Norway being in 7th, so the actual pair could be France and Norway but I do think the real transition is after Switzerland due to the very different genres. Either Switzerland will gain from the comparison or France (I feel like Norway will look like too plastic and jokey afterwards)
Next we have 10-11-12 that granted us some winners (Netherlands in 12th in 2019/ Portugal in 11th in 2017/ Sweden in 10th in 2015) we could add Italy in 9th but I think the 4 songs being one after another will mostly hurt the earlier ones.
Either Ukraine is in good position to win (and it looks like it if we take into account the general opinion) or The Netherlands did surprisingly better in its semi. A top 5 is amongst them 100%
Germany performed in 11th to place 4th in 2018, Sweden performed in 9th to place 5th in 2019, Switzerland and Iceland performed back to back in 11 and 12 to place 3rd and 4th at the end.
Then we have around 18th place and for sure Iceland is not winning so let's see what is surrounding this place and don't forget we're in a 25 countries setup and not 26. We do have Greece but it seems a little bit early but Sweden comes in 20th and Moldova beforehand. Everything builds towards Moldova and I feel like Sweden is very nice for those who despise Moldova. They're set up both of them to do well. A top 10 is likely
Sweden in 2018 (20th) came 7th, Azerbaijan 2019 (20th) came 08th, in 2016, Finland (16th), Lithuania (18th), Ukraine (19th) and France (20th) all entered Top 10 with 2 top 5 placements.
then around the 24th place that gave us some winners as well (actually, 21 to 24 gave us winners, Israel 2018 in 22nd, Italy in 2021 in 24th) or Italy in 2019 that ended up second and performed in 22nd place. I will count out the two last spot (sorry Serbia) and the country that came just before Serbia is The United Kingdom. It looks a lot like 2019, I can see the UK placing 2nd at the end with a First half country taking it all. But the heavy hitters in that last part is the most weird to me I don't really know what to think about it, they could all be top 10 and I guess it'll be hard for all 4 of them to enter the top 10 imho.
Czech Republic