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3rd Semi-Final?

dizzydjc

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OK, bare with me...I've been doing some thinking theoretically...

So, let's say in 2013 there are 45 countries participating in Sweden, which is looking more and more likely I have to say. Now, this year there was a lot of hoo-ha about countries that maybe should have qualified but didn't (Netherlands, Slovenia, Austria, Switzerland & Finland to name but a few...) so I have come up with a theory.

3 semi-finals!

Now before you all start saying well that wouldn't work, because of money issues that the broadcasters would have to pay etc etc but when it comes down to it I think it could work and could work well.

It was announced in the EBU conference in Baku that they were looking at cutting down the number of rehearsals that they have each year, so what if they only needed one dress (jury) rehearsal and 2 x normal rehearsals for each act. Sufficient enough? I think so. The show rehearsal (minus the participants but maybe just the props) could be put into another rehearsal before the dress ones. You following so far? So anyway, let's say the Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday are the days of the semi finals. The jury rehearsal being on the day of the semi final itself also. Monday and Friday would be the show rehearsal for the props, presenters and interval acts etc for all semi finals and the final. The Saturday also having the jury rehearsal and final on the same day.

So that's that bit covered, now to the interesting part...

So, for instance sake there are 45 countries participating so we need to split them out. Imagining the Big 5 + host country stay in the final, that leaves 39. 39 / 3 = 13. Obviously some years there may be less countries, but as close to divided by 3 as can be anyway.

So, 13 countries in each semi final. Every country isn't obliged to broadcast every semi-final so only the countries that participate in each semi would be obliged to broadcast that semi. Also this applies to the Big 5 + host country that would be divided equally to each semi like they do at the moment.

From each semi, only a total of 6 can qualify. 6 X 3 = 18 plus the big 5 etc bringing it to 24. A nice number that doesn't let the final drag on too much (which I felt it did this year).

So how would this differentiate from the 2 semi finals that we have at the moment? Well, of course the countries would be split up fairly and equally from pots. What you will find though is the more semis that there are, less chance of neighbourly voting in a large amount of countries as these would hopefully be split up more and more. Take semi 2 from this year as example, a total of 5 ex-yu countries bundled into one semi. I don't want to get into an argument over politics etc but I think nobody can argue that there are cultural/neighbour votes going on here which I don't particularly have a problem with, until it knocks out other countries who are not part of these groups.

Also, it would mean more chances for different countries to qualify each year, without the fate of never qualifying in 8 years (spare a thought for the dutch). An example of this? Well, before 2008 there was no sign of Iceland qualifying, or Albania, Portugal, Belgium. You name it - having just the one semi final with all countries bundled together did not work at all, and I doubt even for a second that even if juries were included we would see much of a difference.

Anyway, something to think on of course. But i'm interested to hear your views on the matter. I personally think it would be a positive thing and would make things more exciting (for a die hard eurovision fan anyway) and more fair of course.
 

rajo

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Two semi-finals are sufficient, in my opinion. Three would be much more expensive, in my opinion.

But the allocation of participating countries has to be reconsidered. I would suggest that the countries which were more successful in passing the finals in the past, should all go into one semifinal, and the countries who did poorly should also go into one semifinal. This would balance the chances in the first place.

Serbia, Ukraine, Bosnia-Herzegovina always qualified, Netherlands, Austria, Belgium qualified only once so far, and San Marino, Slovakia never!
 

Yamarus

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A "chronic non-qualifiers" semi-final? Why not.

But you'd have to find 18 of them...

Belgium
Austria
Netherlands
San Marino
Latvia
Portugal
Slovakia
...
 

rajo

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We have to acknowledge that 9 out of 10 qualifiers from both semis were also among the top 10 favourites according to past attempts. Only Georgia and Israel failed on this record.

So, given the updated records from 2004 to 2012, I would suggest we allocate the semifinals for 2013 as follows:

Semifinal of successful countries


1Ukraine100,00%
2Bosnia and Herzegovina100,00%
3Serbia100,00%
4Greece100,00%
5Romania100,00%
6Russia100,00%
7Azerbaijan100,00%
8Turkey88,89%
9Moldova87,50%
10Armenia83,33%
11Georgia80,00%
12Norway77,78%
13FYR Macedonia77,78%
14Denmark77,78%
15Iceland66,67%
16Albania66,67%
17Hungary66,67%
18Ireland66,67%

Semifinal of chronic losers:


1Slovakia0,00%
2Montenegro0,00%
3San Marino0,00%
4Netherlands11,11%
5Poland11,11%
6Bulgaria12,50%
7Slovenia22,22%
8Belgium22,22%
9Belarus25,00%
10Croatia33,33%
11Estonia33,33%
12Switzerland33,33%
13Portugal37,50%
14Austria40,00%
15Latvia44,44%
16Finland44,44%
17Cyprus44,44%

Israel, Lithuania and Malta are tied with 55,56% each, so they have to be split 1 to 2 to fill the open positions in both semis.

It's also interesting to note, that Finland is the only country who already won under the new regulations. But there would be seven winning countries in Semi-1.
 

rajo

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I also would suggest that the Big 5 & host countries won't vote in the semifinals, because they also have certain voting routines which favours particular countries, e.g. UK, France, Germany give Turkey and Greece a welcome boost, Spain and Italy back Romania, Ukraine and Albania; and Sweden has a taste in its neighbours....
 

94ayd

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and Sweden has a taste in its neighbours....

This year it was definitely proven to be true... xrofl3

I wouldn't mind 3 semis for them being better balanced in terms of regions but 13 countries (and less) in one semi, seems way too few. The most-frequent-qualifiers and least-frequent-qualifiers semis sound more promising. :)
 

rajo

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Not with the televoting! So I took away the jury impact in 2008 and 2009
 

A-lister

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I think 3 semis would be too much, the last thing I want ESC to become is the mess MF or some other national selections with too many semis for its own good.
 

A-lister

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I also would suggest that the Big 5 & host countries won't vote in the semifinals, because they also have certain voting routines which favours particular countries, e.g. UK, France, Germany give Turkey and Greece a welcome boost, Spain and Italy back Romania, Ukraine and Albania; and Sweden has a taste in its neighbours....

Well, I think they should vote, but I'm surprised they're not also divided into the 'voting-pattern pots', which I think they should be. Now they are just randomly chosen to vote in either semi, but they should vote based on voting-patterns imo, just like the rest competes/votes according to that.
 

A-lister

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We have to acknowledge that 9 out of 10 qualifiers from both semis were also among the top 10 favourites according to past attempts. Only Georgia and Israel failed on this record.

So, given the updated records from 2004 to 2012, I would suggest we allocate the semifinals for 2013 as follows:

Semifinal of successful countries


1Ukraine100,00%
2Bosnia and Herzegovina100,00%
3Serbia100,00%
4Greece100,00%
5Romania100,00%
6Russia100,00%
7Azerbaijan88,89%
8Turkey87,50%
9Moldova83,33%
10Armenia80,00%
11Georgia80,00%
12Norway77,78%
13FYR Macedonia77,78%
14Denmark77,78%
15Iceland66,67%
16Albania66,67%
17Hungary66,67%
18Ireland66,67%

Semifinal of chronic losers:


1Slovakia0,00%
2Montenegro0,00%
3San Marino0,00%
4Netherlands11,11%
5Poland11,11%
6Bulgaria12,50%
7Slovenia22,22%
8Belgium22,22%
9Belarus25,00%
10Croatia33,33%
11Estonia33,33%
12Switzerland33,33%
13Portugal37,50%
14Austria40,00%
15Latvia44,44%
16Finland44,44%
17Cyprus44,44%

Israel, Lithuania and Malta are tied with 55,56% each, so they have to be split 1 to 2 to fill the open positions in both semis.

It's also interesting to note, that Finland is the only country who already won under the new regulations. But there would be seven winning countries in Semi-1.

I like this idea! It's probably a better solution than the current (I mean all ex-Yugo in one semi??? C'mon... it just shows that the current 'voting-pattern' system isn't really working.

They could make a new list like this every year though, so it won't be the exact same countries in the semis every year.
 

rajo

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I just fixed the list because of some flaws in it.

Sweden would have to go through the tough semi in 2014, because it has a 80% success rate so far for qualifying.

Other countries like Czech Republic, Monaco and Andorra, who all have a perfect 0%, would be in the other semi, if they decided to come back one day.

I think this suggestion is really fair to everybody, but still not perfect. The price of qualifying is that you land up in the tougher semi maybe, where your chances are zero then.

And Semi 1 might be too tough for those countries who do not always qualify, like Lithuania, Norway or Malta. But also for Turkey, because their diaspora mainly resides in the countries who do not so well in Eurovision.

@ A-Lister: This list has to be updated every year of course. :) I did it myself after the semis, but I also have to say that I got 9 out of 10 quallifiers right this year because of these statistics. I even got Malta right!
 

AdelAdel

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In my opinion, the semi-final thing isn't working like it should, the previous system (before 2004) was great, because each country was sure to take part at least every 2 years and now we have, for example, Netherlands not qualifying since then.
 

rajo

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Good point, AdelAdel, but this system wouldn't work anymore. We're having too many countries right now in Eurovision, so every country can participate only every 2 years, because there is no place in the other year.
 

AdelAdel

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So why not make like 35 countries in the final? When ESC began, there were about 10-12 countries, they increased it to 25 and stopped. 25-12=13. They added 13 slots, they could add 10 more.
 

rajo

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35 would be too much in my opinion. The show would be too long, at least 2 hours longer. And the countries in the first half would be easily forgotten until the voting starts. That would be tiresome.
 

AdelAdel

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I figured out you'd bring the length problem. I'd like to remind you that the show had been lenghtened by almost 2 hours since 1960s.
 

FilipFromSweden

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3 semis are to much, even for a hardcore fan like me :(
Have you guys thought of that a semifinal since 2008 has never had more then 19 songs in it.. It feels like its the limit ^^ 20 and over = final. But 20 in one semi would be funny, just that soon we are up in numbers like 2007
 

rajo

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I figured out you'd bring the length problem. I'd like to remind you that the show had been lenghtened by almost 2 hours since 1960s.


Yes, and I am fine with 3 hours. I don't want 5!

So, Baku would have seen at 5 AM in the morning....
 
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