2011 all over again?

[Mlyn]

This year is shaping up to become a lukewarm re-run of the 2011 ESC. The similarities look striking.

First the winners: both of them happen to come from German speaking countries and were extremely overwhelmed by their victory and enthused literally everyone else. There were no other victories like these in between them. Germany's victory was reason enough for Austria to return, like Austria's victory motivated Czech Republic to a comeback.

Then the Eurovision line-up:

2011 and 2015 are both quality song contests, most songs are qualitywise really strong. On the downside there is no clear favourite and 4 years ago the 12 points went all over the scoreboard, with the winner having received less 12's than Bosnia-Herzegovina.

So a country with a mediocre song and strong allies can pull it out: Azerbaijan.

Yet again Italy has a strong entry which just might fall short of winning and Sweden has a shitty pop song that everybody hates but makes a Top 3 finish.

Slovenia has a song that everyone loves: No One vs. Here For You, but will just finish outside top 10. Same is true for Estonia, everyone loves it, but in the final it remains inconspicuous and flops. Russia will get one of its worst results ranking around 20th place.

Norway looks bound for a shock exit in the semifinals yet again and the host country might just get enough points to sneak in the Top 10.

Romania looks like Bosnia to me, a beautiful sentimal ballad that might get the most 12's but not win.

The interval act is going to be percussions, so it couldn't be anymore clearer.

What y'all think? Who's hating me now?

 

[GRE]

I am not.
But i disagree with you.
I think this year is a combination of 2010 & 2012.
2010 because at the top 10 will be mostly mid or up tempo songs (not many ballads like last year).
And 2012 because the winner will be Sweden with a great show and up tempo song,
also there will be a sympathy vote like Russia then, now its going to be Finland.

 

[doctormalisimo]

Whatever you're smoking, I want some

 

[EscGeek]

interesting....i can't argue with what you wrote

 

[Mlyn]

Whatever you're smoking, I want some

Is not smoking no option for you?

 

[Carrie]

2015 has the emotion duo of 2011.

 

[sigi]

The interval act is going to be percussions, so it couldn't be anymore clearer.

.....


Jan Delay

 

[MrJadeEwen]

You wrote there was no clear favourite in 2011, but the bookies had France down as the obvious winner and so did a lot of people here.

 

[Dante]

For me, in feeling, is closer to 2014, the only difference is that it lacks the main surprise and the interesting winner, but as for the rest...still songs that I mostly don't care about, songs that I cannot remember, that do not stand out and are not able to reach me. But I can see what you're saying, and yes, in a way it's closer to 2011. I hope it's not the same with the winner, I think Azerbaijan was the weakest winner of the last decade.

 

[Fluke]

Agree about Sweden and Estonia especially. Azerbaijan or Italy might win. Israel and Serbia might do really well, possibly Armenia too.

 

[ParadiseES]

I have 2011 vibes because there isn't a clear favourite at the moment. I disagree with the rest.

 

[ShoeFlo]

2011 and 2015 are both quality song contests, most songs are qualitywise really strong

That's very subjective... for me 2011 was mediocre, whereas this year the quality is pretty bad. Right now I don't even have a favorite song (fair enough, I didn't listen to all of them)
Apart of that point, there are some interesting parallels but it absolutely didn't come into my mind to compare these ESC versions

Well, here is another resamblance: The German singers Ann-Sophie and Lena are similar somehow (The songs not though)

 

[FilipFromSweden]

Sweden has a shitty pop song that everybody hates

Uh .. no? It has 113 , 34 and 24 for the moment in the official thread. It got 122 out of 132 international jury points and got 35.1% of televotes. That is 545 601 votes and the only one who has ever gotten more is Loreen. It got huge positive feedback in the Eurovision Song Contest Facebook page and has the lowest odds right now for a reason, because people like it.

Your thread seemed great until I read that. Not saying we are going to win, but '' that everybody hates '' .. come on

 

[RainyWoods]

2011 and 2015 are both quality song contests, most songs are qualitywise really strong.

Quality doesn't always equate to good or enjoyable (and i'd also argue on the supposed quality of this years songs as well). In fact, overly polished songs lose charm and heart. It's probably a big reason why i'm not feeling 2015. It's all just radio friendly, generic nothingness. 2015 does however remind me very much of 2011. It was a really bad year for me where I was forcing myself to get excited for Feel the bloody Passion. Gosh, I mean I liked the song but it was crazy thinking about it. Not a very strong year.

So a country with a mediocre song and strong allies can pull it out: Azerbaijan.

I worry for this happening. My biggest fear actually is a Russian win (so I don't agree with your Russia coming around 20th prediction also). They came 5th in 2013 with a near identical song, and this time it's sung by a very popular artist.

Sweden has a shitty pop song that everybody hates but makes a Top 3 finish.

By everyone, you mean about 10% of people? It has a small amount of passionate detractors, but overall it's incredibly popular among fans.

Slovenia has a song that everyone loves: No One vs. Here For You, but will just finish outside top 10.

I agree with you here. Sadly I envision this happening too.

Norway looks bound for a shock exit in the semifinals yet again

Yes please

Romania looks like Bosnia to me, a beautiful sentimal ballad that might get the most 12's but not win.

No, I think Romania could likely miss the final this year for the first time. Their pop-rock ballad sung in poor english is just going to blend into everything else.

 

[12Points]

This year's Italy is 2011's France

 

[Haverdge]

Songwise, there is no clear winner. A lot of it will come down to stage show and running order. These two factors together can influence a song's results more than the actual song itself.

The only difference is, this year, we can point to the producers for bad draws for certain whereas before, it was a total twist of fate.

 

[Luki]

Comparing Love In Rewind to Can't-remember-the-title-because-it's-so-bland that is Romania is not acceptable. :'D

 

[Joyride]

I agree. I won't say there are lots of mediocre songs this year. I'd rather say there are plenty of good songs this year so making a choice is hard. In the end, not music will be the decisive factor this year but outstanding effects and diaspora.

So, it is not so unlikely Azerbaijan will win again. It is justified I think because Azerbaijan has a modern romantic pop song that appeals to both Western and Eastern Europe all the same.

But, I think Sweden will win in the end because it has the "Popular" factor but with the difference there are no similar songs this year and it's rather outstanding. Eric Saade would have probably won in 2011 if there hadn't been too many favourites with catchy songs... Jedward, Getter Jaani, Blue, Alex from Russia...

I'd also keep Russia in mind. It is a lovely song, appealing to many and strong diaspora, too. Like AZE 2011. Apart from Azerbaijan or Sweden, Russia is my third probable winner, though it's not one of MY personal favourites.

 

[GermanBango]

TBH I fear that we may see winning. If Europe (and Australia) isn't able to agree on a winner a country with a lot of "friends" could be the one that has the most points in the end (see 2011). I heard Polina is really a star in the former Soviet countries and the song is very mainstream.... so who knows? :?

 

[Terence]

I agree on some points.
No clear winner - all sings point to Russia for me.
A popera song is hyped up and flops - France 2011 vs Italy 2015
Sweden will be top 3.
There will be a shock failure in the semi's (could be Greece but I won't bet on it)