Let’s predict who wins Pabandom iš Naujo tonight! (using stats)

Tonight is the night that we have all been waiting for. After 6 gruelling and tiring weeks of competition we will finally know who will be the Lithuanian representative in Eurovision. Wouldn’t it be fun to take a look at all the statistics to see if we could predict the end-results? (Warning! I may have gone a little insane here!)

Firstly, let’s take a look at how our predictions from last week went. Basically we were quite confident in the first 3 artists and songs qualifying. We have had a wrong order in that Monika Marija beat out Moniqué, but it was a tie that we predicted. Meandi got the predicted third spot and then it was going to be tight. Our pick ended up getting 6th, and the Backs ended up claiming the spot who we predicted to be in 6th. Close enough I would say, we established a predicted 6,5/8 songs which is a good result in my book. That is about a score of 81%, so this coming prediction will be certain for 81% too I guess!

For this final predicition wer will have to go a few steps further. This will basically be an article where we see a Eurovision addict editor combine his love for statistics and slowly goes insane. Let’s do a few predictions in a few different scenario’s and in the end we will draw a conclusion. Let’s start off easy: We will just look at what jury points and amount of televotes an act will get by grabbing their results in both shows and dividing it by 2! Sounds easy right? They are in order of running order!

1 Aistė Pilvelytė – Unbreakable : 46/56 = 51(8) | 1692/2521 = 2106,5(10)
2 Rūta Loop – We Came From The Sun : 45/35 = 40(5) | 523/1224 = 873,5(5)
3 KaYra – Alligator : 33/34 = 33,5(4) | 1240/2080 = 1660(7)
4 Monika Marija – If I Leave : 54/56 = 55(10) | 1006/1652 = 1329(6)
5 Meandi – DRIP : 46/40 = 43(6) | 461/486 = 473,5(3)
6 THE ROOP – On Fire : 54/45 = 49,5(7) | 2175/5192 = 3683,5(12)
7 The Backs – Fully : 12/28 = 20(3) | 757/606 = 681,5(4)
8 Moniqué – Make Me Human : 60/54 = 58(12) | 851/2618 = 1734,5(8)

The Bold numbers are the averages of the 2 heats they competed in. As established before, there is a difference between how strong a show is or how many people vote in total. We have also seen that somehow this figure is often very accurate. In this scenario the top 3 would be 1. Moniqué(20) 2. THE ROOP(19) 3. Aisté(18). As you can see, it would be a very close race. Oddly, the only winner of the heats and the semi, Monika Marija(16) would only come in fourth place. 5th KaYra(11), 6th Ruta(10), 7th Meandi(9), 8th Backs(7). Scenario 1 is complete!

A more interesting aproach would be to base their predicted amount of jury and televote points based on how much their reults in the semi-final increased to their Heats results. The increase or decrease in percentages will be calculated through on their semi-final results to get an accurate idea of what they would score in the final. We will round up or down to whole numbers.  There may be an instance where an act goes above 60 jury points, which would not be fully realistic, but let’s take a look at this anyways!

1 Aistė Pilvelytė : Jury – 121,74% = 68(12) | Tele – 148,99% = 3756(8)
2 Rūta Loop : Jury – 77,78% = 27(3) | Tele – 234,03% = 2865(6)
3 KaYra : Jury – 103,03% = 35(5) |  Tele – 167,74% = 3489(7)
4 Monika Marija : Jury – 103,7% = 58(8) | Tele – 164,21% = 2713(5)
5 Meandi : Jury – 86,96% = 35(5) | Tele – 105,42% = 512(4)
6 THE ROOP : Jury – 83,33% = 37(6) | Tele – 238,71% = 12.394(12)
7 The Backs : Jury – 233,33% = 65(10) | Tele – 80,05% = 485(3)
8 Moniqué : Jury – 90% = 49(7) | Tele – 307,63% = 8054(10)

I feel like this system will be more accurate for the televote part of things results-wise. I don’t think The numbers will be this high in total, but I feel like it is a great measurement of who the people like or grown to like the most. The top 3 in this scenario would be: 1. Aisté(20) 2. THE ROOP(18) 3. Moniqué(17) Interestingly, the top 3 stays the same, just in a different order. After the top 3 the results are as follows: 4th Backs(13), 5th Monika Marija(13), 6th KaYra(12), 7th Meandi(9), Ruta(9). I must put a disclaimer that these Jury points are highhly unlikely. The Backs did have a massive increase, but that is because they came from the most competitive heat into the “weaker” of the 2 semi’s. It is highly unlikely that they would go from 12 to 60 in the duration of all the shows. Scenario 2 completed!

Scenario 3 is dangerous, it is a whole lot less with numbers, but we will try to create a chain with what song has beaten what other song. This would lead to a ranking. We will again seperate Jury and Televote. The most interesting thing is that THE ROOP beat Aisté in their heat, but then it went the other way around in the semi’s with the Jury’s. The Roop had slightly changed their staging/outfits and the difference for them is 9 points between both shows and Aisté’s difference is 10. I can cautiously say that therefore The Roop will most likely beat Aisté if they were to change back to their original staging. This prediction is about numbers though, so Aisté beats The Roop! Moniqué beat Ruta in the heats and Ruta beat KaYra in the semi’s. Monika Marija beat Moniqué and Meandi. The Backs got smashed in heat 3! When taking the gaps between acts in the heats and semi’s(F.E. Ruta  being 15 points behind Moniqué vs Meandi being 14 behind her) and compare them you can come up with this ranking:

1 Aistė Pilvelytė (12) | (7)
2 Monika Marija (10) | (8)
3 Moniqué (8) | (10)
4 THE ROOP (7) | (12)
5 Meandi (6) | (3)
6 Ruta Loop (5) | (5)
7 KaYra (4) | (6)
8 The Backs (3) | (4)

Firstly, Aisté wins the jury’s because she beat Baltos Varnos by a bigger amount than Monika Marija. Moniqué beats The Roop because she had a bigger gap to Ruta. The Televote took a bit more calculating. We needed to calculate the average increase of televotes from the heats to the semi’s divided by the amount of competing songs. Then we needed to take a look what semi had more votes, it turned out to be a 15/7 split in favour of semi 1. I use the percentages because we need to look at the reults comparitively, I then took averages of both percentages and looked at who beat who. This calculation is quite long (about 1,5 pages) so I won’t bore you with that, but trust me that the endreults are correct. (You can say that I have gone insane by this point)

The results of this compartively (%) method gives the ofllowing top 3: 1. Aisté(19) 2. The Roop(19) 3. Monika Marija (18) 4. Moniqué (18) This system is by far the closest, but also the most speculative. Interesting to note is that The Roop is a massive Televotebomb, but stays relatively the same %-wise. Moniqué sky-rockets with around 16% to a massive 39% of the votes. The rest of the results would be: 5th Ruta (10), 6th KaYra (10), Meandi (9), The Backs (7). Enough numbers, time for our final predicition!

I feel like it is safe to say that it will be a battle between 4 artists. The Backs will most likely fight with Meandi for 7th, the latter I predict to take it. Then KaYra and Ruta will fight for 5th. Unlike the semi, I and the system predict KaYra to come in 5th ahead of Ruta. Then on to our top 4 and what our beautiful machine will predict:

4. Aisté Pivelyté – Unbreakable.(7/7) A shaky prediction since she was the winner in the last 2 scenario’s. Like I mentioned in the last one, The Roop beat her in the heats with the jury-points. This could be because of running order orbecause The Roop changed his outfit that made the staging less popping. If I were The Roop and look at these numbers, I would return to what he did in the Heats. This hurts Aisté in the Jury-points and in both her winning scenario’s she relied heavily on that.

3. Monika Marija – If I leave.(10/8) The maddest about this prediction is that Monika won both her heat and the semi-final. Without the statistics, people could predict her to take the win easily since she is the only act to achieve this. In reality, the numbers aren’t all sunshine for her. She narrowly beat Moniqué in the jury’s, but got smashed in the televote. Only in the final scenario she sneaks into the top 3, so maybe she should be happy that I put her in third over Aisté. I think the fight will be close in the top, but Monika should be coming in third.

2. THE ROOP – On Fire (8/12) I have been going back and forth between Moniqué and THE ROOP for the last 2 hours. The biggest wildcard about this selection that undo’s this entire prediction machine is that THE ROOP changed their look and probably therefore got a lower score than Aisté. This could end up winning both jury and the Televote, but also Monika Marija could end up with the 12 points in the jury-vote. That would complicate everything since I am still not fully sure what the tie-breaker is. People tell me the jury will be the deciding factor, but I can imagine it being the act that deviates the least between jury and televote. Anyways, I base the 10 points on the fact that they will go back to their original staging. In all the other scenario’s this got 2nd place as well.

1. Moniqué – Make Me Human (12/10) Like I said, Monika Marija could end up winning the Jury and may as well be doing that. I feel like the jury-system in scenario 1 will be the most accurate in which Moniqué ends up taking the win. The system in scenario 2 for the Televote seems more accurat in terms of rankings. The Roop is head and shoulders above everyone else with the Televote, but Moniqué had a massive increase in % with her televote that would beat The Roop 1vs1. However this was proven less accurate in the previous 2 predictions. Moniqué will win with the jury’s (she is the only act with a 60 points score as well.) and therefore takes the overall victory!

This prediction is 81,2% likely to be true based off the previous 2 results. Thank #YOU for following me on my journey of slowly turning insane!

What do #YOU think about these predictions? Will this be comparable to what really happens or will somebody else win tonight? Share your thoughts with us on our forum HERE or join the discussion below and on social media!

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