Bulgaria, Switzerland or Malta.
To be more precise, if I had to think intensely about it:
3rd place Switzerland - it’s too similar to Arcade in style of composition/genre plus different things are hard to grab for the audience, like language, meaning of the lyrics, very high male voices are not for everyone. Still a high quality song that will gain a lot of votes.
2nd place Malta - it’s the most harmless, radio friendly, contemporary song in the bunch of the faster tracks. To stick with comparisons, it’s like Switzerland 2019. High up in the ranking but in the end too generic to win. Bonus points for being from Malta and her voice/age relation.
1st place Bulgaria - because, apart from the song, bonus points for coming from an inoffensive country so safe to choose for both Western and Eastern juries, it has never won the contest, televotes gained because of Billie Eilish comparisons, it’s the Salvador Dobral 2017 just female. Dreamy staging, dreamy song, sweet dreamy girl... hello Ireland 1970. All kinds of everything in this song reminds me of you!
Lithuania and Iceland would not win. Iceland is too special and Lithuania is a contender for the ungrateful 4th place. It’s too sleek. Everyone loves it but it’s that kind of song you won’t vote for in the end because you give it all for your absolute fav!