I don't quite understand why anyone would think Russia won it. Dull song. I'll be interested to see whether Russia is trying to manipulate Eurovision like it has tried to control the Olympics. Perhaps Russia needs to take a break.
They (Putin) do seem to be obsessed with events and winning. They have thrown tons of money at Formula 1, as well, building a track around the Sochii Olympic Park and sponsoring Russian drivers. They're hosting the World Cup in 2018, which undoubtedly given to them because of sketchy bribes.
They do normally have a song of high quality and bring something different to the table, whether it be Grannies singing Party for Everybody or the twins. But it does seem like they're trying their hardest to get it back to Russia and losing some creativity because of that. Last year it was obviously Polina with a very stereotypical Eurovision ballad, just after Conchita won the year before. This year we've got Sergey, and again, the song is pretty good and deserves top 5/10. But it has everything Mans did last year, from the good looking guy to the effects.
I'm kinda just waiting for someone to show something different or that bit of eccentricity. In 2015 it was Mans with the awesome staging and effects, in 2014 it was Conchita who's image obviously helped and was inspiring... I don't think we're going to get that this year, as it is a very radio friendly year and a lot of the songs do sound similar - particularly the ones that are going to be in the final, and sadly, I think Russia will win. It won't be a runaway winner, but it has the generic appeal and enough interest to pick up a lot of higher points.
I think Cyprus could be a dark horse given the nature of the tournament this year, though, it is very different to the rest.