Who will qualify for the final? (Predictions)

[Judas]

2025 semi qualifiers prediction thread. I am curious to see what y'all think.

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

Thanks for setting this up.

Here's my prediction for SF1:
Q: Sweden, Ukraine, Poland, Netherlands, Albania, Belgium, Norway, Portugal, San Marino, Estonia.
NQ: Croatia, Azerbaijan, Iceland, Slovenia.

No info on Cyprus yet so assuming NQ for now as i have 10 Qs above. But if it's good, I would move one of Norway or Belgium to NQs

 

[SpiritofKeiino]

SF2 feels tricky to call.
I'm going with:
Q: Austria, Greece, Latvia, Luxembourg, Czechia, Israel, Malta, Finland, Lithuania, Ireland.
NQ: Montenegro, Serbia, Armenia, Denmark, Australia.

I don't feel very confident about Ireland qualifying, I could see Denmark or Australia edging in above them.

No info on Georgia yet, for now I assume NQ as my 10 Q slots are filled.

 

[gigi_copp3]

SF1

LOCKOUTS:
SAFE:
BORDERLINE:
OUT:
UNKNOWN:

SF2

LOCKOUTS:
SAFE:
BORDERLINE:
OUT:
WILL THEY COMPETE?:

SF2 seems really open

 

[Sabrewulf238]

My prediction for semi final 1:

Qs:
Borderline: (If I have to pick two I think maybe Norway and either Cyprus or Azerbaijan will make it)
NQs:

Put Cyprus in borderline just because we know nothing about it right now.

I'm putting San Marino as a qualifier in the belief that they'll sort their staging out for May.

Iceland to me feels like it'll be the big loser in the fun wars.

 

[Sabrewulf238]

Predictions for semi final 2:

Qs:
Borderline: (This honestly feels like a crapshoot to me, only one I think is in a stronger position is Malta, the remaining two qualifiers could go any which way)
NQs:

I think Greece is very dependant on if they can sort out their staging for May. I do feel like this song could end up being more borderline than people realize.

I would have put Malta as a Q but I think the recent blocking of their lyrics by the ebu has put that into question a bit. I still think it's the borderline with the strongest chance though.

Again, put Georgia in borderline since we don't know anything about it.

 

[Jupiter]

This year is insanely hard to predict IMO.

SF1:

SAFE:
PROBABLY IN:
BORDERLINE: (simply because we do not know it yet)
PROBABLY OUT:
NQ:

Quite a lot of "borderlines". If I'd have to decide now, I think the NQs will be: Iceland, Azerbaijan, Portugal, Croatia & San Marino.

SF2:

SAFE:
PROBABLY IN:
BORDERLINE:
PROBABLY OUT:
NQ:

This is even harder to predict lol Again, if I would have to decide now, I'd say Georgia, Armenia, Ireland, Montenegro, Malta and Serbia will stay behind.

 

[lavieenrose]

Okay let's get things started; I will be making multiple updates to this because 1) there are still some ?s and 2) I can't resist the sweet sweet allure of clout

Semi 1
After reading ESCUnited for 12 consecutive hours I feel like this is a crazy-ass dark horse pick to win the whole semi but actually the odds agree with me:
Safe: , , ,
I could see things going wrong but they're in a decent spot because the semi's so noncompetitive: ,
Absolutely nuts that the semi math here is making me say these are in because they really have "Borderline -" energy: , ,
Borderline -: , ,
Probably done: ,

Semi 2
My crazy-ass dark horse pick to win the whole semi:
Safe: ,
Probably safe but I've seen stranger things: , ,
Borderline +: , , ,
Borderline -: Nuclear hot take and it would make me very sad but ,
Probably out but this semi feels extremely wide-open and I reserve the right to change this as things crystalize: , ,
???????????? but the way they are at Eurovision means it’s probably fair to make the math not math on them getting a qualifier spot at least for now: