Who will be fighting for the victory in 2016?

[aardvark]

In 2015 the big fight for victory was between and , with coming out tops and winning the televote in the end.

In my opinion, the fight for victory this year will be between:
and

Maybe I can also consider the following with an outside chance:
and

What do you think? Who will be in the race to be the winner of Eurovision 2016?

 

[megzpegz]

I have no idea russia will definitely be up there I can see Sweden been up there to but don't think they will win.

 

[ParadiseES]

I'd put my bet on Latvia with Croatia as their biggest threat.

I think Russia will not win. They could suffer the same as Italy last year, but even more cause this year the level is muuuuch higher. So called professional juries putting the Russian entry in the top-10 would be a scandal.

Sweden? I can't even see them in the top-10.

Again, big-5 countries will have a tough time if the right songs qualify. Almost all of them will pass over Germany or Spain, and about the UK... I can see them last.

 

[megzpegz]

I think armenia could creep near the top as well.

 

[Cyberbliss]

It's a five deal between

 

[midnightsun]

Contenders:

Russia: Best chance to win but I am afraid it won't do too well with the juries. They will win if the televotes will go to many different songs).

Australia: Juries and televoters will love it equally. Russia will have more televotes though.

Croatia: People like songs like this... mystic, traditional. Good chances imho.

Hungary: will either be a flop or very high ranked. Juries may love this and people tend to reward songs with a strong message.

Germany: not unlikely imho. Stage and visuals are outstanding. People like crazy or extraordinary performances.

Potentially:

Cyprus: I'm thinking of manga 2010. If Cyprus' live performance is as stunning as theirs they will accomplish a good rank. Will get all the votes of those tired of mainstream pop (this year there won't be few of them with all the chart stuff songs)

Latvia: Don't think it is good enough for winning, but who knows... surprise winner? Hello 2011. It's quite special; people love this and love to supoort underdogs who aren't mainstream.

Czech Republic: Assuming it will make it to the final... people could reward a good, simple, strong ballad especially if she manages to sing it well/her voice is as good as in the studio version.

 

[DutchESC]

I think and

 

[GermanBango]

It's a bit too early to say but something tells me that it's going to be between &
will without a doubt reach the Top 5 but I just don't see it winning.

 

[Kairit]

Last year we had too many favourites... This year there's (in my opinion) no favourites besides Russia. Hmm... I just don't see anyone winning, if I'm honest. It will definetly come down to the performances and everything will become clearer then, I believe. Hungary definetly has a "winning" song though. I think could do it, finally. It just sounds like a song that has won Eurovision. It has a lot of views on YT too. The first time I heard it I was very impressed though I don't like it that much anymore, but it's instant, which is needed. ... Also shouldn't be forgotten, neither should .

 

[sapsan]

I think that , and :? somehow will be fighting for the victory. BUT , , , and :? somehow are dark horses here who could be very high or very low

 

[Alevender]

It will be another top5 result for but I don't see them winning the contest. I think we will have a surprise this year like in 2011. But some favourites are and maybe
Btw, have to say that it is more exciting when winner is unclear, not like in previous years when winner was announced in March.

 

[birthday]

Russia is a lock for top 5, but I don't see it winning, it seems a bit too dated and I doubt it'll get the jury points necessary. I don't think Sweden is doing the double, I think it'll be in 2013-ish results, maybe lower top 10. But who do I see winning then? No song is an outright winner a la Rybak or Loreen, it's a pretty open year. If I was to toss the trophy for a few countries to fight, I think it'd be Latvia, Iceland, Hungary and France. I am not gonna count Russia out though, and Australia doesn't seem like a far shot either. Anything could happen, which makes this year super exciting for me.

 

[Terence]

I think it's going to be vs.
And and and for the remaining top 5

Can't see other contenders tbh.

 

[blue00eyes]

I'll give an answer after semifinals. It's hard to say now. Let's wait and see who will mess up live and how will the final running order look like.

 

[popavapeur]

for the songs only :

These countries may hit the top 10 (no particular order) :

everything will depend on the staging, on this, Russia/France/Croatia/Cyprus can do well so it could be a top 4.
Latvia/Norway/Hungary can surprise us and sneak in the top 5.
Armenia/Azerbaidjan : Diaspora battle but they can achieve a top 5, a top 3 if they sing well + good staging.
Australia has a good chance for a top 5 too.

Now for the win : I see croatia at 3rd because Russia will have a stronger staging/ Cyprus a stronger energy and France has a stronger appeal for a wide audience. If Sergey sings well and dance well with a good staging it could be a strong contender. If Cyprus brings something else than just a rock band on stage too and France can do well only if there's a nice staging if it's bad it'll end in the top after 5th.

 

[Swedenvision]

I don´t think we (Sweden) will win, but at the same time i don´t think you exclude Sweden this year either.

Frans was NOT my favourite, but i guess it´s ok. And it is worth to know that Frans has already enter Spotify top 200 chart in almost every european country and is climbing. Of course this dosen´t mean he will win, but no other ESC-song has entered this charts.

But to be honest i don´t want to win this year, a 3rd place this year and then we can win next year.

 

[VikingTiger]

is obviously in it for the win. But so is . I am expecting great stagings and performances from the two countries.

has a good singer, the song is different than many of the other favourites; and thus will probably attract televoters; for sure the juries will like it.

In a year where there isn't a group of songs that cleary stand out being I guess it will matter even more standing out from the crowd: Barei might do. Frans might do, his song is also quite different from the rest. Cyprus?

 

[Chorizo]

So far it looks like 2011 and I think there are many potential winners and we might end up with an unpopular winner again.
I think until we have seen then semis, there won't be any clear favorite.

and are the favorites of the bookies now but I don't think they will win.

Russia will get lots of points from the ex-USSR and probably other eastern countries, like Serbia, but I don't think it will get major support in the west. Last year's song was dated and cheesy too but that works much better with ballads than with pop songs. If you are willing to ignore the political implications of last year's song, what many people apparently did, last year's song has sufficient appeal for both the juries and many people in the audience.

This year's song is dated trashy pop and therefore I don't think that it could garner that much support. Such a winner would be a huge setback for Eurovision and bring the contest back to 2008. In recent years, the quality has improved and we have actually had songs that were commercially successful and that sounded like music from real life. A winner that sounds like a Eurovision song from the trashy 2000s would be the worst that could happen to the contest, which strives to be a legitimate music contest instead of the freak show of the 2000s. Russia hosting would also be a severe problem for the contest, of course. The voters and the juries might ignore the latter problem but I think at least the western juries won't support this song due to its low quality.

There is still a chance it might win, in case the western vote is split between various countries while the east is only focused on this song but I don't see that happen either. The ex-Yugoslav countries will rather support each other and there are other contenders in the ex-USSR, like Latvia.

I don't think that the Swedish song will be a total flop because some people like this kind of music but I don't think the juries will be all over it and it doesn't have outstanding staging either.

There are many potential winners I can see for now, like .
Possibly even or someone else.

 

[tsegaye]

I would say , , , and at the moment... But it's so hard this year.

 

[Eurovisionified]

We will certainly have a minimalistic winner this year. Russia always score high, no matter what. Haven't heard their song yet, but it doesn't matter in this case. We can agree about one thing though - It's very open.