i love that eurovision is in constant evolution and i think all eras of eurovision are wonderful with their qualities and their flaws.
well, except the part when ireland could win by farting on stage (almost literally what happened in 1994 tbh). never forget.
They would've had to:
Beat Russia by 148 points
Beat Ukraine by 106 points
Beat Greece by 94 points
Beat Armenia by 75 points
Beat Norway by 58 points
Beat Serbia by 36 points
Beat Turkey by 14 points
Beat Azerbaijan by 8 points
Hold off everything below them
Azerbaijan is a write-off. I love "Day After Day" too but...come on. Turkey isn't particularly difficult either; sure, it's probably more jury-palatable presentation-wise than Turkey's other attempts at rock music, but 14 points isn't a tall order. Serbia's the first real challenge on the list. Don't like the song personally but her performance was pretty convincing, and the song is rather watered down. Still, if the juries really ended up liking Israel...I suppose possible. Norway on the surface would look to be the finisher, but the juries, at least these days, aren't really fond of vocal restraint, which that song kind of has. 58 points is hardly insurmountable. Armenia/Greece/Ukraine I feel the need to consider as a group. Ani Lorak's writhing I could see being a turn-off (how...ironic) for the juries, but if "Aphrodisiac" can come 3rd in a 2012 semi in a jury vote, "Secret Combination" and "Qele, Qele" might've had a shot at something. And 94 points is a lot of points. But let's go a little further into this fantasyland and assume they do get through Greece & Armenia. 148 points is a massive margin to defeat the televote winner. But it's happened, and for us to have made it this far, the jury would have to REALLY love "The Fire In Your Eyes," so..........
Basically, the scenario where Israel wins in 2008 involves:
1) A small pack of songs crushing everything else in the jury vote
2) That pack of songs not including Norway, Russia, Armenia, or Greece and rather being made up of some combination of Portugal, Georgia, even Denmark (Denmark came 11th with the juries in 2015 using the same schtick when just about everyone was getting real sick of their shit - imagine what would happen in a world where it had worn less thin by seven years) or *gulp* the UK
3) Israel staying competitive within that pack - Portugal & Georgia aren't that far behind
tl;dr It probably ain't happenin' outside a world where "The Fire in Your Eyes" is better received than it actually was.
Edited for an EGREGIOUS error; none of you saw me forget Dami Im's existence, right?
2017 ranking: 12 PT 10 SM 8 IT 7 EE 6 LT 5 CZ 4 FI 3 ME 2 AM 1 FR Also: NO/UK/IS/PL
"This is so Anglo-Saxon" -Krishoes
"Going good song far." -RainyWoods saying...something
"I don't get it. Is this supposed to be a joke comment? Or your way of trying trolling and bitch around in the thread? Either way you better step up in that game OR better yet (really), just be yourself and speak honestly about your true heart's desire regarding the topic at hand."
"Your thoughts are not my problem. My thoughts aren't yours..."
It's a shame that Russia is not participating, but that is the price for disrespecting the law of the host country. They should have chosen different artist in the first place.
Apart from that... Dima Bilan had quite a little fanbase around Europe at that time, so it didn't surprise me he won although IT SUCKED so much!!!
Belgium ♥ Azerbaijan ♥ Bulgaria ♥ Sweden ♥ Macedonia ♥ Norway ♥ Israel ♥ Iceland ♥ Serbia ♥ Moldova ♥ Australia
Thank you for your analysis though You're right, sometimes juries have gone for stuff no one would expect them to support, so it's difficult to say how much the outcome would have changed in 2008. I had almost forgotten "Aphrodisiac" was third in its semi back in 2012, the sadness of it all (And that comes from someone who actually enjoyed that song, but third place? no ma'am!)