Okay, now a little conspiracy theory:
These are the mostly called Favourites: Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Germany, San Marino, Ukraine, Austria, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Russia, Belarus, Italy, Israel, Georgia and Azerbaijan.
So: No win of a country that recently one: Then we have: Denmark, San Marino, Austria, United Kingdom, Netherlands, Belarus, Italy, Israel and Georgia (and IMO San Marino, Austria and Belarus don't have great winning chances)
In 2010 we had 39 countries competing, in 2013 we have 39 countries competing
In 2010 the host country was a nordic one, in 2013 the host country is a nordic one.
So: In 2010 One of the Big 5 One, this time.... Maybe again. So Italy or United Kingdom could be possible winners.