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View Full Version : Why there might be a runaway winner this year to match or beat Rybak's record



FallenAngelII
16th May 2012, 11:00
The hype is rising, the odds are getting low. According to all sources, Sweden's gonna win. Now, according to some sources (like, for instance, the OGAE voting), Sweden's gonna win by a very large margin, possibly toppling that of Rybak's recordsetting win in 2009.

Now, some people object to that, claiming that the quality of the rest of the entries isn't that low. But it got me thinking and I believe the fact that the rest of the entries aren't all too shabby is the reason why Sweden presumably will win by a huge margin.

In a year when there are a few clear gems and lots of trash, the high marks go the gems, which means that quite a few songs will be close-ish to the winner in points due to the gems sharing the high marks. This year, however, most people agree that Sweden's got an exceptional entry that save for a disastrous live performance is poised to win. Many also agree on that Sweden's entry is a notch above the others.

However, what if there are quite a few good entries year this, just few or none of the same caliber as Sweden's? Bear with me for a second. Imagine for a second a scenario where Sweden receives 12 points from all "Western" countries and at least 7-10 points from all "Eastern" countries. That's pretty much what happen with Rybak in 2009. However, Iceland also received a whole lot of points with Azerbaijan picking up the rest of the high marks. 4th placer Turkey was 30 points behind Azerbaijan.

However, let's continue to play my version of Fantasy Eurovision 2012. Here are some likely candidates to get high-ish marks in my opinion:
* Italy - Likely a jury favourite.
* Spain - Possibly a jury favourite.
* Iceland - Jury favourite, only viable etno song in the contest this year.
* Greece - Greece always does well and this is the kind of pop Greece excels at in Eurovision.
* Cyprus - For once, I won't win Greece giving Cyprus 12 points.
* Romania - If they pull it off live, it'll be a crowd pleaser.
* Ukraine - Pre-mature football anthem. She can sing live, so she won't be another Stella Mwangi. France got 12th place in 2010 with a football anthem in French. Gaitana's anthem is in English.
* Russia - I hope it crashes and burns, but people seem to think it'll do well.
* Waterline - Never underestimate the tween vote. If Tooji doesn't make the final, all of the Tooji votes will spill over to Jedward.
* Serbia - Balkan ballad? There's always one of those who does (at least nominally) well.
* Estonia - Another jury favourite

Now, imagine all of those countries vying for 2nd place, netting 8-10'ers (and some 12:ers) here and there. Sweden ends up with a score of 240-300, while the others end up around the 100 marks because none of them really pulls ahead of the pack. Winning by a huge margin isn't always a question of your entry being so much better than the other entries, it's more of a question of there being a lot of competition for 2nd place.

It is for this reason that I believe that a win by a huge margin is possible.

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 11:42
I wonder why you created this thread :rolleyes:

In any case, I dont believe there will be anybody beating Alexander Rybak any time soon, and certainly not even coming close this year. None of the songs have all the qualities of Alexander and Fairytale, and the "front-runners" - namely Sweden, Italy, United Kingdom, Russia, Serbia, Iceland and Norway - all will appeal to very different audiences, I dont believe any of them have the universal appeal of Norway 09.

LakZaNokte
16th May 2012, 11:50
Italy wins by a margin.
0 chance for a runaway winner.

rajo
16th May 2012, 12:08
I think it's very superlicious for a Swede to make this a topic. Even the French were cooler last year, when everybody told them they were favourites.

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 12:12
I think it's very superlicious for a Swede to make this a topic. Even the French were cooler last year, when everybody told them they were favourites.
xyeah

Some people like the sound of their voice :')

FallenAngelII
16th May 2012, 12:18
I think it's very superlicious for a Swede to make this a topic. Even the French were cooler last year, when everybody told them they were favourites.
Their singer couldn't deliver live. Ours can (unless she's ill). Also, if you look at my posting history, I often actively campaign against the Swedish entry. This is actually the first and only Swedish entry I've believed to stand a chance at winning in all of my 12 years of watching Eurovision (I've been watching the contest since 2000) and the 1st entry I've actively campaigned for to win. Also, the people who said France would win last year were all fans on this board (and some betting people for some reason). Opera sung in Corsican isn't exactly the most accessible of music genres. Club/dance/electric music sung in English is.

Even last year, when we eventually came in 3rd, I actively campaigned against the song and expressed outrage and disappointment it got 3rd. (Entries I've actively campaigned against: 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2011).

So don't come here and complain about a Swede making a thread to support a Swedish entry. I am one of Sweden's harshest critics on this board. It's just that in my opinion, this year we sent a spectacular entry. It's like Germany 2010 all over again, wholly modern and different, quirky female vocalist. I supported Germany back then (though less so after her poor live performance) and I support Sweden this year.

BTW, the word "superlicious" isn't actually a word. It's some kind of ghetto slang that I don't think means what you think it means (it's a complimentary and positive adjective. Are you calling me "perfect in every way"?). Don't use "big words" if you don't know what they mean or can even spell them.

rajo
16th May 2012, 12:19
I really feel this could win, but not with huge margins. Rybak had a very enjoyable song for everyone to like. Loreen comes up with Techno and darkness..... this is not everybody's darling and not enough to break certain "friendly" voting routines.

rajo
16th May 2012, 12:20
Your singer couldn't deliver live.


Who's my singer again? It was Nadine Beiler last year, and yeah, she nailed it..... should have been a runaway winner imho.

FallenAngelII
16th May 2012, 12:21
Who's my singer again? It was Nadine Beiler last year, and yeah, she nailed it..... should have been a runaway winner imho.
Fine, "their" singer. I was talking about France's singer last year.


I really feel this could win, but not with huge margins. Rybak had a very enjoyable song for everyone to like. Loreen comes up with Techno and darkness..... this is not everybody's darling and not enough to break certain "friendly" voting routines.
The 1st rehearsal shows us that there's going to more lighting, much less darkness and we know from interviews that there is going to be more background dancers on-stage.

rajo
16th May 2012, 12:23
BTW, the word "superlicious" isn't actually a word. It's some kind of ghetto slang that I don't think means what you think it means (it's a complimentary and positive adjective. Are you calling me "perfect in every way"?). Don't use "big words" if you don't know what they mean or can even spell them.


I'm sorry for messing with the letters. Of course I mean "supercilious".

Maybe I was distracted by our booty song and had the word "bootylicious" in mind :D
Happy now? :)
I pohe so, nad evah a cine yad!

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 12:25
What's doing my head in is that it seems like Swedes in support of Loreen are creating circumstances where they can here other people bang on about how amazing their own song is, this thread being an example despite the fact it covers the direct mentioning of Sweden in the title - that's what this is clearly for! I, and many other people, dont like this sort of thing.

rajo
16th May 2012, 12:25
Fine, "their" singer. I was talking about France's singer last year.

Okay then, I guess, English lessons are over now.... lunch time :)



The 1st rehearsal shows us that there's going to more lighting, much less darkness and we know from interviews that there is going to be more background dancers on-stage.


This song still doesn't arouse joy-joy feelings overall like Norway and Germany used to in their winning years ;)

FallenAngelII
16th May 2012, 12:33
This song still doesn't arouse joy-joy feelings overall like Norway and Germany used to in their winning years ;)
Norway and Germany aroused feelings of "joy-joy"? What does that even mean? Germany was pure pop, this is electronic dance pop (Madonna vs. Lady Gaga) (with Rybak representing etno pop). I don't see much of a difference except for the genre change here.


What's doing my head in is that it seems like Swedes in support of Loreen are creating circumstances where they can here other people bang on about how amazing their own song is, this thread being an example despite the fact it covers the direct mentioning of Sweden in the title - that's what this is clearly for! I, and many other people, dont like this sort of thing.
Why are you posting so much in this thread when you clearly have no desire to write even a single on-topic post? Take your bitter resentment elsewhere.

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 12:37
Why are you posting so much in this thread when you clearly have no desire to write even a single on-topic post? Take your bitter resentment elsewhere.
Well you cant really avoid it can you, slightly "in your face", so to speak. And I posted my opinion on the matter on the first page.

FallenAngelII
16th May 2012, 12:40
Well you cant really avoid it can you, slightly "in your face", so to speak. And I posted my opinion on the matter on the first page.
And then two posts just to insult and annoy me. Either stick to the topic or stop posting. Nobody's forcing to you even read this thread.

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 12:47
And then two posts just to insult and annoy me. Either stick to the topic or stop posting. Nobody's forcing to you even read this thread.
I've hardly insulted you, it is a factual observation!

FallenAngelII
16th May 2012, 12:55
I've hardly insulted you, it is a factual observation!
Stop posting in this thread unless you're going to post anything even remotely connected to the topic. Now.

LakZaNokte
16th May 2012, 13:05
u 2 just made my day xrofl2

papillon
16th May 2012, 13:12
i think that sweden will win this year but definitively not with a landslide and not because its the best song. personally i like her voice and her song is catchy at parts but its ridiculous to even compare it with fairytale. from the first time i listened to rybak's song i knew this would win. it had everything. it was a european song, it spoke to everyone and so did he. as for loreen she and her song do not appeal to everyone. whole families watch the eurovision and unless a song can be liked by 3 generations, no one is breaking rybak's record. certainly not loreen!

FilipFromSweden
16th May 2012, 13:15
IF it wins i think it will get points like when Germany won 2010. Not to much, but still a safe winner where the runner-up had lots of point to catch up. Or i think it will smash a record getting 400 points

rajo
16th May 2012, 13:19
Girls, calm down :)

Nobody should get hurt!

Terence
16th May 2012, 13:29
Normally before ESC, I hammer all entries to death till a point when my mum and my sister become familiar with the entries and do tell me 'that's a good song' or 'that's bad'. I remember Norway 2009/Germany 2010 getting a positive reaction whilst Sweden doesn't. (That's my two cents contribution to this thread to say that Sweden won't be the runaway winner)

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 13:33
Stop posting in this thread unless you're going to post anything even remotely connected to the topic. Now.
I am not a child to be told what to do!

Yamarus
16th May 2012, 13:59
I hope Sweden wins.

I hope it does not turn out to be a runaway winner.

Otherwise that hour of voting by 42 countries will be even more boring than in 2009 and 2010.

Mannone
16th May 2012, 14:04
I don't believe in a runaway victory, even if all the pre-statistics tells us we are gonna win this year. The problem for me is that I personally do not like Euphoria as much as I liked Fairytale, or even Satellite. I don't feel struck by lightning, which I did when I first heard the two mentioned winners. They gave me the feeling that nothing else than victory was possible. Euphoria does not give me that feeling, and I actually think that Euphoria is one of the most overrated favourites on beforehand in many years (probably since Perrellis Hero). Someone (a swede I guess) asked the question whether Sweden could be part of Big 5, and that is why Euphoria is overrated. Swedens interest and energy in this competition is far beyond any other countrys interest, and I think we underestimate the swedish impact on public opinion, on bookmakers, and so on.

I do think Euphoria have a chance of winning, as I find it a better song than Eric Saades Popular. But my point is, we should not take this victory for granted, rather than hoping for a runaway one. Don't forget Italy have a much better song (subjective) this year too, and they was not far from winning last year.

Franco
16th May 2012, 16:19
...
However, let's continue to play my version of Fantasy Eurovision 2012. Here are some likely candidates to get high-ish marks in my opinion:
...



Don't forget UK. I believe that either UK or Spain will get the most of juries' votes (with Spain probably getting more televotes than UK).
However, Since this is Sweden's year (all omens and polls say that, not just 2 or 3 of them), I hope Loreen will win with a not too big margin because a struggling battle is always funnier than a landslide victory.

Matt
16th May 2012, 17:49
One thing we need to take into consideration are the juries. I actuslly believe there are a lot of quality songs in the running this year. And even if Sweden wins the televote by a healthy margin I don't believe the juries will agree. So if Sweden wins I think it would be more of a satellite victory.

A-lister
16th May 2012, 17:56
The comparison with Rybak is partly wrong, because Rybak as the Russian speaker he is, took advantage of this background and promoted his Belarussian/Eastern/Slavic side heavily during ESC week, and Loreen doesn't have that "native appeal" to promote herself with and therefor I don't see her doing better than Rybak when it comes to the eastern region. Part of Rybak's success, as you mention in your post, is that he had a cross-over European appeal, partly thanks to his mixed background and country connection.

So even if she is a big pre-favorite like Rybak, he had much more going for him than she has.

She could win, but she won't win with the same margin as Rybak did.

doctormalisimo
16th May 2012, 18:00
I love these thread by Swedish fans about why Sweden is the best country in Europe and and why they should be in the big 5 and why they're going to win by a landslide. :lol:

EurovisionSmile
16th May 2012, 18:03
I think there is no chance of having a runaway winner this year. Too many good songs and I believe jury and televote will have different winners.

A-lister
16th May 2012, 18:04
One thing we need to take into consideration are the juries. I actuslly believe there are a lot of quality songs in the running this year. And even if Sweden wins the televote by a healthy margin I don't believe the juries will agree. So if Sweden wins I think it would be more of a satellite victory.

Yeah, we already know what the juries will prefer ;)

Italy/Spain/UK/Germany :)

Actually, I think they will make Italy win. Thy tried last year, but that song didn't have the same public appeal. If Italy wins the jury votes this year aswell, and also manage a top. 10 with the public (which is very possible), I think it all depends on what the juries will do with Sweden, if Sweden won't be top. 5 with juries (and of course winner/top. 3 with televotes), they will hinder Sweden from winning just like they hindered Sweden from a #2 last year.

So my guess is that the winner won't win by a large margin, and it could be either Italy or Sweden (if the juries are in a more contemporary mood).

But I don't take anything for granted, this year I genuinely think we deserve to win, but it all comes down to the juries I think.

Also, Russia might win the televotes actually, but I highly doubt the juries will support them though.

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 18:17
I love these thread by Swedish fans about why Sweden is the best country in Europe and and why they should be in the big 5 and why they're going to win by a landslide. :lol:
Exactly! It's become very tedious now! =\
At least the Azerbaijani fans knew where to stop when they were at it! :lol:

Grinch
16th May 2012, 18:33
None of the songs have all the qualities of Alexander and Fairytale, and the "front-runners" - namely Sweden, Italy, United Kingdom, Russia, Serbia, Iceland and Norway - all will appeal to very different audiences, I dont believe any of them have the universal appeal of Norway 09.

This.

Sean
16th May 2012, 18:45
I don't see a landslide. While I accept it's perfectly possible for Sweden to win, it's not as universal as Fairytale was, as MHIY has already said. The rehearsal wasn't particularly strong either which makes me doubt its capabilities as a runaway.

It's between Iceland, Russia and Sweden this year, I think. I wouldn't underestimate the general public as they're likely to vote for Russia en masse, much more than they would for Sweden. We have no idea how the general casual viewer will judge the songs so we'll see next weekend...

Mannone
16th May 2012, 19:06
I love these thread by Swedish fans about why Sweden is the best country in Europe and and why they should be in the big 5 and why they're going to win by a landslide. :lol:

"Swedish fans". I'm pretty sure you talk about 2-3 members on here who start these threads. I can understand you, but on the other half almost every topic is interesting:

Swedish imperialism? Yes, swedish composers are by far the most involved in Eurovision, not only this year. I mean, the thread is motivated. Speaking about WW2 without mention Germany would be strange too, right.

Should Sweden be a member of Big 5? This topic feels somewhat hasty and could have been discussed in the "Swedish imperialism"-thread. We all know why Big 5 exists. Money speaks, not commitment.

Will there be a runaway victory this year? Interesting thread, even if the fact that a swede started it in such a way could feel slightly embarrasing. I give you that one. But it's still an interesting topic, and I'll rather read topics like those than hear people carp at hopeful entusiasts.

And as I've already said, the swedish commitment is by far the greatest of any country. Swedes love to reason and they are exceptionally well-organized on the internet. As a result, the swedish entry has (one of the) biggest abilities to become overrated. Just give us a little spark and we certainly will stoke up the fire. But if you find it tedious after one pair of threads, maybe you should take some care of your patience.

Edit: Hehe, maybe I just added to the swedish arrogance. I tried not to, but I'm still swede (=reasoning, not arrogant), forgive me. But I still think I'm on the right track. ;)

papillon
16th May 2012, 20:57
everyone deserves to be proud of their country's entry. for once i m happy with the cypriot one. its been years since we ve sent a decent song so i get why the swedes are hyped abt loreen. they dont force us to share their views so just let them be. if u dont like their threads then simply dont read them. im not a big loreen fan, the song is ok, i hope they dont win (go::cy ;) ) but i like reading their threads. this is what EUROvision is about. different countries, different songs, each country hoping for the best for its own song but still enjoying the unity that only esc can bring!! only a week left, so enjoy it!! :D

r3gg13
16th May 2012, 21:25
Of course it's fine to be very proud of your own country's entry, and sometimes it sounds like we're tooting our own horns. ;)

I see the appeal for this song, but if it were to win, I don't think it will win by a landslide. I love listening to the song, but when I see the whole performance I get a bit queasy. It's too much of a niche performance to be liked by non-ESC fans, IMO. Rybak's performance, on the other hand, was less niche and less weird to put it as bluntly as possible. My American friends who don't know much about ESC, know about Rybak and his winning song, and they even like his song and performance a lot.

In the end, I could see Sweden and Italy battling out for the top position. Hey maybe even Iceland, Cyprus, Slovenia or Spain could be in the top 3 to 5 :)

Matt
16th May 2012, 21:30
So my guess is that the winner won't win by a large margin, and it could be either Italy or Sweden (if the juries are in a more contemporary mood).



If the juries are in a contemporary mood they won't go for Sweden as that one is quite retro (still good though).

FallenAngelII
16th May 2012, 21:34
I don't see Italy doing that well with the televoters. She's got a nice Amy Winehouse sound going on, but the music is still jazz and jazz doesn't do that well in Eurovision. The reason why I speculate that there might be a runaway victory is because while I recognize that "Euphoria" doesn't have the same wide appeal as "Fairytale" had, it's got the same wide-ish appeal as "Satellite" had, except in a different genre (pop vs. electronic dance pop, Madonna vs. Lady Gaga). The younger generation will embrace the song and it'll probably win the televote or get high marks from most "Western" countries. The juries will recognize her for her powerhouse voice and the composition of the song and it will probably do quite well with the juries.

Sweden's strength comes from the fact that as long as we're able to get high-ish marks from both televoters and juries across Europe (less so in the East, but still), we're pretty home free for the very reason people think it'll be difficult: there are many strong entries. But in a year with many strong entries, if you can emerge as a stronger entry, the rest will have to battle for the scraps. And with contientious races for televotes and jury points (Russia vs. Italy, allegedly), the points will be split not only among the entries but among the juries and televoters, creating a power vaccum that might end up sucking the Top 2-10 down to a middle grounded 100-150 points, not because they're bad or mediocre but because there are so many songs of equal appeal this year.

The reason why people think there won't be a runaway winner is actually the reason why there could be one, as long as the winner is able to distinguish themselves enough from the rest.

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 21:42
My American friends who don't know much about ESC, know about Rybak and his winning song, and they even like his song and performance a lot.
Good point! Here where ESC is not much discussed at all apart from during that weekend, most people knew Alexander Rybak and Fairytale after he won! I remember people talking about him at school (I feel so young!) and that like months afterwards and that never normally happens here. I cannot see the same thing happening with any of the songs this year.

No Name
16th May 2012, 22:01
I see Sweden winning by a landslide, sadly.
The prospects of that alone has left me completely demotivated about ESC this year and that's why I've also decided to dedicate my next saturday for other stuff than ESC (for the first time ever). Seeing Norway win wasn't fun, neither will it be seeing Sweden being rewarded with douze points from the entire Europe.

I also admit I do possess a little-brother syndrome towards Sweden that makes me completely unable to feel happy for them succeeding in sports, ESC, you name it. Even with a good song I would hate to see them win. The "King of ESC"-attitude that many Swedish ESC-fans share, doesn't really make this rivalry any better for me. I've been trying to deny this fact for quite a while, but I might as well acknowledge that I'm a lousy, bitter douche and I'm probably gonna stay that way. :mrgreen:

LakZaNokte
16th May 2012, 22:04
I don't see Italy doing that well with the televoters. She's got a nice Amy Winehouse sound going on, but the music is still jazz and jazz doesn't do that well in Eurovision. The reason why I speculate that there might be a runaway victory is because while I recognize that "Euphoria" doesn't have the same wide appeal as "Fairytale" had, it's got the same wide-ish appeal as "Satellite" had, except in a different genre (pop vs. electronic dance pop, Madonna vs. Lady Gaga). The younger generation will embrace the song and it'll probably win the televote or get high marks from most "Western" countries. The juries will recognize her for her powerhouse voice and the composition of the song and it will probably do quite well with the juries.

what do u think, who will middle-age audience go for; Italy or Sweden?

this is where the big question comes: what is esc audience, when it comes to age.
my guess is, since esc is literally watched by ppl from 5 to 105, logic says that 30+ dominates. tbh, I'm not sure if many 40something ppl will go crazy over Euphoria. xshrug
and yes, this doesn't say anything about the voters. ppl always assume that it's like with reality shows where teens rule. I don't think it's that way with esc.
sadly, I never came across any decent research in these questions so we can only speculate.

further more, we can discuss televoting for a week here and get nowhere. that's only half of the job. what about juries? every1, including me, predicts that Italy will be their pet.

u say: ppl will massively vote for Sweden and juries will be ok with it. all that = victory
I ask: juries will massively vote for Italy, audience will be ok with it. doesn't that = victory as well?

LakZaNokte
16th May 2012, 22:10
Seeing Norway win wasn't fun, neither will it be seeing Sweden being rewarded with douze points from the entire Europe.

north-west, probably.
entire east - probably not.

Mannone
16th May 2012, 22:22
The reason why people think there won't be a runaway winner is actually the reason why there could be one, as long as the winner is able to distinguish themselves enough from the rest.

Interesting speculation, but still speculation. It could as well be one obvious winner followed by one likewise obvious runner-up. It doesn't have to become a vacuum where about 5-6 songs are of the exact same quality and get the same amount of votes. It's a question of percentage of total number of votes, and at what margin the effect of chance decreases (or increases). If Sweden get 10 % more votes than Italy, in total, maybe that difference is big enough for Sweden to steal nine 12-pointers out of ten. If Sweden only get 5 % more votes than Italy, maybe the difference is not big enough to cope with chance (=depending on the sizes of countries who vote more for either song) and Sweden only get every second jackpot.

For us it's easy to say that there are many good entries, because we know them like we know our own pockets. The average viewer will only experience one favourite. Well ok, that is fact, but at least we also have to consider target audience. Maybe Italy appeals to a wider audience than Sweden, and maybe Romania, Greece, Ukraine, Sweden will all steal votes from each other (even if Sweden is still 5 % ahead), with Nina earning votes from another audience? You chose to call it jazz, and that could make it different in a positive way if the other entries have too much in common (as experienced from the angle of an average viewer).

Who knows. It could be a landslide, or a landslide duel, or just a stew like last year.

LakZaNokte
16th May 2012, 22:45
Who knows. It could be a landslide, or a landslide duel, or just a stew like last year.
all that + maybe neither Italy or Sweden will win.

just wanted to comment on the "stew" thing. last year blocks were more furious that ever. Azerbaijan won cause they collected a lot of 8s and 7s. 12s and 10s were awarded mostly inside all those blocks. and that could actually be a good thing for Sweden cause they have a considerable block while Italy doesn't.
so, if Swe collects northern 12s, few points from others while other 12s disperse all around - yes, that could be enough to win.

and yes, it is possible that Italy gaines a lot of points from entire south, gets few from others and also - wins.

and yes, maybe we are completely off here and Russia wins this
xrofl2

tooom
16th May 2012, 23:01
"La-la-la-love" and "Up, up, up, up" will split enough points to prevent a landslide and possibly ruin Sweden's chance of winning. Without Cyprus' song in the race Sweden would probably win. I expect those two entries to end up somewhere between 2-5.

Stargazer
16th May 2012, 23:06
I hope no one will win by a landslide. It takes all of the fun and the excitement out of watching the results unfold. The 2009 voting was the most boring and predictable hour in ESC history. I knew after the third country had given their points that Norway would win.

As for threads on Sweden's supposed excellence started up by Swedes? Yeah it's kind of embarrassing. But this is an interesting topic to discuss, regardless of who the landslide winner would be.

MyHeartIsYours
16th May 2012, 23:16
The 2009 voting I didnt find boring at all, mostly because the UK was doing well for the first time since I watched Eurovision :lol:. But I could imagine it was boring for everyone else, a close competition is much better, especially if it will be close between several countries, not just like 2!

Trece
16th May 2012, 23:28
What you're comparing with Rybak. He won partly: Cute looks, a lot of fans of girls from 13 to 18, which are the target segment of the SMS voting. People 30 + will just watch and enjoy the Eurovision, but not to vote.

My opinion:

I honestly did not know that Rybak is a favorite, and while watching the semifinal and final I did not like his performance (I watched the show until just themselves) was a shock for me to win, so even with such a margin! :o :?

Regarding Sweden. I think it will be either victory with a margin or failure.

QwaarJet
17th May 2012, 01:33
A Satellite victory seems the most likely outcome. The key is bringing in the Eastern votes.

However, I don't think Sweden win. I think It'll be a straight 2-way battle between Russia and Ireland, unfortunately.

LakZaNokte
17th May 2012, 01:37
A Satellite victory seems the most likely outcome. The key is bringing in the Eastern votes.

However, I don't think Sweden win. I think It'll be a straight 2-way battle between Russia and Ireland, unfortunately.
Ireland?
I'm thinking they might even miss the final xshrug

aletem
17th May 2012, 06:24
I don't think we'll have a runway winner. I don't see that happening. There are many good songs this year and many have proved on the rehearsals that they are worthy to go pretty far, whereas some have had troubles during them.
Russia, Ukraine and Azerbaijan will carry the weight from the ex-Soviet countries, as they will likely appear as favourites by the audience (in that region and wider). All the ex-yu countries in the second semi-final are pretty strong. Serbia may have the upper card of having Zeljko on stage, but the others are worthy of a final top10 overall. Bear in mind that in 2009 the ex-yu countries were pretty weak.
Iceland should not be counted out yet. Turkey, Greece and Cyprus bring their own mojo on stage and all can steal many televotes should they reach the final. Romania should be added here too, as with those countries in the first semi, they will be likely in the final.
It is a difficult year and the two so called favourites do not have what it takes to be a runway winner or break a 400-pointer (this is absolutely impossible this year).

FallenAngelII
17th May 2012, 15:19
u say: ppl will massively vote for Sweden and juries will be ok with it. all that = victory
I ask: juries will massively vote for Italy, audience will be ok with it. doesn't that = victory as well?
I highly doubt the televoters will vote for Italy much. Why not?
* It's in Italian, not the most accessible of languages.
* It's jazz, not exactly super-duper popular nowadays or in the near past.

It might get some points, but not many. I predict it'll do worse than Italy last year with the televoters, actually.


A Satellite victory seems the most likely outcome. The key is bringing in the Eastern votes.

However, I don't think Sweden win. I think It'll be a straight 2-way battle between Russia and Ireland, unfortunately.
I believe this is the first time I've seen someone speculate this as being the likely outcome come Final Night. An interesting, though unlikely scenario, in my opinion. Both songs will rely heavily on televotes while being mostly snubbed by the juries.

I don't even get why people think Russia's going to do so well with the televoters. Because they're old? That's patronizing.

MyHeartIsYours
17th May 2012, 15:27
Do you think that the Juries will go for your entry, FallenAngel?

rajo
17th May 2012, 15:29
A Satellite victory seems the most likely outcome. The key is bringing in the Eastern votes.

However, I don't think Sweden win. I think It'll be a straight 2-way battle between Russia and Ireland, unfortunately.

Ireland? Seriously?! Even last year with a much better and enjoyable song they struggled with the televote.

LakZaNokte
17th May 2012, 15:32
I highly doubt the televoters will vote for Italy much. Why not?
* It's in Italian, not the most accessible of languages.
* It's jazz, not exactly super-duper popular nowadays or in the near past.

It might get some points, but not many. I predict it'll do worse than Italy last year with the televoters, actually.

* it's partially in Italian. just enough english for ppl to understand
* and what is popular nowdays? :confused: seriously, I highly doubt that u can compare trends in Sweden and Croatia (for example).

I believe this is the first time I've seen someone speculate this as being the likely outcome come Final Night. An interesting, though unlikely scenario, in my opinion. Both songs will rely heavily on televotes while being mostly snubbed by the juries.

I don't even get why people think Russia's going to do so well with the televoters. Because they're old? That's patronizing.

Russia will do great with televoters cause they are cute. like it or not. they probably won't win but top 5 is very very likely. I'm not a raging fan, just realistic.
now, if u want to discuss why exactly they are cute, we can continue on their thread (no need to discuss that here)

I love this pre-esc speculating xheart

rajo
17th May 2012, 15:37
If there's a runaway winner, then it will be either Romania or Italy.... Sweden will get sucked into the vacuum of 100 to 150 pointers.

FallenAngelII
17th May 2012, 16:03
Do you think that the Juries will go for your entry, FallenAngel?
I think the juries will vote for it enough. In 2010, both Romania and Germany did very well with the juries. Both were modern up-tempo songs, like "Euphoria" (though all 3 represent different genres).


* it's partially in Italian. just enough english for ppl to understand
* and what is popular nowdays? :confused: seriously, I highly doubt that u can compare trends in Sweden and Croatia (for example).
Ah, but you see, electronic dance pop is popular across all of Western Europe. It's somewhat popularish in the East. Jazz on the other hand is a niche genre no matter where you travel.


Russia will do great with televoters cause they are cute. like it or not. they probably won't win but top 5 is very very likely. I'm not a raging fan, just realistic.
now, if u want to discuss why exactly they are cute, we can continue on their thread (no need to discuss that here)
Well, "Bonika Bate Toba" or whatever did do quite well. I hate idiots who vote for entries because they have cute older people in them. Those cute old ladies can't stay in-tune. Stick them in front of Simon Cowell and he'd make them cry.


As for Italy, I doubt it'll win. Italy got 2nd last year because it managed to scrape together 99 televoting points, an average of 2.3 points per voting country. It got an average of 5,83 points from each juries. I predict they'll do worse this year. Even if the juries favour them, the televoters will likely favour them less than last year. The sympathy votes for having returned after a long absence won't exist anymore. They'll have direct competition from Spain and other ballads. And if Italy actually wins the contest due to overwhelming jury support despite so-so to little televoter support, I expect there to be quasi-riots and demands that the juries' powers are reduced to 25% or something starting next year.

LakZaNokte
17th May 2012, 16:27
Well, "Bonika Bate Toba" or whatever did do quite well. I hate idiots who vote for entries because they have cute older people in them. Those cute old ladies can't stay in-tune. Stick them in front of Simon Cowell and he'd make them cry.
I don't want them to win either. it would be really bad for esc.


As for Italy, I doubt it'll win. Italy got 2nd last year because it managed to scrape together 99 televoting points, an average of 2.3 points per voting country. It got an average of 5,83 points from each juries. I predict they'll do worse this year. Even if the juries favour them, the televoters will likely favour them less than last year. The sympathy votes for having returned after a long absence won't exist anymore. They'll have direct competition from Spain and other ballads.
you forgot to mention that this year they have a better song :D. it actually has more quality and more appeal to the wide audience.

And if Italy actually wins the contest due to overwhelming jury support despite so-so to little televoter support, I expect there to be quasi-riots and demands that the juries' powers are reduced to 25% or something starting next year.
now you're just being ridiculous.
yeah, if Sweden doesn't win, esc is going down down down.
please.

Trece
17th May 2012, 18:20
The question on this topic - rhetorical. No point in discussing it as many pages, because nothing is impossible to predict.
....Or possibly (2009 and 2010) :mrgreen:

LakZaNokte
17th May 2012, 18:24
The question on this topic - rhetorical. No point in discussing it as many pages, because nothing is impossible to predict.
....Or possibly (2009 and 2010) :mrgreen:
of course there is no point in discussing this, we (I do, at least) do it just for fun :D

watersoup
17th May 2012, 21:32
I think the juries will vote for it enough. In 2010, both Romania and Germany did very well with the juries. Both were modern up-tempo songs, like "Euphoria" (though all 3 represent different genres).


Ah, but you see, electronic dance pop is popular across all of Western Europe. It's somewhat popularish in the East. Jazz on the other hand is a niche genre no matter where you travel.


Well, "Bonika Bate Toba" or whatever did do quite well. I hate idiots who vote for entries because they have cute older people in them. Those cute old ladies can't stay in-tune. Stick them in front of Simon Cowell and he'd make them cry.


As for Italy, I doubt it'll win. Italy got 2nd last year because it managed to scrape together 99 televoting points, an average of 2.3 points per voting country. It got an average of 5,83 points from each juries. I predict they'll do worse this year. Even if the juries favour them, the televoters will likely favour them less than last year. The sympathy votes for having returned after a long absence won't exist anymore. They'll have direct competition from Spain and other ballads. And if Italy actually wins the contest due to overwhelming jury support despite so-so to little televoter support, I expect there to be quasi-riots and demands that the juries' powers are reduced to 25% or something starting next year.

Jazz? Ballad? Italian?

I'm curious, you do realise they are not sending Per Sempre, right? Because L'Amore Femmina is an uptempo pop song (with jazz elements) sung almost entirely in English. I think it will have a lot more appeal with voters than you assume.

FallenAngelII
17th May 2012, 23:07
you forgot to mention that this year they have a better song :D. it actually has more quality and more appeal to the wide audience.
Yes, but that's not saying much. I didn't like Italy's entry last year. He looked and sounded like a lounge singer.


now you're just being ridiculous.
yeah, if Sweden doesn't win, esc is going down down down.
please.
Did you even read what I said? What I said was that if Italy wins due to overwhelming jury support and so-so to low televoting support, the function of the juries will be called into question. Because while they've been relatively in-tune with the televoters, but last year they just steamrolled the televoters, giving Italy 250% as many points as the televoters. If it happens again and is the reason why Italy wins despite Italy coming in 8th-ish with the televoters, people won't stay quiet.

It's OK for the juries to change the line-up of the Top 10, but or them to outright elect the winner against the wishes of the televoters will not stand. If Sweden doesn't win, then so be it. But if Italy wins due to the juries once more steamrolling the televoters, it will be a travesty.



I'm curious, you do realise they are not sending Per Sempre, right? Because L'Amore Femmina is an uptempo pop song (with jazz elements) sung almost entirely in English. I think it will have a lot more appeal with voters than you assume.
I'd only given "L'amore femmina" a cursory listen to before and I guess it kinda blended in with "Per sempre" in my mind.

It's an uptempo jazz song. Jazz, not the most accessible of genres, especially not in East. I predict it will do well with televoters, but it won't be Top 3 or even Top 5 with the televoters. I think it'll do as well as Italy did last year (8thish) with televoters. We've seen a few jazz-flavoured entries in the contest in the past couple of years and every single one of them failed pretty spectacularly. Song quality aside, I just think the genre is a hard sell in Eurovision.

LakZaNokte
17th May 2012, 23:23
Yes, but that's not saying much. I didn't like Italy's entry last year. He looked and sounded like a lounge singer.


Did you even read what I said? What I said was that if Italy wins due to overwhelming jury support and so-so to low televoting support, the function of the juries will be called into question. Because while they've been relatively in-tune with the televoters, but last year they just steamrolled the televoters, giving Italy 250% as many points as the televoters. If it happens again and is the reason why Italy wins despite Italy coming in 8th-ish with the televoters, people won't stay quiet.

It's OK for the juries to change the line-up of the Top 10, but or them to outright elect the winner against the wishes of the televoters will not stand. If Sweden doesn't win, then so be it. But if Italy wins due to the juries once more steamrolling the televoters, it will be a travesty.
I know what u said. and I'm still saying the same. cause I know what u're really thinking ;) (if jury pts for Italy "overrule" televoting in which, as u said, Swe will win -> Swe would be sore loser then)
and pls don't tell me that isn't your line of thoughts cause we both know it is. if Swe wasn't in a position that is (one of the favs for a win), u wouldn't care about "jury winner", just like I don't. ;)

btw, how would u feel about "jury winner" if juries pick, for example, Iceland, and Russia is the 1 that wins televoting but the juries overrule that? Sweden ends up in 5th place. would u say than the same thing u are saying now?

I'd only given "L'amore femmina" a cursory listen to before and I guess it kinda blended in with "Per sempre" in my mind.

It's an uptempo jazz song. Jazz, not the most accessible of genres, especially not in East. I predict it will do well with televoters, but it won't be Top 3 or even Top 5 with the televoters. I think it'll do as well as Italy did last year (8thish) with televoters.

forget Per sempre. try listening to it again.

Franco
18th May 2012, 00:01
What I said was that if Italy wins due to overwhelming jury support and so-so to low televoting support, the function of the juries will be called into question.

I can't see why that should happen. Last year televoting overthrew the juries' virdict, but nobody called in question the function of televoting. xthink

FallenAngelII
18th May 2012, 00:03
I know what u said. and I'm still saying the same. cause I know what u're really thinking ;) (if jury pts for Italy "overrule" televoting in which, as u said, Swe will win -> Swe would be sore loser then)
No, you're not getting it. No matter who would've won had the juries not elevated Italy to victory against the wishes of the people, there'll be outrage if the televoters vote Italy as 8th or something, yet they win due to overwhelming jury support.


and pls don't tell me that isn't your line of thoughts cause we both know it is. if Swe wasn't in a position that is (one of the favs for a win), u wouldn't care about "jury winner", just like I don't. ;)
Except I totally would.


btw, how would u feel about "jury winner" if juries pick, for example, Iceland, and Russia is the 1 that wins televoting but the juries overrule that? Sweden ends up in 5th place. would u say than the same thing u are saying now?
Yes. The juries exist to balance the votes, not steamroll over the televoters and elect songs that the televoters barely like.


forget Per sempre. try listening to it again.
I did. It's not a (televote) winner.


I can't see why that should happen. Last year televoting overthrew the juries' virdict, but nobody called in question the function of televoting. xthink
Because the juries do not exist to elect the winner or to steamroll the televoters. They exist to balance the results. If they however move from simply balancing the results to steamrolling the televoters and electing winners the televoters didn't even vote into the Top 5, there'll be outrage because televoting costs money and people will feel cheated. The juries weren't reinstated because undeserving songs kept winning the contest. Even the staunchest of whiners had to agree that the winners were pretty deserving. However, there was discontent with how there seemingly being too much diaspora and neighbour voting involved in electing the rest of the Top 10, so the juries were restored to balance those spots.

But if they start steamrolling over the televote, electing winners the televoters wouldn't in a million years elect as winners, people will be angry and with all right.

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 00:29
why would any1 get angry over that? do u expect riots all over Europe if Russia wins televoting (not unlikely, btw) but ends up in 3rd place cause of the juries?

FallenAngelII
18th May 2012, 00:34
why would any1 get angry over that? do u expect riots all over Europe if Russia wins televoting (not unlikely, btw) but ends up in 3rd place cause of the juries?
1) Did I use the word "riots"?
2) I actually expect there to be quite the hullabaloo the day the juries elect a winner the televoters didn't elect if and when that happens.
3) A winner ending up in 3rd place is not as bad as an entry the televoters voted into 8th place or lower winning.

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 00:49
so it's ok when juries degrade some1 but it isn't ok when they "upgrade" them?
they are going against televoting either way xshrug

Mannone
18th May 2012, 00:52
Nothing good comes from jury-voting. They are nothing but a boost for the biggest favourites before the contest. Members of the juries gets scared of abusing their power, which leads to a voting that is impossible to accuse afterwards, and the only outcome which is impossible to accuse is the one that have already been best lobbied for, i.e. the favourites.

So nothing good can possibly come from jury-voting. It's just a lousy way of controlling the outcome, and of minimizing the chances of a sensation. In the swedish Melodifestivalen 2008, jury-voting lead to another winner than chosen by the televoters. The result in ESC? A disaster, just as their, as expected very expected choice, was.

FallenAngelII
18th May 2012, 01:07
so it's ok when juries degrade some1 but it isn't ok when they "upgrade" them?
they are going against televoting either way xshrug
Is English your 9th language? It's OK for the juries to change the standings a bit, but not for them to elect a winner the televoters didn't even come close to electing winner. And I still expect there to be protests (as in the action, not the organized kind) the day the juries elect a winner the televoters didn't, even if they came close to doing so.



So nothing good can possibly come from jury-voting. It's just a lousy way of controlling the outcome, and of minimizing the chances of a sensation. In the swedish Melodifestivalen 2008, jury-voting lead to another winner than chosen by the televoters. The result in ESC? A disaster, just as their, as expected very expected choice, was.
Don't forget 2005, the start of our long, sad downward spiral (except for in 2006) when the juries elected Martin Stenmarck the winner with the horrendous song "Las Vegas" over Nanne Grnvalls crowd pleaser "Hll on mig".

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 01:35
Is English your 9th language? It's OK for the juries to change the standings a bit, but not for them to elect a winner the televoters didn't even come close to electing winner. And I still expect there to be protests (as in the action, not the organized kind) the day the juries elect a winner the televoters didn't, even if they came close to doing so.

1) don't get crazy, this is just esc
2) why shouldn't juries do even that? if they can't act how they want, why are they here then? audience already proved as crap. blocks and diaspora, nothing else. why should those votes be more "worthy"?

Mannone
18th May 2012, 01:41
audience already proved as crap. blocks and diaspora, nothing else.

If you actually think so, I really hope you won't vote this year. What you just said is: "I only vote for my neighbouring countries, therefore my vote is worthless". So please spare Europe of your worthless vote.

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 01:48
If you actually think so, I really hope you won't vote this year. What you just said is: "I only vote for my neighbouring countries, therefore my vote is worthless". So please spare Europe your worthless vote.
yes, ad hominem attacks are always good.

hugs and kisses xheart

Mannone
18th May 2012, 02:12
yes, ad hominem attacks are always good.

hugs and kisses xheart

"Ad hominem". Let me guess. Some big shot on 4chan gave you a lesson and you are wearing "ad-hominem"-stamps ever since?

I'm way serious. YOU are the audience. And you just confirmed why your statement is the biggest myth of Eurovision. You just uttered the stereotypical view of Eurovision: "I'm the only one who doesn't vote for my neighbours, but everybody else do".

No, everybody else don't either. Not many people do, actually. Psychology works the other way around. Your biggest rivals are your closest neighbours. Your neighbours are the ones that you wish the least of luck in any competition. That is why Eurovision is so fantastic, because people DO vote for their neighbours in spite of the FACT that they shouldn't.

Neighbour-voting becomes an illusion, which depend on the fact that people are predisposed to like something they have grown up with and that they first encountered during their secondary socialisation (=when you inherit the cultural patterns of your family and immediate vicinity). Nordic people have grown up with different music than have people from Balkan. In the statistical long run, i.e. when enough people from any country have voted, this cultural predisposition will play a crucial part. It will show what swedes like, rather than who our neighbours are. In this contest it oftens means the entries of our neighbours, but it's not because we hope for Nordic entries to win.

Look at it as opposite forces, and where the friendly force (cultural predisposition) is stronger than it's hostile opposite (next door rivalry).

I realize this is not the entire truth. Some countries are actually even less inclined to vote for their neighbours thanks to political conditions. So unless you actually think that you are the only one who doesn't vote for your neighbours, please reconsider this situation and realize that ordinary people, like yourself, almost entirely vote for their favourite entry.

EDIT: Finally you can ask the question how the friendly force can win this battle. My answer is that Eurovision is not utterly serious for enough people. If it were in real dead earnest, like most sports, I could guarantee you that rivalry would take over and swedes would prefer a Bosnian winner over a Norwegian. Guarantee. And something that is not deadly serious will definitely not lead to masses voting for their neighbours.

FallenAngelII
18th May 2012, 02:17
1) don't get crazy, this is just esc
2) why shouldn't juries do even that? if they can't act how they want, why are they here then? audience already proved as crap. blocks and diaspora, nothing else. why should those votes be more "worthy"?
1) Actually read my posts and stop claiming I said stuff I never said then.
2) The EBU were very clear on why the juries were brought back. They were not brought back to steamroll the will of the people.
3) Funny how the juries and the televoters agreed on the winner in 2009 and 2010. I guess Europe decided to be less diaspory and blocky those years. Last year, the juries thought the people's winner's choice was good enough to get 2nd place. I repeat: The juries were brought back to complement the televote. They exist to balance the televote, to elevate entries that might need more than 1 listen to really shine, to lessen diaspora and block voting and to look at songs first before looking at stage show and singing ability. These are the official reasons as to why they were brought back. Don't like them? Then you disagree with the EBU itself. I didn't invent those guidelines, the EBU did. The juries do not exist to entirely steamroll the televoters and elect a winner they do not want. End of story.

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 02:41
"Ad hominem". Let me guess. Some big shot on 4chan gave you a lesson and you are wearing "ad-hominem"-stamps ever since?
no. I just have a lot of experience with forums so I know how to recognize them xshrug

I'm way serious. YOU are the audience. And you just confirmed why your statement is the biggest myth of Eurovision. You just uttered the stereotypical view of Eurovision: "I'm the only one who doesn't vote for my neighbours, but everybody else do".

No, everybody else don't either. Not many people do, actually. Psychology works the other way around. Your biggest rivals are your closest neighbours. Your neighbours are the ones that you wish the least of luck in any competition. That is why Eurovision is so fantastic, because people DO vote for their neighbours in spite of the FACT that they shouldn't.

Neighbour-voting becomes an illusion, which depend on the fact that people are predisposed to like something they have grown up with and that they first encountered during their secondary socialisation (=when you inherit the cultural patterns of your family and immediate vicinity). Nordic people have grown up with different music than have people from Balkan. In the statistical long run, i.e. when enough people from any country have voted, this cultural predisposition will play a crucial part. It will show what swedes like, rather than who our neighbours are. In this contest it oftens means the entries of our neighbours, but it's not because we hope for Nordic entries to win.

Look at it as opposite forces, and where the friendly force (cultural predisposition) is stronger than it's hostile opposite (next door rivalry).

I realize this is not the entire truth. Some countries are actually even less inclined to vote for their neighbours thanks to political conditions. So unless you actually think that you are the only one who doesn't vote for your neighbours, please reconsider this situation and realize that ordinary people, like yourself, almost entirely vote for their favourite entry.

look, everything u said is true. but I am also realistic. my vote for Estonia won't change the fact that our neighbors will get our 12 and 10 (speaking of our semi). xshrug
and that's what I'm talking about. 1 person can't override thousands of diaspora votes. they are there and they must be taken into consideration when we speculate about voting. I don't like them but I'm not ignoring them either. (for my country and every1 else, no exception)

Mannone
18th May 2012, 02:45
no. I just have a lot of experience with forums so I know how to recognize them xshrug

look, everything u said is true. but I am also realistic. my vote for Estonia won't change the fact that our neighbors will get our 12 and 10 (speaking of our semi). xshrug
and that's what I'm talking about. 1 person can't override thousands of diaspora votes. they are there and they must be taken into consideration when we speculate about voting. I don't like them but I'm not ignoring them either. (for my country and every1 else, no exception)

You didn't get one word of what I just said, right? Well, if you want to keep believing in diaspora-votes it is your choice. At least I'm convinced the other way around. Let's turn into happy fans again. ;)

LalehForWD
18th May 2012, 02:48
I see Sweden winning by a landslide, sadly.
The prospects of that alone has left me completely demotivated about ESC this year and that's why I've also decided to dedicate my next saturday for other stuff than ESC (for the first time ever). Seeing Norway win wasn't fun, neither will it be seeing Sweden being rewarded with douze points from the entire Europe.

I also admit I do possess a little-brother syndrome towards Sweden that makes me completely unable to feel happy for them succeeding in sports, ESC, you name it. Even with a good song I would hate to see them win. The "King of ESC"-attitude that many Swedish ESC-fans share, doesn't really make this rivalry any better for me. I've been trying to deny this fact for quite a while, but I might as well acknowledge that I'm a lousy, bitter douche and I'm probably gonna stay that way. :mrgreen:

xwavexcheerxcheer1

http://25.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m3vk6nA5sq1rr38qlo5_250.gif

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 03:03
1) Actually read my posts and stop claiming I said stuff I never said then.
2) The EBU were very clear on why the juries were brought back. They were not brought back to steamroll the will of the people.
3) Funny how the juries and the televoters agreed on the winner in 2009 and 2010. I guess Europe decided to be less diaspory and blocky those years. Last year, the juries thought the people's winner's choice was good enough to get 2nd place. I repeat: The juries were brought back to complement the televote. They exist to balance the televote, to elevate entries that might need more than 1 listen to really shine, to lessen diaspora and block voting and to look at songs first before looking at stage show and singing ability. These are the official reasons as to why they were brought back. Don't like them? Then you disagree with the EBU itself. I didn't invent those guidelines, the EBU did. The juries do not exist to entirely steamroll the televoters and elect a winner they do not want. End of story.
I always loved those "official" statements. in my experience, they are only saying what isn't.
anyways, in short, they are here to judge the songs. if that's their only job, why would any1 have a problem with their choice? this is a song contest :D
what is wrong if a song that ppl from industry think is best, wins? if televoting consists mostly from diaspora and politics (EBU itself admitted that with those official reasons), why is that so horrible?

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 03:09
You didn't get one word of what I just said, right? Well, if you want to keep believing in diaspora-votes it is your choice. At least I'm convinced the other way around. Let's turn into happy fans again. ;)
I'm not sure if u understood me either.
also, not sure what your point is, that diaspora/political* voting doesn't really exist? u can call it and explain it how ever u want, it's still there. that's my point xshrug

*"political" includes neighbors and such, ofc

Mannone
18th May 2012, 03:28
I'm not sure if u understood me either.
also, not sure what your point is, that diaspora/political* voting doesn't really exist? u can call it and explain it how ever u want, it's still there. that's my point xshrug

*"political" includes neighbors and such, ofc

Exactly. That is my point. It doesn't really exist. It's still there, and I give you that one, but it's not there because people are especially fond of their neighbours. And that is a crucial point of mine. Another point is that I'm likewise convinced this illusory diaspora-voting will reduce as time goes. Why do I think so? Simply thanks to globalization.

Therefore I consider diaspora-voting a great phenomenon, which indicate that people still treat ESC as a uniting party more than a deadly contest. I hope it will stay this way and that ESC will continue to assist, rather than oppose, globalization.

EDIT: Well, I realize the assistance is partly misjudged though. I mean, it really is a pity that people accuse each other of diaspora-voting. I believe ESC is doing so much good, but instead of realizing this people are too suspicious, and too susceptible for hostility. Diaspora-voting (the way almost everybody understand it) does not exist. Leave it and let ESC unite.

FallenAngelII
18th May 2012, 06:29
if televoting consists mostly from diaspora and politics (EBU itself admitted that with those official reasons), why is that so horrible?
Except that's a lie and I'm done with you. Televoting is all diaspora and politics? I guess Eastern Europe decided to not be so corrupt in 2009. I guess the Nordics decided to stop liking Sweden between the years of 2005, 2007-2010. I guess Finland's always been weird and so has Malta. I guess the world ended when Eastern Europe didn't really support Russia in 2009. I guess Ireland the United Kingdom really hate each other because they often don't give each other high marks, if any, nowadays...

Whatever.

electricstorm
18th May 2012, 12:28
Diaspora exists, but it follows the songs, not the other way around. Wonder why everyone in Scandanavia gave high points to Iceland and Norway in 09 but not the next year? Because they were better, more appealing songs. Funny how all of a sudden Northern and Central Europe stated diaspora voting for Germany in 2010 when it hadn't seen a lick of those votes before or since. There are a few extreme cases were you can bank on high points being exchanged (Turkey/Azerbaijan, Belarus/Russia, Cyprus/Greece etc) but these cases won't ever drastically affect the outcome.

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 14:21
Except that's a lie and I'm done with you. Televoting is all diaspora and politics? I guess Eastern Europe decided to not be so corrupt in 2009. I guess the Nordics decided to stop liking Sweden between the years of 2005, 2007-2010. I guess Finland's always been weird and so has Malta. I guess the world ended when Eastern Europe didn't really support Russia in 2009. I guess Ireland the United Kingdom really hate each other because they often don't give each other high marks, if any, nowadays...

Whatever.
try reading again. actually, it doesn't matter anyways.

you opened this thread cause you wanted to discuss will Sweden be a runaway winner or it will be tight. but with Swe will be a winner in any case. and we should all agree on that and discuss how excellent Euphoria is. yeah, right.
unless you were thinking that Russia, Iceland, Denmark, Cyprus, or Italy have a chance of being a runaway :D. and we both know you weren't :D

LakZaNokte
18th May 2012, 14:26
Exactly. That is my point. It doesn't really exist. It's still there, and I give you that one, but it's not there because people are especially fond of their neighbours. And that is a crucial point of mine. Another point is that I'm likewise convinced this illusory diaspora-voting will reduce as time goes. Why do I think so? Simply thanks to globalization.

Therefore I consider diaspora-voting a great phenomenon, which indicate that people still treat ESC as a uniting party more than a deadly contest. I hope it will stay this way and that ESC will continue to assist, rather than oppose, globalization.

EDIT: Well, I realize the assistance is partly misjudged though. I mean, it really is a pity that people accuse each other of diaspora-voting. I believe ESC is doing so much good, but instead of realizing this people are too suspicious, and too susceptible for hostility. Diaspora-voting (the way almost everybody understand it) does not exist. Leave it and let ESC unite.
unfortunately, I see a possibility of going in a opposite direction, but that is more for "politics" subforum.

orkaem
19th May 2012, 10:42
It's going to be Russia. An Loreen will not manage to stop them from the 9th position... ESC cruelty!

FallenAngelII
19th May 2012, 11:39
It's going to be Russia. An Loreen will not manage to stop them from the 9th position... ESC cruelty!
Russia will be lucky to get even within the Top 10 with the juries. There's no chance in Hell they're going to win. The juries were instituted in part to prevent entries like Russia's to do too well. It's practically a joke entry. Latvians singing about how they're pirates = Laughed at and derisively called a joke entry. Old Mongolian grandmas rapping and singing about "Part for everybody" = Winner candidate! Please!

FallenAngelII
27th May 2012, 11:29
Remember this thread?
Norway 2009: 387 points
Iceland 2009: 218 pints
Difference: 169

Sweden 2012: 372 points
Russia in 2012: 259 points
Difference: 113

Second biggest point difference in the history of the contest unless I'm mistaken.

Bonus:
Norway 2009: 16 12-pointers
Sweden 2012: 18 12-pointers

Norway 2009: Points from 41 out of 41 possible countries
Sweden 2012: Points from 40 out of 41 possible countries (darn you, Italy!)

QwaarJet
27th May 2012, 11:52
Yeah, you nailed that prediction pretty well.

rajo
27th May 2012, 14:06
Italy really had a weird vote, why is that?

With Italy and better scores from Portugal and Malta, Sweden could have caught Rybak.

FallenAngelII
27th May 2012, 14:17
Italy really had a weird vote, why is that?

With Italy and better scores from Portugal and Malta, Sweden could have caught Rybak.
The Meditteranean countries didn't seem to like Sweden as much as expected. Maybe the televoting failed in Italy and they went solely on jury points. Or vice versa. Portugal, San Marino and Italy were the only countries to award Loreen less than 5 points (3, 3, 0). There's something strange going on there. Last year, Italy and Portugal gave Sweden 0 points and San Marino didn't participate.

Every single Eastern European country gave Loreen at least 6 points.

I really expected Malta to give us 12 points. They gave 12 points to Charlotte Perelli 2008 for Christ's sake. Think about it like this:
Rybak had the advantage of being of half-Belorussian descent (i.e. automatic Eastern votes) and a song which sounded vaguely Eastern European. Loreen managed to win over Europe and rack up almost as many points as Rybak despite not having some pan-European descent (she's Maroccan-Berber, i.e. not even European) and her song wasn't a folk song or a song made to appeal to Eastern Europe. Despite being simply a modern dance pop song, her performance managed to make history by being the entry with the most 12 pointers (18) and coming within striking distance of Rybak's record.

rajo
27th May 2012, 14:36
I wouldn't have counted on the Maltese vote, it is always pathetic.... voting for Charlotte in 2008 was already weird, and now voting for bland ballad from Azerbaijan even more..... :D

But I didn't really see Austria go for Sweden. Our votes are always occupied by Serbia and Bosnia and the rest of Balkan....

And Kathi was so delighted to be the first to announce Swedish full marks.

Matt
27th May 2012, 23:18
The Meditteranean countries didn't seem to like Sweden as much as expected. Maybe the televoting failed in Italy and they went solely on jury points. Or vice versa. Portugal, San Marino and Italy were the only countries to award Loreen less than 5 points (3, 3, 0). There's something strange going on there. Last year, Italy and Portugal gave Sweden 0 points and San Marino didn't participate.



I can see the televoters giving Loreen 5 or 6 points and the jury nothing which with the right combination could be enough causing Sweden not to receive any points.

FallenAngelII
28th May 2012, 00:03
I'm rewatching the final with the BBC commentary and I noticed something when San Marino was giving away their points. The presenter says "These are the points of the San Marinese jury" (in French). So, clearly, San Marino went 100% jury. +1 for the conspiracy theory!

rajo
28th May 2012, 00:07
I wouldn't mind if San Marino leaves the contest, like Andorra and Monaco, since there is no relevant voting audience. One televoter could decide with multiple votes who's gonna get the 12 points. But they don't seem to have televoting anyway, so it's time to say goodbye to San Marino! They should join Italy and vote with them for Eurovision.

Quent91
28th May 2012, 13:54
San Marino will stay as long Italy stays in the contest. RAI pays for their participation to get more points in the final from SM.

EurovisionSmile
28th May 2012, 15:51
San Marino will stay as long Italy stays in the contest. RAI pays for their participation to get more points in the final from SM.

This time it was only 7 and not 12. :mrgreen:

Anyway, it was an impressive victory for Sweden, but not as impressive as Rybak's victory. Less 15 points and closer to the runner-up. (113 points, while Rybak ended 169 ahead of Iceland) So it remains a record hard to break