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FoxOfShadows
8th March 2019, 17:15
All songs are out for Semi 1 so who do you think will qualify?

Realest
8th March 2019, 17:17
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D1JdIxUWkAEGR7z.jpg:large

Realest
8th March 2019, 17:19
::cy::pt::au::is::rs::gr::cz::hu::be::ee

Preuss
8th March 2019, 17:21
I feel like the 1st semi-final looks like the strongest atm lol

Citelis
8th March 2019, 17:36
SF1 is weak with many terrible songs!

Propably theese are the 10 songs that will make it to the final:
1.::pt 2.::cy 3.::is 4.::sl 5.::cz 6.::au 7.::be 8.::ee 9.::rs 10.::ge

0scar
8th March 2019, 17:39
::be ::ee ::gr ::cy ::cz I guess, maybe ::au ::hu ::is ::sl ::pt as well? Really though semi to predict

burrito
8th March 2019, 17:39
Slovenia
Australia
Belgium
Portugal
Greece
Hungary
Serbia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
+ Belarus or Estonia

Zonne147
8th March 2019, 17:43
I want:

::pt ::cy ::au ::ee ::be ::is ::cz ::rs ::hu ::fi

My prediction:

::pt ::cy ::au ::be ::is ::cz ::ee ::hu ::sl ::gr

Preuss
8th March 2019, 18:14
I actually think this semi is turning out to be the stronger one

I do suspect that ::cy will win the semi because "Replay" is a solid song that should score well with juries and televote - also given that Tamta's vocals are probably better than Eleni's and SJB will stage it, I think she's in serious contention of winning the semi with the juries and televote.

Alaska49
8th March 2019, 18:27
one of those hard semis to predict. not many locks or dead on arrival entries.


the locks to me are ::be::cy::cz::au::pt and since y'all seem to be so confident in it i am including ::is though i still fear for my bdsm angels. this leaves us four spots, which i currently gave to ::sl (counting on its strong first impression), ::rs (they have their natural advantage and nevena should keep enough juries on their side), ::gr (the song is too good to die but then again so was oniro mou - this can't fuck up staging and survive) and, bizarrely, ::fi (if sebastian sings even remotely well then i think juries will be into the message???).


this still leaves out a bunch of people with a strong chance such as ::hu, ::ee, ::pl, ::by, and i guess enough people like ::sm unironically that they have to be considered? this is literally everyone in the semi except ::me (which has a revamp coming so who even knows) and ::ge. good lord. i will go back and forth on this semi probably all the way until rehearsals.

anaraqueen
8th March 2019, 18:30
::pt::is::cy::au::rs::cz::hu::by::fi and of course ::sm

i, for some reason, think that belgium and greece will screw up in the staging AGAIN, and slovenia will be drawfucked

EscTurkey
8th March 2019, 21:08
This semi will be very difficult to predict. There's literally no song that I can say is surely qualifying hahaha
All songs are risky attempts that could go either very well or completely wrong.

QuirkyYodel
8th March 2019, 21:44
This semi will be very difficult to predict. There's literally no song that I can say is surely qualifying hahaha
All songs are risky attempts that could go either very well or completely wrong.

This! The only definite qualifier I see now is Cyprus. The rest depend on the draw and, obviously, staging.

mauve
8th March 2019, 21:44
Most likely to qualify:
Portugal, Iceland, Belgium

The others are hard to predict, maybe:
Slovenia, San Marino, Greece, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Poland, Georgia

Would LOVE to see in the final:
Georgia, Iceland, Portugal, Poland, Czech Republic and San Marino.

aef
8th March 2019, 22:05
My wild guess for the SF 1 result:

1. ::is
2. ::hu
3. ::ee
4. ::cz
5. ::sl
6. ::pt
7. ::cy
8. ::be
9. ::pl
10. ::gr
---
11. ::fi
12. ::by
13. ::rs
14. ::au
15. ::sm
16. ::ge
17. ::me

JonnyWest
8th March 2019, 23:43
Who I THINK will qualify: ::au::be::cy::ee::gr::hu::is::pt::rs::sl

Who I WANT to qualify: All the ten above, with ::sm very close at 11th

Wow I think this never happened to me :lol: clear choices for me in this semifinal

Kaz
8th March 2019, 23:46
Definitely:
::cy
Probably:
::au::ee::gr::is::pt::rs::sl
Borderline:
::by::be::fi::hu::pl
Probably not:
::cz::ge::sm
Definitely not:
::me (without hearing the revamp)

JonnyWest
8th March 2019, 23:48
Deleted

valenzbar
8th March 2019, 23:57
I completely agree with the poll.

Cyprys - 30
Iceland - 29
Portugal - 29
Belgium - 26
Greece - 26
Slovenia - 25
Australia - 23
Hungary - 23
Czech - 20
Estonia - 19

Except that I would exchange Hungary with Serbia.

Alaska49
9th March 2019, 01:36
why are some people borderline on belgium? i know sennek just happened but that's RTBF. this year is VRT and they don't pull that kind of crap on us. they got a 12th place out of roberto bellarosa!! i expect staging to be great as it has been every time in their years since then, though of course eliot needs it because wake up is not an impervious song.

y'all are also sleeping on czech republic. it's probably my second most confident pick for qualification behind cyprus and its inevitable SJB extravaganza. albert is pribably the most charismatic vocalist this year and the song is upbeat and catchy. it should be easy for them!

wtf
9th March 2019, 01:40
This semi is so hard to predict because we have no idea whether the jury loves acts like Iceland, Poland, Portugal, Hungary? Will they even like Slovenia?
I expect them to rank Greece, Belgium, Cyprus and Serbia high.
Estonia is something they'd usually hype but it's not from Sweden so can be a turn off + he must improve his vocals. So I can see them giving it a Verona result in the end.

ZoboCamel
9th March 2019, 01:43
Tough semi to predict; as others say, I'm not really seeing anything here as a completely safe lock-in. For a bit of a methodical look:

If I had to pick one, I'd say the safest song in the semi is ::cy.

Guessing then at another 3 or 4 from the first half (the qualifier split between halves is always 5-5 or 4-6), ::hu::rs::sl all look like a good shot.

And if we're getting at a fifth qualifier from the half, ::fi might scrape through in a lower spot as well due to a combination of having no genre overlap with other songs, good staging potential and Darude memes.

In the second half, ::au::is::pt are probably more likely in than out, but they're all a big risk, and I'm not sure we'd get three songs that are so out-there all qualifying from the same half. I'm saying they're in for now but wouldn't at all be surprised if one or two miss out.

That then leaves two more songs from the half, of which I think ::ee should get through (being a safe, accessible pop song with a telegenic singer in amongst all the madness of the other second-half songs).

And finally, I think one of ::be or ::gr will make it – whichever manages to stage and appeal to juries better (probably Belgium but it's hard to tell).


In terms of my predicted NQs, I think a lot of them still have a good chance. In particular, Lake Malawi seem to be good live, which could put the Czech Republic close; Poland is always hard to discount; and Serhat's 12th place was a lot closer than people expected last time, so with a better song this time around I think San Marino have a fighting chance.

For my very early, likely very wrong prediction (not of ranking but of qualification chance), I'll go with:

01. ::cy
02. ::hu
03. ::ee
04. ::sl
05. ::is
06. ::rs
07. ::au
08. ::pt
09. ::be
10. ::fi
11. ::sm
12. ::gr
13. ::cz
14. ::pl
15. ::by
16. ::ge
17. ::me

Kitakaze
9th March 2019, 03:38
Early pickings at this stage. Look forward to analysing in detail when we’ve got more of an idea of the stagings, running order and momentum, etc.etc.

Safe
1. Cyprus

Likely
2. Estonia
3. Iceland
4. Portugal
5. Australia
6. Hungary
7. Greece
8. Belgium

Borderline
9. Slovenia
10. Serbia
11. Czech Republic
12. San Marino
13. Finland

Unlikely
14. Poland
15. Belarus
16. Georgia
17. Montenegro

Matt
9th March 2019, 04:02
If you have a sec, feel free to vote in our poll as well.

https://escunited.com/poll-who-is-your-favorite-song-from-semi-final-1/

Clinty
9th March 2019, 04:23
I kinda have no ass clue what's gonna happen and all of this could be reversed come rehearsals, nor do I have anything significant to really add, but in the spirit of boosting my post count i'm gonna give my thots anyway!!

I feel like ::by Belarus is almost certainly dead. No juror will vote for it and ::cy Cyprus, in the same half and definitely qualifying, is more immediately accessible and isn't fronted by an icy Belarusian rando so I think Tamta's gonna nuke poor Zena on her way to the final.
I don't see a universe where ::cz Czechia doesn't make it? idk what y'all smoking because this is great and definitely placing in the top.... 7 at LEAST in the jury and definitely top 10 in the televote, and that's just at the very worst. Realistically, I think he'll sail through.
I think ::fi Finland is kinda fucked lol. The song isn't strong enough to grab anyone, juror or televoter, and really hold onto them. Maybe if Sebastian learned to sing then they might scrape through in 10th or 9th, but otherwise they're on the Poland 2018 trajectory and Light Me Up was in a worse semi, soooo.... Oh, and it's also *Finland*, so getting shat on by their entire continent is all part of the experience.
::pl Poland I really wanna believe can make it but I'm scared the jury will drag this down and it'll miss out in 11th place or something. I don't think it'll necessarily have *too* much trouble being in the televoters' top 10, and if the jury rank it higher than like ::sm San Marino (who I think is unfortunately doomed), ::ge Georgia (who I think is fortunately doomed), and ::me Montenegro (who is fucked unless they pull out a miracle with this revamp but I'm not even sure Željko could salvage it lmao) then it's possible the televote score might be enough, but I'm scared for it. Definitely borderline.
I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that ::rs fails, but it's got definite jury support and dependable allies. Borderline, but on the upper echelon of borderline.
::sl Slovenia I'm honestly kinda unsure about. I can never really predict how minimalist songs are gonna do, especially coming from Slovenia, who already stands on enough shaky ground year after year as it is. I guess I'm kinda leaning more towards qualification than not, but then that could be my bias because I adore Sebi. omg idk!!!!!!!
I feel like ::au Australia could get left behind. I don't think the chorus, especially the final chorus, is strong enough to leave much of an impression beyond "oh that was ok. next song!", and jurors often place operatic-esque songs lower than the televoters do, and I see them doing the same, even if it's Australia aka JurySlutLandia. It could still qualify, but maybe in 7th or lower.
If Eliot nails the vocals and they get the performance done well, then ::be will make it easily. Otherwise, I wouldn't be as sure, but still fairly likely. Same with ::gr Greece, but if not then I think Katerine will have an uphill battle. Her voice will definitely stand out so I won't rule her out even if the act isn't super duper.
::ee Estonia is cut straight from the Imri Ziv "qualifies decently and come around 22nd in the final" cloth. ::pt Portugal, ::is Iceland and ::hu Hungary are making it easily.

TfuckingL;DfuckingR
Safe: ::cy ::cz ::pt ::is ::hu ::ee
Borderline in order of confidence: ::be ::gr ::rs ::sl ::au ::pl
Dead: ::by ::fi ::sm ::me ::ge

henhu
9th March 2019, 12:14
100%
::be::cy::hu
80%
::gr ::is ::pt
60%
::au::cz::pl::rs
40%
::fi::sm
20%
::ee::sl
0%
::by::ge::me

John1
9th March 2019, 14:49
999% — GLORIFIED
::ua

100% — SAFE*
::cy ::is ::pt
75% — BORDERLINE +
::be ::cz ::ee ::hu ::gr ::sl
50% — BORDERLINE -
::au ::pl ::rs ::sm
25% — ALMOST DEAD
::by ::ge
0% — QUITE DEAD RIGHT NOW :lol:
::fi ::me


* : All of these entries are so different and odd in their own ways that I can't see them as NQs.

Ezio
9th March 2019, 15:09
I will have my eyes on ::pt and ::sl in order to decide between confidence or despair for Paenda.

midnightsun
9th March 2019, 16:33
Qualifier:

::au
::be
::cy
::fi
::ge
::is
::me
::pl
::pt
::rs

BorisBubbles
10th March 2019, 00:06
Okay time for another painstakingly long analysis from yours truly, but I'm generally good at predicting qualifiers (usually I get 8/10 right before rehearsals), so I'm having a crack at it.

A little caveat beforehand: My assessments are based on song quality and the potential it has during staging, with sometimes taking draw into account as well. For internal selections the former two are largely guesswork and therefor ratings may change once the preshow parties/rehearsals have started.

Generally I also use this legenda in my analysis which I will post here for your convenience:

QF: Guaranteed qualifier
BL: Borderline qualifier (I tend to subdivide this in BL+, BL- and BL? depending how advantaged the entry is compared to other BL qualifiers)
NQ: Won't qualify

Anyway, without further ado:


::by ZENA - "Like it"
A pretty bad draw for Belarus, especially now that Ukraine has withdrawn. Belarus only has one friendly country in the SF in Poland and, more poignantly, has never qualified from the first half before, ever! "Like it" is a nice song though with a cute energy spike that should receive a few votes from both televoters and juries, but Zena's lack of experience / good, original song will catch up with her quickly, locking her out of the Grand Final.
Verdict: NQ

::cz Lake Malawi - "Friend of a friend"
Opinions appear divided on Lake Malawi where half appear to enjoy their earworm britpop and the rest find them unbearably irritating. However, despite coming from a pretty unfortunate country, Lake Malawi manage to fill a niche in the semi nobody else does with their cheerful, upbeat sound, which should yield televotes. The problem is juries though. While "Friend of a friend" is radio-friendly, it's doesn't have any exceptional qualities and likely will have very simple (or downright annoying) staging. Personally I think they advance, but if other borderline qualifiers step up their A-game, Czechia may find themselves narrowly missing out on finals.
Verdict: BL+


::cy Tamta - "Replay"
A very credible, if transparent attempt from Cyprus to capitalize on Eleni's success. Shoving my personal qualms about Replay aside, I think what we're looking at is a very fun high energy ride that will appeal to all ages. The one hurdle Tamta really faces is that she is The One That Came After Eleni and therefore always will have the Foureira Wannabe Label attached to her, regardless of whether she deserves it or not (Personally, I don't think it's fair to compare her to Eleni). Tamta will need to work on establishing herself as Tamta, as opposed to the ageing Eleni Clone Europe will perceive her as, or she might choke on her wheels. Still, all signs point towards Tamta being really good live, so qualification itself should not be a problem either way.
Verdict: QF


::fi Darude ft Sebastian Rejman - "Look away"
Of course once Finland announced their participant as ~DARUDE, SANDSTORM~ the entire ESC community went ablaze because the meme power is real, y'all!! ....aaand then Finland revealed three underwhelming, dated EDM songs that could become their entry and the interest instantly evaporated! "Look away'" is the best of the three though, because it has a descernible melody and a Woke Message (which will make an impact of approximately zero but w/e), but things will greatly depend on Sebastian's live vocals and these vocals are, as established by UMK, rather Bad. Finland are definitely on the bubble for qualification as they're looking more like Gromee & Lukas 2.0. A decent draw that pits them between NQ fodder such as Belarus and Montenegro could save them, but right now things are looking very dicey indeed.
Verdict: BL-

::hu Joci Pápai - "Az én apám"
An interesting choice for Hungary, because everyone simply assumes it will qualify, which triggers my PTSD for other Guaranteed Qualifiers which *whoops* NQ'd spectacularly (see: Greta, Verona, Sennek, Jüri, etc). Having said that, while I think "Az én apám" is a much weaker effort than "Origo", Joci should still make it into the final? The basic framework (big name, good voice, pleasant melody) is all there, all Joci really needs is effective staging that takes away most of the song's monotony. If Hungary can get that rolling, Finals will be all but guaranteed.
Verdict: QF

::me D-Moll - "Heaven"
Oh come on, don't be ridiculous.
Verdict: NQ

::pl Tulia - "Fire of Love"
A huge question mark for me. One of the few acts that could really go either way, either just barely scraping by or bombing out entirely. Poland is one of the few countries with a relevant diasporia vote, but such a vote only really matters in cases where the live performance is already strong enough to draw in non-diasporia votes (as painfully demonstrated by all of last year's NQs). One of my friends pointed out that the closest analogy to Tulia is actually Neiokoso (Estonia2004), and I foresee a similar end where they narrowly miss out on finals, possibly after ranking third last with every jury (Montenegro and Serhat will be the B2 with every jury, bank on it).
Verdict: BL-

::rs Nevena Božović - "Kruna"
Serbia is an interesting ESC country from a qualification perspective because they always seem to float between the 9th-11th place range in any semifinal they participate in and this year will be no exception. They have a strong singer in Nevena and loyals allies in Slovenia and Montenegro. Problem is that their entry this year is a Boring Balkan Ballad, at a time where they're no longer popular with the general viewer, as well as the absense of Switzerland and Austria from their Semi, which have a very loyal Serb diasporia. Serbia will have to put in a lot of work into making their song connect with the non-Yugo audience. If they can, they will advance. If they can't (by for instance keeping the Beovizija staging), they will Terzi themselves out of the Grand Final.
Verdict: BL?

::sl Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl - "Sebi"
The main thing holding Slovenia back is the flag. 'Sebi' has already established itself as a massive grower with a solid fanbase, both here and elsewhere on the internet (yours truly's arm reaches quite far), but the question remains: will Zala & Gašper have sufficient on-stage chemistry to ensnare enough televotes at the first listen? It will largely depend on how effective the camerawork is at capturing their body language (which as evidenced by their album cover art and video clip is one of their strengths). Normally, I'd say the song is strong enough to merit qualification, but if anyone in this semi is the Blackbird, it's them.
Verdict: BL+

::au Kate Miller-Heidke - "Zero gravity"
Australia is another difficult to gauge because their success will depend entirely on having an ironclad staging concept, and we know very little about it! It's good that they're doing away with the (at this point very uncreative) Growth Dress gimmick, the song should sell itself. Still, I'm cautiously assigning them to the Borderline group; while staging Zero Gravity correctly is easy enough (especially with a rich broadcaster such as SBS), it's just as easy to fuck it up entirely. Aus WILL advance if they close the semi though. (which I expect them to)
Verdict: BL+

::be Eliot - "Wake up"
This should be an effortless qualification for Belgium, unless Eliot manages to be really bad live. However, being Belgian myself, I can confirm that he isn't and has displayed a very engaging personality in his interviews. RTBF always put a lot of thought into their entries (unlike VRT :-/) and this won't be an exception.
Verdict: QF

::ee Victor Crone - "Storm"
Normally I'd say that Victor would qualify simply based on Swedish White Male Mediocrity, but if last year taught us anything is that nobody is safe if you're not good. Victor has two massive problems: 1) his song is generic crud and 2) he is a limp noodle with Lisa Rinna hair who also cannot sing well. Estonia do have a trump card in their CGI Gimmick, but I still think they'll bomb in the televote, even if they are Christerrigged into a late slot (#15-17). They will be top half with juries though and I think this could be good enough to barely skate by in 10th place if they're feeling generous.
Verdict: BL?

::ge Oto Nemsadze - "Sul tsin iare"
Oto's only advantage is that he has a really powerful voice, but the song... Incoherent in-tune yelling does not make a song, but a very long, pain-staking vocal exercise (TAKE NOTES CROATIA) It's hard to me to judge fairly based on a low-budget performance in what was a low-budget national final, but it all just comes off as weird and not of the Good variety. It's defo staying in the semi based on what we know.
Verdict: NQ

::gr Katerine Duska - "Better love"
Greece are pretty much good at everything, without necessarily excelling at anything, but with a guaranteed 24 points from Cyprus plus a bunch from other countries, including Belgium and Australia, their position should be quite safe. "Better love" screams Midcarder for me, as in 10th-15th place if the finale, if they get there. I've seen enough signals that Katerine will be good live, so I am going to grant them tentative Qualifier status, but with a caveat: pastel pinks are A Choice as far as aesthetics go and if Greece really intend to go down that route and make their staging look like a John Waters cult classic, I will be forced to revoke their QF status :-/
Verdict: QF

::is Hatari - "Hatriđ mun sigra"
Hatred shall prevail, all the way into the final. Lmao, what is there even to analyze? They rule, Europe will love them, as well as the jury btw. If a Eurovision Jury can love Midnight Gold, then can certainly love this one as well. ÁSTIN DEYJA!!
Verdict: QF

::pt Conan Osíris - "Telemóveis"
Conan is just so show-stoppingly weird that there's absolutely no way he won't be getting at least top five with the audience, if not top three. If well done, he should be getting a ton of jury votes as well (though not as much. I expect around 7th place with juries). I can also guarantee you he will be getting Belgium's and France's televoting 12s, due to the combination of Being Good + Diasporiae.
Verdict: QF

::sm Serhat - "Say Na Na Na"
Lol, Serhat will do his usual spiel where he'll scrape together enough points to earn 9th in the televote, while scoring 9 points total in the jury vote. It would be hilarious if he qualified, especially if at the expense of Estonia or Serbia, but let us not kid ourselves. At least he won't substract from anyone's experience :)
Verdict: NQ


in sum:

QF: ::cy, ::hu, ::be, ::gr, ::is, ::pt
BL: ::cz, ::sl, ::au > ::rs, ::ee > ::fi, ::pl
NQ: ::by, ::me, ::ge, ::sm

Mykola
10th March 2019, 11:40
I want ( randomly) ::be ::cy ::ee ::gr ::is ::pl ::pt ::sl http://escunited.com/forum/images/smilies/Czech%20Republic.png ::ge
My prediction (randomly too) ::be ::cy ::is ::gr ::ee ::pt ::sl ::au ::hu ::rs

Ezio
10th March 2019, 17:24
This semifinal is so difficult to predict, although it is the opposite of last year's blood bath. Everyone has a shot.

There are too many songs that I don't like and that don't deserve to go to the Grand Final and that would have been toasted alive last year. But I have to pick.

1st Portugal
2nd Greece
3rd Slovenia
4th Belgium
5th Czechia
6th Australia
7th Iceland
------------------ Borderline
8th Cyprus
9th Serbia
10th Estonia

Wild cards: Finland, Hungary, San Marino
Almost hopeless: Georgia, Montenegro, Belarus, Poland


Hungary's qualifying streak could end this year. This song reminds me of Armenia last year, but Armenia was interesting.

Also Belarus, Poland and Serbia are in a difficult place with their songs and almost no diaspora.

Ukraine would have sailed through this semi.

Australia is not safe neither.

I cross my fingers the most for Slovenia and Portugal. Their songs are totally my cup of tea, but fandom is not overly excited. They deserve the best outcome possible. Especially Slovenia has trouble fulfilling expectations with amazing songs. Also Iceland could crash out spectacularly, because their natural alliance is not around and the song might turn out to be a turn-off.

Cyprus is not safe for me. The song is made of the same plastic but with much less fuego and intrigue. Except for Greece, the only thing that keeps its chances alive is poor competition in this semi.

Kevan1994
11th March 2019, 05:49
Likely: ::be ::gr ::is ::pt ::sl ::cy

Borderline: ::au ::cz ::ee ::fi ::hu ::pl ::rs

Unlikely but have an outside chance: ::sm ::by

Very little chance: ::ge ::me


Basically, the takeaway from this semi (based on song alone rather than staging) is that a lot of countries will be fighting for the final few spots. Should be unpredictable and pretty exciting.

Courtzer
12th March 2019, 21:35
1 ::pt
2 ::gr
3 ::is
4 ::cy
5 ::sl
6 ::be
7 ::rs
8 ::cz
9 ::sm
10 ::au
11 ::ee
12 ::hu
13 ::pl
14 ::fi
15 ::by
16 ::ge
17 ::me

carl1
13th March 2019, 11:31
My opinion who will qualify and who not
Australia - Q - will get decent jury support, naturally. But also very memorable to get better televote score than Isaiah and Jessica
Belarus - NQ - very basic jury unfriendly song, televoters won't compensate for that
Belgium - Q - very well produced = juries will like it. The song is quite unmemorable though, so televoters might have it out of their top 10. Juries will push it through
Cyprus - Q - likely semi winner, nothing more to say here
Czech Republic - Q - fresh and current + great performers and lead singer has a lot of charisma
Estonia - NQ - Will get trashed by the juries as we saw in EL. Victor will need a pimp slot to qualify, then I could see him doing an Imri.
Finland - NQ - pretty nothing song. Darude meme might help sneak over the line though
Georgia - NQ - great vocals, but will do nothing with the public
Greece - Q - juries will prbably love this and they have Cyprus
Hungary - Q - far from Origo, but still decent enough to qualify
Iceland - Q - way too memorable to miss out
Montenegro - NQ - last place
Poland - NQ - diaspora song, unlucky that Poland are missing most of their diaspora countries in this semi, should have been in the 2nd semi
Portugal - Q - same as Iceland
San Marino - NQ - juries will ruin him
Serbia - Q - well sung typical esc ballad, good jury score expected
Slovenia - Q - I'd expect juries to really like this

Sabrewulf238
13th March 2019, 23:49
At the moment I'm thinking...

Qualify (in no particular order): Cyprus, Czech Republic, Greece, Iceland, Portugal, Australia, Slovenia, Estonia, Belgium, Poland

NQ
11th - Hungary
12th - Serbia
13th - Finland
14th - San Marino
15th - Belarus
16th - Montenegro
17th - Georgia

I think Poland is borderline but will slip through. (so 10th for Poland probably)

Romeo
15th March 2019, 22:40
this is a horrible semi :o

0scar
15th March 2019, 22:53
I wonder why people are predicting it sailing through though. I can easily see it failing to qualify, even more when we’ve also got Australia and Portugal in the same semi. At least one and maybe two of them are going to fail I’d say.

heke1988
17th March 2019, 16:44
Likely: ::be ::gr ::il ::pt ::sl

Borderline: ::au ::cy ::cz ::ee ::fi ::hu ::pl ::rs

Unlikely but have an outside chance: ::sm

Very little chance: ::by ::ge ::me


Basically, the takeaway from this semi (based on song alone rather than staging) is that a lot of countries will be fighting for the final few spots. Should be unpredictable and pretty exciting.

Why there is Israel's flag on likely qualifiers, although Israel will go automacially to the grand final? Should it be Iceland's flag?

heke1988
17th March 2019, 16:47
1. Cyprus (Both)
2. Greece (Both)
3. Australia (jury)
4. Portugal (televotes)
5. Serbia (televotes)
6. Belgium (jury)
7. Finland (jury)
8. Estonia (Televotes)
9. Slovenia (Both)
10. Iceland (Televotes)

Kevan1994
18th March 2019, 07:36
heke1988 Sorry! Thanks for catching that. Yeah it’s Iceland :)]

popavapeur
18th March 2019, 12:29
::by ::be ::cy ::gr ::is ::pl ::pt ::sl

fill in the blank : ::cz ::hu

Swedenvision
18th March 2019, 20:52
Very weak semi, hard to predict and all would have problem to qualify in semi 2 to be honest.
But I hope these 8 will qualify, the rest I don't like.

::cy ::gr ::ee ::fi ::be ::by ::rs ::au

Kairit
19th March 2019, 10:12
::au ::be ::cy ::cz ::gr ::is ::pl ::pt ::sm ::sl

lavieenrose
26th March 2019, 08:20
Pretty Set +: This semi is really wide open, but two songs strike me as an extra cut above the rest in terms of qualification likelihood.
::pt ::cy

Pretty Set
::cz ::ee ::is ::sl ::be

Borderline + (C) DaFlo
::pl ::gr ::au

Borderline - (C) DaFlo
::rs ::fi ::hu (this feels like my risk of the lot, but I just don't know if it'll inspire *passion* like Round 1 did. Maybe that'll mean it can make up some jury points on Round 1, but...it's not like it's more *marketable* or like there aren't plenty of songs here to upstage it with the juries.)

Don’t Count Out Figuratively: All of these feel like they'll have a tough road, but they have the kind of personality or concept that may transfer well at a Eurovision performance. Classic cases of this category from years past include both Serbia and Montenegro 2015, Georgia 2016, Croatia 2017, and Ireland 2018. I'd be surprised if more than 1 of the songs I have in this category make it, but I'd be more surprised if none did.
::by ::sm ::ge

Don’t Count Out Literally: Eurovision is a weird thing. You never fully know what's going to happen.
::me

I hate to linger on one of the less fun moments of Eurovision 2019 (lol WHOMST am I fooling?), but it feels like anything in the final of Vidbir 2019 would've slaughtered this semi and made everyone else scatter. Oh well. :(

Alaska49
2nd April 2019, 17:27
this semifinal just got even weirder to predict with the running order and i dare to say there are NO locks anymore. anyone can flop!!!!


with that said, things remain probably likely for ::be::au::cy::pt, i still think ::cz is more likely than people think, and ::gr got a lot closer with this draw. have an actual stage (not a given) and it probably advances. i guess ::is isn't hurt by the draw but i will never be confident because it's already so good to be true that thy are even going lol. i still think ::rs::sl slide through, but the order probably makes things too hard for ::fi::ee, so i change my prediction to ::hu. i wish i could say ::by advances but it still looks unlikely, sadly. ::sm got the huge gift of closing, but i don't think it's enough.


to recap, my current prediction in order of likelihood is now ::be::au::cy::gr::cz::pt::is::sl::rs::hu

Charly
2nd April 2019, 19:53
I think ::sm was the winner in the running order, im pretty sure they could qualify now

Citelis
2nd April 2019, 20:37
After the draw my prediction is something like this:
1. ::pt
2. ::sl
3. ::cz
4. ::be
5. ::is
6. ::cy
7. ::gr
8. ::au
9. ::rs
10. ::ee

anaraqueen
2nd April 2019, 22:11
::pt::is::cy::au::rs::cz::hu::by::fi and of course ::sm

i, for some reason, think that belgium and greece will screw up in the staging AGAIN, and slovenia will be drawfucked

::fi is screwed and i don't know if darumeme will be helpful enough. I'm unsure about ::hu as well... dáddy, bring da dansa

::si wasn't drawfucked at the end so it's in. maybe ::gr as well instead of these two. still think zenair will be a surprise qualifier

BorisBubbles
2nd April 2019, 23:26
My previous post for reference:


Okay time for another painstakingly long analysis from yours truly, but I'm generally good at predicting qualifiers (usually I get 8/10 right before rehearsals), so I'm having a crack at it.

A little caveat beforehand: My assessments are based on song quality and the potential it has during staging, with sometimes taking draw into account as well. For internal selections the former two are largely guesswork and therefor ratings may change once the preshow parties/rehearsals have started.

Generally I also use this legenda in my analysis which I will post here for your convenience:

QF: Guaranteed qualifier
BL: Borderline qualifier (I tend to subdivide this in BL+, BL- and BL? depending how advantaged the entry is compared to other BL qualifiers)
NQ: Won't qualify

Anyway, without further ado:


::by ZENA - "Like it"
A pretty bad draw for Belarus, especially now that Ukraine has withdrawn. Belarus only has one friendly country in the SF in Poland and, more poignantly, has never qualified from the first half before, ever! "Like it" is a nice song though with a cute energy spike that should receive a few votes from both televoters and juries, but Zena's lack of experience / good, original song will catch up with her quickly, locking her out of the Grand Final.
Verdict: NQ

::cz Lake Malawi - "Friend of a friend"
Opinions appear divided on Lake Malawi where half appear to enjoy their earworm britpop and the rest find them unbearably irritating. However, despite coming from a pretty unfortunate country, Lake Malawi manage to fill a niche in the semi nobody else does with their cheerful, upbeat sound, which should yield televotes. The problem is juries though. While "Friend of a friend" is radio-friendly, it's doesn't have any exceptional qualities and likely will have very simple (or downright annoying) staging. Personally I think they advance, but if other borderline qualifiers step up their A-game, Czechia may find themselves narrowly missing out on finals.
Verdict: BL+


::cy Tamta - "Replay"
A very credible, if transparent attempt from Cyprus to capitalize on Eleni's success. Shoving my personal qualms about Replay aside, I think what we're looking at is a very fun high energy ride that will appeal to all ages. The one hurdle Tamta really faces is that she is The One That Came After Eleni and therefore always will have the Foureira Wannabe Label attached to her, regardless of whether she deserves it or not (Personally, I don't think it's fair to compare her to Eleni). Tamta will need to work on establishing herself as Tamta, as opposed to the ageing Eleni Clone Europe will perceive her as, or she might choke on her wheels. Still, all signs point towards Tamta being really good live, so qualification itself should not be a problem either way.
Verdict: QF


::fi Darude ft Sebastian Rejman - "Look away"
Of course once Finland announced their participant as ~DARUDE, SANDSTORM~ the entire ESC community went ablaze because the meme power is real, y'all!! ....aaand then Finland revealed three underwhelming, dated EDM songs that could become their entry and the interest instantly evaporated! "Look away'" is the best of the three though, because it has a descernible melody and a Woke Message (which will make an impact of approximately zero but w/e), but things will greatly depend on Sebastian's live vocals and these vocals are, as established by UMK, rather Bad. Finland are definitely on the bubble for qualification as they're looking more like Gromee & Lukas 2.0. A decent draw that pits them between NQ fodder such as Belarus and Montenegro could save them, but right now things are looking very dicey indeed.
Verdict: BL-

::hu Joci Pápai - "Az én apám"
An interesting choice for Hungary, because everyone simply assumes it will qualify, which triggers my PTSD for other Guaranteed Qualifiers which *whoops* NQ'd spectacularly (see: Greta, Verona, Sennek, Jüri, etc). Having said that, while I think "Az én apám" is a much weaker effort than "Origo", Joci should still make it into the final? The basic framework (big name, good voice, pleasant melody) is all there, all Joci really needs is effective staging that takes away most of the song's monotony. If Hungary can get that rolling, Finals will be all but guaranteed.
Verdict: QF

::me D-Moll - "Heaven"
Oh come on, don't be ridiculous.
Verdict: NQ

::pl Tulia - "Fire of Love"
A huge question mark for me. One of the few acts that could really go either way, either just barely scraping by or bombing out entirely. Poland is one of the few countries with a relevant diasporia vote, but such a vote only really matters in cases where the live performance is already strong enough to draw in non-diasporia votes (as painfully demonstrated by all of last year's NQs). One of my friends pointed out that the closest analogy to Tulia is actually Neiokoso (Estonia2004), and I foresee a similar end where they narrowly miss out on finals, possibly after ranking third last with every jury (Montenegro and Serhat will be the B2 with every jury, bank on it).
Verdict: BL-

::rs Nevena Božović - "Kruna"
Serbia is an interesting ESC country from a qualification perspective because they always seem to float between the 9th-11th place range in any semifinal they participate in and this year will be no exception. They have a strong singer in Nevena and loyals allies in Slovenia and Montenegro. Problem is that their entry this year is a Boring Balkan Ballad, at a time where they're no longer popular with the general viewer, as well as the absense of Switzerland and Austria from their Semi, which have a very loyal Serb diasporia. Serbia will have to put in a lot of work into making their song connect with the non-Yugo audience. If they can, they will advance. If they can't (by for instance keeping the Beovizija staging), they will Terzi themselves out of the Grand Final.
Verdict: BL?

::sl Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl - "Sebi"
The main thing holding Slovenia back is the flag. 'Sebi' has already established itself as a massive grower with a solid fanbase, both here and elsewhere on the internet (yours truly's arm reaches quite far), but the question remains: will Zala & Gašper have sufficient on-stage chemistry to ensnare enough televotes at the first listen? It will largely depend on how effective the camerawork is at capturing their body language (which as evidenced by their album cover art and video clip is one of their strengths). Normally, I'd say the song is strong enough to merit qualification, but if anyone in this semi is the Blackbird, it's them.
Verdict: BL+

::au Kate Miller-Heidke - "Zero gravity"
Australia is another difficult to gauge because their success will depend entirely on having an ironclad staging concept, and we know very little about it! It's good that they're doing away with the (at this point very uncreative) Growth Dress gimmick, the song should sell itself. Still, I'm cautiously assigning them to the Borderline group; while staging Zero Gravity correctly is easy enough (especially with a rich broadcaster such as SBS), it's just as easy to fuck it up entirely. Aus WILL advance if they close the semi though. (which I expect them to)
Verdict: BL+

::be Eliot - "Wake up"
This should be an effortless qualification for Belgium, unless Eliot manages to be really bad live. However, being Belgian myself, I can confirm that he isn't and has displayed a very engaging personality in his interviews. RTBF always put a lot of thought into their entries (unlike VRT :-/) and this won't be an exception.
Verdict: QF

::ee Victor Crone - "Storm"
Normally I'd say that Victor would qualify simply based on Swedish White Male Mediocrity, but if last year taught us anything is that nobody is safe if you're not good. Victor has two massive problems: 1) his song is generic crud and 2) he is a limp noodle with Lisa Rinna hair who also cannot sing well. Estonia do have a trump card in their CGI Gimmick, but I still think they'll bomb in the televote, even if they are Christerrigged into a late slot (#15-17). They will be top half with juries though and I think this could be good enough to barely skate by in 10th place if they're feeling generous.
Verdict: BL?

::ge Oto Nemsadze - "Sul tsin iare"
Oto's only advantage is that he has a really powerful voice, but the song... Incoherent in-tune yelling does not make a song, but a very long, pain-staking vocal exercise (TAKE NOTES CROATIA) It's hard to me to judge fairly based on a low-budget performance in what was a low-budget national final, but it all just comes off as weird and not of the Good variety. It's defo staying in the semi based on what we know.
Verdict: NQ

::gr Katerine Duska - "Better love"
Greece are pretty much good at everything, without necessarily excelling at anything, but with a guaranteed 24 points from Cyprus plus a bunch from other countries, including Belgium and Australia, their position should be quite safe. "Better love" screams Midcarder for me, as in 10th-15th place if the finale, if they get there. I've seen enough signals that Katerine will be good live, so I am going to grant them tentative Qualifier status, but with a caveat: pastel pinks are A Choice as far as aesthetics go and if Greece really intend to go down that route and make their staging look like a John Waters cult classic, I will be forced to revoke their QF status :-/
Verdict: QF

::is Hatari - "Hatriđ mun sigra"
Hatred shall prevail, all the way into the final. Lmao, what is there even to analyze? They rule, Europe will love them, as well as the jury btw. If a Eurovision Jury can love Midnight Gold, then can certainly love this one as well. ÁSTIN DEYJA!!
Verdict: QF

::pt Conan Osíris - "Telemóveis"
Conan is just so show-stoppingly weird that there's absolutely no way he won't be getting at least top five with the audience, if not top three. If well done, he should be getting a ton of jury votes as well (though not as much. I expect around 7th place with juries). I can also guarantee you he will be getting Belgium's and France's televoting 12s, due to the combination of Being Good + Diasporiae.
Verdict: QF

::sm Serhat - "Say Na Na Na"
Lol, Serhat will do his usual spiel where he'll scrape together enough points to earn 9th in the televote, while scoring 9 points total in the jury vote. It would be hilarious if he qualified, especially if at the expense of Estonia or Serbia, but let us not kid ourselves. At least he won't substract from anyone's experience :)
Verdict: NQ


in sum:

QF: ::cy, ::hu, ::be, ::gr, ::is, ::pt
BL: ::cz, ::sl, ::au > ::rs, ::ee > ::fi, ::pl
NQ: ::by, ::me, ::ge, ::sm


The only really big changes I see are as follows:
- ::fi downgrades to NQ: crap draw and an unmemorable song can only carry you as far for an Unlucky Nation such as Finland
- ::ee & ::au downgrade from BL+ to BL-: Mediocre draws and questionable songs: both countries need to be ON POINT with vocals and staging respectively in order to advance safely.
- ::sm upgrades from NQ to BL-: it's still damn' unlikely to me, but any country in the last position has a better shot at getting those televotes (something Serhat should be good at to begin with)
- ::by upgrades from NQ to BL+: It really just is an excellent draw, right between two tepid ballads.
- ::rs and ::hu downgrade to BL-: I've a feeling one of them is going to NQ, and I'm not sure which one it is (I actually *think* it's Hungary :o)
- ::be downgrade from QF to BL+ due to a mediocre televoting draw.

Other remain where they are.

Independently from all of this, I've also downgraded ::pt to BL+ because I've realized that "Telemoveis"'s highbrow artistry might fly over the heads of many casuals. (Conan's draw is pretty good though.)

In sum:
QF: ::cy, ::gr, ::is
BL+: ::be, ::by, ::cz, ::pl, ::pt, ::sl,
BL-: ::au, ::ee, ::hu, ::rs, ::sm
NQ: ::fi, ::ge ::me,

Personal predictions (02/04): Cyprus, Greece, Iceland, Belgium, Poland, Slovenia, Portugal, Serbia, Czech Republic and Australia (because one BL+ song always NQs and while I LOOOOOVE Zena she's totally the Suzy in this scenario lol.)

lavieenrose
3rd April 2019, 00:53
Updating mine in light of the running order:

Fighting for the Semi Win
::be ::cy ::cz ::pt (why is no one talking about ::cz as a draw beneficiary? It's aiming for the same votes ::sl is but w/more tempo & I think is sitting extremely pretty now)
Pretty Set
::au ::ee ::is
Definitely Hurt By The Draw But I Think Can Figure It Out Anyway
::sl
Borderline +
::by ::pl
Borderline -
::gr ::sm (I couldn't quite pull the trigger. Almost did. I'm sure I will after thinking more about it.)
Don’t Count Out Figuratively
::ge ::rs ::hu (my pessimism about Hungary's chances truly knows no bounds, but the draw wasn't a big help in convincing me that it'll stand out.)
Don’t Count Out Literally
::fi (AWFUL running order for it) ::me

EDIT: "I don't think the draw was a big help in convincing me" is redundant.

GRE
3rd April 2019, 08:11
https://media.giphy.com/media/XHI5XQjoZwMMg/giphy.gif

JamieBrown
3rd April 2019, 10:49
After the draw release I'm going with these...

::au::by::be::cy::cz::gr::hu::is::pl::pt

Biggest chances to replace someone from the first half entries (mentioning Belarus) or Greece
::sm::sl

Maybe surprising me
::rs

The rest is dead most probably

GermanBango
3rd April 2019, 13:43
The moment no one everyone has been waiting for has arrived - My annual voting calculation/prediction is here :lol:
Jury votes are based on: Voting Patterns of each country > Odds > Polls
Televoting is based on: Polls > Voting patterns > Youtube views > Odds
Doesn`t say that much but could give us a little direction or something like that.


Juries
https://i.imgur.com/y6LPMir.png

Televoting
https://i.imgur.com/k7xOVuf.png

Combined
https://i.imgur.com/wYW1YYJ.png

Gitte
3rd April 2019, 13:49
It surprises me everyone is so sure Belgium is gonna qualify. Remember last year? And 'a matter fo time' was a hardcore favourite before.

That semifinal was a bloodbath of course, but I still wouldn't be too sure.

GRE
3rd April 2019, 13:54
GermanBango, I am a statistic freak, so I always enjoy reading this kind of analysis. :)
Thank you for sharing.

Realest
3rd April 2019, 14:51
::sm uses an AVG-TV. Theres no way that ::cy gets only 6 Points from ::sm if 80% of all Countries have ::cy in the Top3.
Therefore also ::aus 8 Points are senseless.
::rs will definitely not only give 5 and 6 to ::me and ::hu.

DaFlo
3rd April 2019, 17:23
We all know predicting at this point is pointless cuz rehearsals gon switch things around

That being said


::cy ::me ::cz ::hu ::rs ::be ::au ::is ::gr ::sm

Alaska49
4th April 2019, 04:59
It surprises me everyone is so sure Belgium is gonna qualify. Remember last year? And 'a matter fo time' was a hardcore favourite before.

That semifinal was a bloodbath of course, but I still wouldn't be too sure.i'd be very hesitant if it was VRT, but in RTBF i trust. three stellar jobs in a row recently.

Citelis
4th April 2019, 16:22
Belgium will qualify easily because there not many strong entries in this semi-final so even 8th or 9th Belgium will qualify!

nofuxCZ
4th April 2019, 16:26
Belgium will qualify easily because there not many strong entries in this semi-final so even 8th or 9th Belgium will qualify!

Is Belgium strong though? I find the chorus quite weak and Belgium coming after Serbia.... not sure if Belgium can stand out after it.

Zonne147
4th April 2019, 16:29
Belgium will qualify easily because there not many strong entries in this semi-final so even 8th or 9th Belgium will qualify!

Belgium is my bet for the biggest flop of this semi.

The live and the staging need to be good, otherwise it may not qualify. I feel this is less appealing than some songs that are lower in odds, like Czech Rep or San Marino, or even Serbia that is performing before.

It can easily happen with Eliot what happened with Sennek last year. It will depend on many things...

Citelis
4th April 2019, 18:19
Belgium is my bet for the biggest flop of this semi.

The live and the staging need to be good, otherwise it may not qualify. I feel this is less appealing than some songs that are lower in odds, like Czech Rep or San Marino, or even Serbia that is performing before.

It can easily happen with Eliot what happened with Sennek last year. It will depend on many things...


Is Belgium strong though? I find the chorus quite weak and Belgium coming after Serbia.... not sure if Belgium can stand out after it.

Of course Belgium's song is not strong but in the 1st semi-final looks a safe qualifier! If Belgium was in the 2nd semi-final i would be almost sure that it would flop and fail to qualify but in the 1st semi-final i believe they really need to ruin everything on the staging to be a NQ!

Milos-BC
4th April 2019, 22:08
I predict the following 10 (before the rehearsals, that is):

::au
::be
::cy
::cz
::ee
::gr
::hu
::is
::pt
::rs


I would like the following to qualify:

::au
::be
::cy
::ee
::fi
::gr
::is
::pt
::sl
::rs

BorisBubbles
5th April 2019, 08:46
Is Belgium strong though? I find the chorus quite weak and Belgium coming after Serbia.... not sure if Belgium can stand out after it.

Eliot just performed on MNM (a flemish radio station) and nailed every note. He's definitely qualifying for the final. He could be top ten with the right visual support.

Also coming after Kruna isn't a problem because Kruna is kind of a nothing lol.

Kaz
5th April 2019, 14:04
I really do think ::sm might slip through! The running order just made this semi a whole lot more ambiguous - ::fi::pl::cz::hu::by::rs::be::ee::pt::sm are all kind of borderline IMO; the only real locked qualifiers to me are Cyprus, Slovenia, Australia, Iceland, and Greece.

I do think the final qualifiers will be: ::cy::sl::cz::hu::rs::au::is::pt::gr::sm

anaraqueen
6th April 2019, 21:01
::pt::is::cy::au::rs::cz::hu::by::fi and of course ::sm

i, for some reason, think that belgium and greece will screw up in the staging AGAIN, and slovenia will be drawfucked

somehow my first prediction might be the real results???????????

we just need to see if dead couple will survive instead of darumeme feat. handsome guy with not handsome vocals

Himan
7th April 2019, 03:47
I now have

::au I'm actually not that sure about it... But everybody is...
::be He doesn't know which volume to sing.
::cy easy qualifier
::gr easy qualifier 2
::hu televotes televotes
::is the strange song
::pl televotes? Not totally sure
::pt strange song v2
::rs slaying vocals
::sl moody slow song.



This SF has more songs with a niche, not a lot of radio friendly stuff.

Zonne147
2nd May 2019, 08:55
::pt ::cy ::au ::is ::cz ::rs ::hu ::sl ::gr ::be (or ::ee instead of ::be) with ::sm coming really close in 12th

Agui
2nd May 2019, 09:24
Not in a specific order:
Cyprus, Iceland, Portugal, Greece, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovenia, Australia, Estonia, Hungary.

Realest
2nd May 2019, 12:57
Final Prediction before the Rehearsals:

01 ::pt
02 ::cy
03 ::is
04 ::au
05 ::hu
06 ::sl
07 ::cz
08 ::gr
09 ::by
10 ::rs
11 ::ee
12 ::be
13 ::sm
14 ::pl
15 ::me
16 ::ge
17 ::fi

Agui
2nd May 2019, 14:55
Final Prediction before the Rehearsals:

01 ::pt
02 ::cy
03 ::is
04 ::au
05 ::hu
06 ::sl
07 ::cz
08 ::gr
09 ::by
10 ::rs
11 ::ee
12 ::be
13 ::sm
14 ::pl
15 ::me
16 ::ge
17 ::fi
I think Greece will win the semifinal and Cyprus will be close. I don't believe Portugal will be so lucky.

Citelis
2nd May 2019, 15:40
Greece cannot semifinal win because juries will place us outside top 5 for sure. Portugal, Iceland or even Cyprus can win the semifinal.

Zonne147
2nd May 2019, 15:44
Greece cannot semifinal win because juries will place us outside top 5 for sure. Portugal, Iceland or even Cyprus can win the semifinal.

I think it's impossible to predict the winner!! But my bet is Greece atm though, imo Greece has good chances to finish both Top 3 in jury vote and televote...

Rehearsals will make it easier to predict!!

Citelis
2nd May 2019, 16:03
I think it's impossible to predict the winner!! But my bet is Greece atm though, imo Greece has good chances to finish both Top 3 in jury vote and televote...

Rehearsals will make it easier to predict!!

I see many people who predict Greece as winner of semifinal. I know that we could get 1st on televoting but i doubt about juries. Rehearsals of course will make it clear who will qualify and who will not.

blue00eyes
2nd May 2019, 22:08
My prediction

01 ::cy
02 ::pt
03 ::gr
04 ::au
05 ::is
06 ::sl
07 ::ee
08 ::fi
09 ::hu
10 ::cz
11 ::rs
12 ::sm
13 ::pl
14 ::by
15 ::me
16 ::be
17 ::ge

nofuxCZ
2nd May 2019, 23:25
Honestly, I can see Greece NQ. Not sure if it can get enough televote support, honestly I don't get the hype. Maybe that's just me though :)
There are surprises every year so for sure some of the "certain" qualifiers won't make it.

Jukica
2nd May 2019, 23:29
My prediction before the rehearsals:


Greece ::gr
Cyprus ::cy
Australia ::au
Portugal ::pt
Czech Republic ::cz
Iceland ::is
Serbia ::rs
Slovenia ::sl
Hungary ::hu
Poland ::pl
San Marino ::sm (possble qualifier who will depend on jury, televoting TOP10 for sure, especially since he was 11th in televoting with much weaker song)
Belgium ::be
Estonia ::ee
Finland ::fi
Belarus ::by
Montenegro ::me
Georgia ::ge

blue00eyes
3rd May 2019, 11:02
Honestly, I can see Greece NQ. Not sure if it can get enough televote support, honestly I don't get the hype. Maybe that's just me though :)
There are surprises every year so for sure some of the "certain" qualifiers won't make it.
I've put ::gr so high because anyone else do so + bookmakers..[same with Slovenia]. Last year I predicted Yianna's flop and I am also worried this time, everything depends on live performance. They can qualify whit shit one though (::gr 2017)

Citelis
3rd May 2019, 12:13
I still don't get how everyone feels so sure that we will come first in the semi. Portugal, Cyrpus, Belgium, Czech Reppublic, Australia, Iceland, Belarus, Hungury, Serbia, Estonia will get more votes from juries than Greece. We need to be top 3 on televoting in order to qualify.

EvNickGR
3rd May 2019, 13:52
^Wait for the rehearsals and shows guys... We will know soon! 8-) Citelis Greece has one of the best songs this year (modern, current, strong voice, western sound) and if the game is fair we have to be on top 3 on Juries.

Citelis
3rd May 2019, 15:01
I hope im wrong on everything i have predicted so far. Rehearsals are close and the rumors about Greek staging are more than promising so far.

Serena00
3rd May 2019, 18:48
Before rehearsals

Sure qualifiers: Iceland, Greece, Cyprus, Slovenia

Sure NQ: Montenegro, Belarus

I think everyone else has a chance

VikingTiger
3rd May 2019, 21:46
My guess before the rehearsals (no particular order):

::be::cy::cz::gr::hu::is::pl::pt::sl::rs

Citelis
3rd May 2019, 22:30
Final prediction before rehearsals

1. ::pt 2. ::cy 3. ::is 4. ::be 5. ::au 6. ::ee 7. ::rs 8. ::sl 9. ::cz 10. ::hu 11. ::gr 12. ::by 13. ::sm 14. ::pl 15. ::ge 16. ::fi 17. ::me

Lets hope that im totally wrong :lol:

Citelis
3rd May 2019, 23:02
deleted

BorisBubbles
3rd May 2019, 23:18
Alright, predictions as of 3 May:

OUT:

::me - There's absolutely nothing good about this lol.
::ge - Confusing song, forgettable despite featuring very strong vocals
::sm - I will spare myself the embarassment of publicly admitting Serhat has a shot, when he inevitably NQs in 14th place.
::by - Feels like a Suzy, will have impressive rehearsals and gain popularity but no traction
::fi - Leaves absolutely no impact, Darude faces are about as 'funny' as Gromee's ~SnEkDeNz~

ONE or the other deals (BL)
::rs/::hu - underwhelming returnee ballads, the pair of them, definitely more of a tradition televote entry sort. Hard to say which one stays in the semi (ideally, both, over Zena :) )
::ee/::be - vie for the jury & fangirl vote, both are fairly listless performers and I'd say one of them get's AISEL'd out and the other finishes bottom 3 in the finale.

IN:

::is - absolutely WILL win this semifinal
::cy, - while i don't expect Replay to impress, they should do reasonably well in the semi, qualifying in 6th-7th place
::cz - a song so irritating it becomes endearing in a way. the only argument against it, is its flag.
::au - KMH is way too good to miss out on finals, opera has a 100% qualification record, including for usually Not Safe countries such as Slovenia and Estonia.
::gr - will be a trainwreck, but katherine is vocally strong enough to carry them to the finale, where they'll finish in 23rd place
::sl - potential for off-the-charts levels of chemistry if they make it work (and why shouldn't they)
::pl - Vocally impressive, interviews hint at trippy staging
::pt - largely wishful thinking, but Conan could possibly fit both the Saara type (early runaway fave who falls out of favour for some reason and Qs by a narrow, narrow margin) AND the Tinkara/Demy type (Obvious 10th place qualifier who just as obviously finishes bottom 6 in the finale)

DaFlo
3rd May 2019, 23:21
Can't wait for the glorious night of Montenegro qualifying

All Love

Alaska49
4th May 2019, 04:37
FINAL PREDICTIONS BEFORE REHEARSALS. in my perception, after rehearsals all predictions become invalid. it's way too easy to guess all 10 or at least 9 qualifiers after rehearsals.

anyway i have been convinced tulia have enough appealing qualities to qualify god help me please i am breaking my own heart possibly. i have to choose between joci and nevena to die in their place probably, since i have always thought victor has very little chance and still do, and i will go with joci dying. someone will surprise us in this semi anyway. I WILL GO WITH ::au::gr::cy::be::cz::is::pt::sl::pl::rs.

Kaz
4th May 2019, 13:36
My final prediction before rehearsals (haven't seen any yet):

1. ::gr Greece
2. ::cy Cyprus
3. ::is Iceland
4. ::au Australia
5. ::pt Portugal
6. ::sl Slovenia
7. ::rs Serbia
8. ::sm San Marino
9. ::cz Czechia
10. ::hu Hungary
11. ::fi Finland
12. ::be Belgium
13. ::ee Estonia
14. ::by Belarus
15. ::pl Poland
16. ::me Montenegro
17. ::ge Georgia

opinionsigotem
4th May 2019, 14:24
::cy::pl::sl::cz::be::au::is::ee::pt::gr

Zonne147
5th May 2019, 16:30
After 1st rehearsals, I changed my mind:

Finally I can point a winner!!

Winner: ::gr
Safe ones: ::cy ::au ::is ::cz
Almost safe: ::rs ::sl ::hu
Will fight for the other 2 spots: ::be ::ee ::pt ::pl ::ge
Unlikely: ::sm ::by
Almost impossible to: ::fi ::me

Overall: I think this is a weak semi and it seems there are 8 songs that may look safe. ::au and ::ge were the best surprises for me

EscGeek
5th May 2019, 16:40
my prediction:

9 safe spots
::cy ::sl::hu::rs::ge::au::is::gr::sm

1 remaining spot is between:
::fi::by::pt

Maybe I'll narrow it down in the following days

BorisBubbles
5th May 2019, 17:00
my only change is that I now have Estonia in over Belgium. Rehearsals answered the questions I had about Australia and Greece very satisfactorily, can't wait to see them in two weeks. xheart

Citelis
5th May 2019, 17:07
First impression after first rehearsal!

Safe: ::au ::rs ::is ::cy ::cz
Borderline: ::gr ::pt ::be ::ee ::sl ::ge ::hu ::by
NQ: ::fi ::me ::pl ::sm

VirginiaVision
5th May 2019, 17:23
My (metaphorical) money is on:
::cy Replay
::sl Sebi
::cz Friend of a Friend
::hu Az én apám
::rs Kruna
::au Zero Gravity
::is Hatriđ mun sigra
::ee Storm
::pt Telemóveis
::gr Better Love

Serena00
5th May 2019, 17:24
I think Poland and San Marino are borderline too

Ezio
5th May 2019, 20:56
1st Australia
2nd Greece
3rd Portugal
4th Slovenia
5th Czech Republic
6th Belarus
7th Cyprus
8th San Marino
9th Iceland
10th Serbia
-------------------
11th Estonia
12th Hungary
13th Poland
14th Belgium
15th Finland
16th Georgia
17th Montenegro

heke1988
5th May 2019, 22:04
San Marino should be around top 5 in televote rank, if they had a chance to qualify. I am quite sure, San Marino will be ranked around 14-15 in jury rank.

EscTurkey
6th May 2019, 15:53
Hands down qualifying, I'd scream my lungs out if one of them doesn't qualify:
::cy Cyprus
::au Australia
::is Iceland
::gr Greece (SEMI WINNER <3 )
::rs Serbia

The rest:
::cz Czech Republic
::sm San Marino
::by Belarus
::hu Hungary
::ee Estonia

My heart hurts to say this but I predict ::sl to NQ, cuz it doesn't look very accessible to average viewers and juries.
but then my predictions often fail miserably bad, somehow especially in first semis.
so don't trust my estimation

Mrvn
6th May 2019, 17:24
01 ::gr
02 ::cy
03 ::is
04 ::rs
05 ::pl
06 ::by
07 ::be
08 ::hu
09 ::au
10 ::sm

ESCREGION
6th May 2019, 23:05
My prediction:
01 ::cy
02 ::au
03 ::gr
04 ::is
05 ::cz
06 ::sl
07 ::rs
08 ::pt
09 ::ge
10 ::by

DaFlo
7th May 2019, 19:50
This the fan service semi. Lowkey tragic comprared to semi 2s bloodbath.

Safe
::cy ::cz ::rs ::au ::gr

Borderline +
::sl ::hu ::by ::ge ::is

Borderline -
::pl ::be ::ee ::pt

Out
::fi

Will give it's final place up because it already won our hearts
::me ::sm

Citelis
7th May 2019, 20:29
Final prediction before rehearsals

1. ::pt 2. ::cy 3. ::is 4. ::be 5. ::au 6. ::ee 7. ::rs 8. ::sl 9. ::cz 10. ::hu 11. ::gr 12. ::by 13. ::sm 14. ::pl 15. ::ge 16. ::fi 17. ::me

Lets hope that im totally wrong :lol:

That was the alst prediction BEFORE rehearsals. Only change may needed here is that ::pt will be way lower than 1st place and ::cz higher than 9th.

GlamSIMorous
8th May 2019, 07:28
My predicted qualifiers:

::cy
::pl
::sl
::cz
::hu
::rs
::ge
::au
::is
::pt

I somehow see a shcoking non qualification for Greence, Estonia and Belgium which would suck. I would put Belarus in there as well.

BorisBubbles
8th May 2019, 12:00
after the first rehearsal:

QF: ::cy // ::sl // ::cz // ::au // ::is // ::gr
BL: ::pl // ::hu // ::rs // ::ee // ::pt
NQ: ::me // ::fi //::by // ::be // ::sm

GermanBango
8th May 2019, 12:27
Updated my prediction/simulation with the impact of the first rehearsals :lol:
Enjoy some numbers haha ... or maybe not.

Jury Voting
https://i.ibb.co/vQDmKVB/jury1.png

Televoting
https://i.ibb.co/6vx0Yhg/Tele1.png

Combined
https://i.ibb.co/p34m3bF/overall1.png

simonPL
8th May 2019, 13:39
Based on recap of 1st semi on YT/esc, for me it looks like:

99%
Belgium
Slovenia
Greece
Serbia

More yes than no:
Hungary
Poland
Georgia
Belarus
Iceland
Australia
----------------------------
Maybe baby:
Cyrpus
Czechia

Nope:
San Marino
Estonia
Portugal
Montenegro
Finland

Bold ones - I want them in the final and like them personally.
Australia for me is a joke, she can sing, but ughhh, hope it will fail. This is not a circus.
Iceland and Portugal can be too weird for the audience and juries.
Georgia is not fav by fans as I can see but I can see it qualifies as well, because of his voice.
Finland is the worst (but last year Finland was bad af too and it qualified, so maybe...)

Mainshow
8th May 2019, 16:35
I did vote for
Estonia, Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Serbia, Slovenia, Iceland, Czech Republic, Australia.
...based on the first rehearsal.

Personally, I would like to see Belgium, Georgia, Portugal qualify instead of Australia, Estonia and the Czech Republic (due to the horrible vocals).

Agui
8th May 2019, 23:06
Based on recap of 1st semi on YT/esc, for me it looks like:

99%
Belgium
Slovenia
Greece
Serbia

More yes than no:
Hungary
Poland
Georgia
Belarus
Iceland
Australia
----------------------------
Maybe baby:
Cyrpus
Czechia

Nope:
San Marino
Estonia
Portugal
Montenegro
Finland

Bold ones - I want them in the final and like them personally.
Australia for me is a joke, she can sing, but ughhh, hope it will fail. This is not a circus.
Iceland and Portugal can be too weird for the audience and juries.
Georgia is not fav by fans as I can see but I can see it qualifies as well, because of his voice.
Finland is the worst (but last year Finland was bad af too and it qualified, so maybe...)

I can't really see Belgium qualifying... and never with 99% probability...

simonPL
9th May 2019, 19:16
I can't really see Belgium qualifying... and never with 99% probability...

Well, today's TV snippets a little bit could change my ranking, e.g. Australia (which I am not a fan of) looks really great on screens. I still think that Belgium can do it even with those drums.

Good news for Poland: in this semi this is the first good performance - Cyprus, Montenegro and Finland are really weak. Czech Rep. as well and a little bit uncomfortable IMO.

Jukica
9th May 2019, 20:28
My prediction before the rehearsals:


Greece ::gr
Cyprus ::cy
Australia ::au
Portugal ::pt
Czech Republic ::cz
Iceland ::is
Serbia ::rs
Slovenia ::sl
Hungary ::hu
Poland ::pl
San Marino ::sm (possble qualifier who will depend on jury, televoting TOP10 for sure, especially since he was 11th in televoting with much weaker song)
Belgium ::be
Estonia ::ee
Finland ::fi
Belarus ::by
Montenegro ::me
Georgia ::ge


Updating my list:

Greece ::gr
Australia ::au
Cyprus ::cy
Serbia ::rs
Iceland ::is
Hungary ::hu
Czech Republic ::cz
Slovenia ::sl
Georgia ::ge
Poland ::pl
San Marino ::sm
Belgium ::be
Portugal ::pt
Belarus ::by
Estonia ::ee
Finland ::fi
Montenegro ::me


Jury TOP 5:
1. Australia
2. Greece
3. Serbia
4. Czech Republic
5. Cyprus

Televoting TOP 5:
1. Cyprus
2. Greece
3. Iceland
4. Australia
5. Hungary

Will give final prediction after all 2nd rehearsals :D But:
- I am 99% sure that Montenegro will be last
- Czech Republic will get their 2nd best result ever (I can see this around 12th - 15th place in the final)
- Unfortunately I think that Belgium will get lost between Serbia and Georgia, I think that it will be a qualifier by juries and non-qualifier by televoting
- Portugal will flop, Georgia will be dark horse

EscGeek
11th May 2019, 21:01
Prediction 2.0. xthink

9
::cy::sl::hu::rs::ge::au::is::gr::sm

+1 of ::fi/::ee

ESCREGION
12th May 2019, 13:38
Μy ranking (before) and after 2nd rehearsal's snippet

1) ::gr (+1)
2) ::cy (-1)
3) ::by (---)
4) ::hu (---)
5) ::cz (+2)
6) ::ee (+2)
7) ::pt (-2)
8) ::fi (-2)
9) ::pl (+4)
10) ::rs (+1)
11) ::au (+3)
12) ::me (---)
13) ::sm (-4)
14) ::ge (+1)
15) ::be (-5)
16) ::sl (---)
17) ::is (---)

My prediction of qualifiers

::cy
::gr
::cz
::au
::is
::hu
::rs
::pl
::sl
::by

blue00eyes
12th May 2019, 14:09
My prediction

01 ::cy
02 ::pt
03 ::gr
04 ::au
05 ::is
06 ::sl
07 ::ee
08 ::fi
09 ::hu
10 ::cz
11 ::rs
12 ::sm
13 ::pl
14 ::by
15 ::me
16 ::be
17 ::ge
Well, after rehearsals .. But I still don't know
1. Australia 2. Greece 3. Cyprus 4. Portugal 5. Hungary 6. Iceland 7. Serbia 8. San Marino 9. Finland 10. Slovenia////
11. Poland 12. Estonia 13. Georgia 14. Czech Republic 15. Belgium 16. Montenegro 17. Belarus

Anna1974
12th May 2019, 17:49
Q-Greece, Cyprus, Australia, Iceland, Servia, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Czech R.

MyHeartIsYours
13th May 2019, 02:09
My favourite > least favourite

Qualifiers:
::be ::gr ::by ::pl ::cy ::me ::is ::rs ::ee ::hu

Non-qualifiers:
::cz ::sl ::au ::fi ::ge ::sm ::pt

John1
13th May 2019, 18:54
::cy ::gr ::sl ::pl ::by ::cz ::is ::au ::rs ::hu

Chorizo
14th May 2019, 00:46
::is::au::be::pt::sl::cz::hu::gr::cy::pl

SwedishFailurez
14th May 2019, 07:17
1st Australia
2nd Greece
3rd Iceland
4th Serbia
5th Georgia
6th Cyprus
7th Slovenia
8th Czech Republic
9th Poland
10th Portugal

ati0111
14th May 2019, 10:19
1. ::au
2. ::gr
3. ::cy
4. ::is
5. ::cz
6. ::sl
7. ::rs
8. ::hu
9. ::pl
10. ::pt

11. ::ee
12. ::be
13. ::ge
14. ::sm
15. ::by
16. ::fi
17. ::me

BorisBubbles
14th May 2019, 10:52
okay, locking in my final predictions before the show:

Qualifiers: ::pl, ::sl, ::cz, ::hu, ::by, ::rs, ::ge, ::au, ::is, ::gr

NQs: ::cy, ::me, ::fi, ::be, ::ee, ::pt, ::sm

I am going to be bold and put Cyprus as an NQ. Not because I want it to happen (I do, but that's not why she's there), not because I think it'll happen (head says Belarus will NQ instead), but because Cyprus haven't done anything but barraging us with disappointment upon disappointment and if there's ANY karmic justice in this world, it will end up with a delicious juicy shock NQ come the evening. I don't think i'll happen, but I #DareToDream.

Also I think both Conan and ZalaGasper could advance but they're my faves and lol I know the qualification rate of my faves. I'm never getting both :sob:

Citelis
14th May 2019, 11:22
FINAL PREDICTION
Qualifiers: ::rs ::au ::cz ::is ::sl ::cy ::pt ::be ::ge ::hu
Non-qualifiers: ::ee ::gr ::by ::pl ::sm ::fi ::me

JamieBrown
14th May 2019, 13:30
::cy::pl::sl::cz::hu::rs::ge::au::is::gr

HayashiM
14th May 2019, 13:54
Qualifiers, no particular order: ::rs ::by ::au ::is ::sl ::pt ::be ::hu ::ee ::gr
Non-qualifiers: ::pl ::sm ::fi ::me ::cz ::cy ::ge

DaFlo
14th May 2019, 14:06
::cy ::sl ::cz ::hu ::by ::rs ::ge ::au ::is ::gr

::ee ::pt could sneak in
::cy ::is in danger

Schlagerman1
14th May 2019, 15:49
My final prediction:

::cy ::sl ::cz ::rs ::au ::is ::ee ::pt ::gr ::sm

WhoKnows
14th May 2019, 16:07
::cy ::pl ::by ::cz ::hu ::rs ::ge ::au ::is ::gr

AloraRola
14th May 2019, 16:38
Here is my list:

1) Slovenia ::sl

2) Serbia ::rs

3) Cyprus ::cy

4)Belgium ::be

5)Poland ::pl

6)Greece ::gr

7)Australia ::au

8)Czech Republic ::cz

9) San Marino ::sm

10) Portugal ::pt

QwaarJet
14th May 2019, 16:40
My final qualifier list. Will do it in order.

1. Australia
2. Greece
3. Iceland
4. Serbia
5. Cyprus
6. Czech Republic
7. Hungary
8. Belgium
9. Estonia
10. Belarus

11. Portugal
12. Slovenia
13. Poland
14. Georgia
15. Finland
16. San Marino
17. Montenegro

LalehForWD
14th May 2019, 17:31
Qualifiers: ::is ::au ::by ::gr ::cy ::cz ::rs ::pl ::ee ::pt

Jonaxh
14th May 2019, 17:32
This is not as easy as I though... So here is my prediction (in no particular order):

::gr Greece
::au Australia
::cy Cyprus
::rs Serbia
::hu Hungary
::pt Portugal
::sl Slovenia
::is Iceland
::ee Estonia
::pl Poland

Tomex18
14th May 2019, 17:55
My prediction:

1) ::gr
2) ::au
3) ::is
4) ::rs
5) ::sl
6) ::by
7) ::pl
8) ::cy
9) ::ge
10) ::hu

11) ::pt
12) ::cz
13) ::be
14) ::sm
15) ::fi
16) ::me
17) ::ee

AshleyWright
14th May 2019, 18:08
This is hard as there is much average dross in this semi that could easily make it.

Pushed to it, I'd say:

::gr ::cy ::au ::rs ::hu ::is ::cz ::ge ::by ::be

::be ::ee I feel like this might even out somewhat and just make it through, feel like the juries might enjoy these.
::pl I can see televote appeal here, some diaspora (not a lot in this semi) and eastern europe appeal, but i'm sure last night the juries took a massive steaming dump on it.
::sl the reverse of Poland, the juries probably showed a bit of love, but Slovenia struggles year after year in the televote and this song is far from televote friendly.

I feel like any one of them could be interchanged, even ::is possibly if the juries ruined it and the televote wasn't enough to off set it but i'm more sure that will qualify.

lavieenrose
14th May 2019, 18:12
1. Australia
2. Czech Republic
3. Iceland
4. Slovenia
5. Greece
6. Cyprus
7. Hungary
8. Estonia
9. Serbia
10. Georgia
11. Portugal
12. Belgium
13. Poland
14. San Marino
15. Belarus
16. Montenegro
17. Finland

I couldn't pull the trigger on any of Estonia, Hungary, Cyprus, or Serbia, but know that I kind of wanted to. This semi is super wide open.

RainyWoods
14th May 2019, 19:56
01. ::au (wins the public vote)
02. ::gr (wins the jury vote)
03. ::cz
04. ::ge
05. ::rs
06. ::hu
07. ::be
08. ::ee
09. ::sm
10. ::cy
-
11. ::by
12. ::pl
13. ::is
14. ::sl
15. ::fi
16. ::pt
17. ::me


I've made a couple of daring predictions here. One being the miss of Iceland. I think it's going to be hoping to pick up the novelty vote tonight, and for sure it's going to easily pick up the "WTF is this trololol" piss take vote, but then this semi is weird as hell. There's also Australia, Portugal and San Marino to share that vote with, and I just can't see the jury touching it at all unless the political undertones they find appealing. It's a risk to put it as a non qualifier as it's expected to fly through but from the moment it was selected I felt the same way about it as I did Portugal, and that one now looks quite in trouble.

Slovenia is the other expected qualifier I think will miss. As a piece of music I just don't think it's doing enough to attract support. Less is more can be a breath of fresh air at Eurovision, which is why I believe Austria will qualify this year. In Slovenia's case though it's the same thing for 3 minutes straight with no light or shade. Could pick up some jury votes but I think it could tank the public vote.

Georgia sailing through, come at me! Bold I know, but after everything we've seen and heard, how could this not be 2019s dark horse? San Marino through because Serhat came 11th before with a song I think practically everyone would say was a lot weaker, and he's in a very strange, open semi this year with the pimp slot to his name. It's going to be tight but I believed in him from the beginning and won't give up hope until the last second. I think the public will adore him.

I want to say Belgium will miss but then I recall Blanche. Eliot has the advantage of looking about 16 with that deer lost in headlights vibe about him, and that probably will carry him through. Cyprus I fear are in trouble. They should sneak through but it wouldn't shock me if Belarus takes their bop spot instead (although both have disappointed with their shows).

I honestly think this is the most open semi final ever. I only think that Montenegro are a total lost cause. Everything else has a chance. Not even going to count out Darude power just yet.

Pawhlen
14th May 2019, 20:12
RainyWoods: Pretty interesting thought there, I wonder if ::au might steal some "WTF" votes from ::is, if then Hatari is in trouble, they are relying on the viewers completely since the juries will probably have it in their bottom 5

JSSArcos
14th May 2019, 20:16
Qualified ::is::gr::rs::au::cy::hu

Borderline + ::sl::plhttp://escunited.com/forum/images/smilies/Czech%20Republic.png::pt
Borderline - ::ge::ee::behttp://escunited.com/forum/images/smilies/San%20Marino.png

NQ ::me::fi::by

GermanBango
14th May 2019, 20:22
Last prediction:
::cy ::pl ::sl ::cz ::hu ::rs ::au ::ge ::is ::gr

RainyWoods
14th May 2019, 20:38
RainyWoods: Pretty interesting thought there, I wonder if ::au might steal some "WTF" votes from ::is, if then Hatari is in trouble, they are relying on the viewers completely since the juries will probably have it in their bottom 5

Well, that's my loopy thought that puts them as non qualifiers. The Australian staging is crazy, and Iceland by comparison are relying more on the shock value of their looks to get votes. The jury just might support Iceland but you'd think they wouldn't for quite obvious reasons. They are going to need to own the televote, but they've got stiff competition from multiple artists competing for the same vote, all of whom are probably much more jury suited. It's going against the grain to say they won't qualify but my gut tells me they could be the shock of this year.

Pawhlen
14th May 2019, 20:45
Well, that's my loopy thought that puts them as non qualifiers. The Australian staging is crazy, and Iceland by comparison are relying more on the shock value of their looks to get votes. The jury just might support Iceland but you'd think they wouldn't for quite obvious reasons. They are going to need to own the televote, but they've got stiff competition from multiple artists competing for the same vote, all of whom are probably much more jury suited. It's going against the grain to say they won't qualify but my gut tells me they could be the shock of this year.

My thoughts too, my guess is that ::is probably didn´t got more than say 10-20p from the juries, it will probably not be enough to qualify if they don´t get at least 110p or more from the public. Last year, ::fi had 108p in 10th position and ::hu had 111 in the second

sunshh
14th May 2019, 20:47
I think: ::cy::pl::sl::cz::hu::rs::au::is::ee::gr
I want: ::cy::fi::sl::hu::by::rs::ge::au::ee::sm

lavieenrose
14th May 2019, 21:09
They are going to need to own the televote, but they've got stiff competition from multiple artists competing for the same vote

All I will say is that I've used this same logic to make predictions which have universally ended poorly.

HayashiM
14th May 2019, 22:21
After the live performances:
(I swap Belgium for Cyprus )

Qualifiers, no particular order: ::rs ::by ::au ::is ::sl ::pt ::hu ::ee ::gr ::cy
Non-qualifiers: ::pl ::sm ::fi ::me ::cz ::be ::ge

aef
14th May 2019, 22:32
My qualifier prediction - I'm even trying out some kind of order:

1.-4. ::is
1.-4. ::au
1.-4. ::cz
1.-4. ::gr
5.-7. ::rs
5.-7. ::ee
5.-7. ::ge
8.-10. ::sl
8.-10. ::pt
8.-10. ::hu

Kairit
14th May 2019, 22:38
::pl ::au ::cz ::rs ::sl ::is ::cy ::gr ::by ::sm :mrgreen:

EscGeek
14th May 2019, 22:41
My last prediction 3.0

::cy::sl::cz::hu::rs::ge::au::is::gr::sm

Kitakaze
14th May 2019, 22:45
Final prediction:

1. Australia
2. Greece
3. Iceland
4. Czech Republic
5. Serbia
6. Cyprus
7. Hungary
8. Slovenia
9. Estonia
10. Georgia

11. Portugal
12. Belgium
13. Poland
14. Belarus
15. San Marino
16. Finland
17. Montenegro

Kairit
14th May 2019, 23:16
::pl ::au ::cz ::rs ::sl ::is ::cy ::gr ::by ::sm :mrgreen:

9/10, can't believe this lol (and Estonia was the only one I left out :lol:), my record for the first semi I think, usually get 8 for the first one :D Had a feeling about Hungary not making it since the beginning. Was also really glad about predicting Belarus tbh, since they weren't a favourite, and weren't on my radar either until I saw the live tonight. San Marino was just obvious to me. :lol: I doubted Cyprus quite a bit actually, considered Georgia and Portugal, but yes... I'm pleased with this. With Portugal being left out, along with Poland, and Estonia making it... I guess the mainstream appeal just prevails.

Kitakaze
14th May 2019, 23:20
I’m stunned by San Marino and Belarus. How on earth did they make it in place of Hungary?! As always, there are 1 or 2 surprises...

Chorizo
14th May 2019, 23:30
::is::au::be::pt::sl::cz::hu::gr::cy::pl

Only 6/10.
I am really happy Iceland, Australia and Slovenia made it. There are five countries I wanted to qualify: Those three, Portugal and Georgia. I especially regret that Portugal didn't qualify. It will be interesting to analyze the votes.

Belgium was a disaster live, so no surprise there. Poland was very bad. I just thought they would make it because of the diaspora.
Portugal should have qualified instead of Belarus.

Citelis
14th May 2019, 23:43
FINAL PREDICTION
Qualifiers: ::rs ::au ::cz ::is ::sl ::cy ::pt ::be ::ge ::hu
Non-qualifiers: ::ee ::gr ::by ::pl ::sm ::fi ::me


After the draw my prediction is something like this:
1. ::pt
2. ::sl
3. ::cz
4. ::be
5. ::is
6. ::cy
7. ::gr
8. ::au
9. ::rs
10. ::ee

6/10 only on last prediction :lol:
However in a far earlier prediction i did on 2/4/2019 :shock: i had 8/10

94ayd
15th May 2019, 01:24
I had ::hu & ::pt instead of ::ee & ::sm.

midnightsun
15th May 2019, 02:02
Trying to guess the actual ranking:

1. Iceland
2. Australia
3. Slovenia
4. Cyprus
5. Serbia
6. Estonia
7. Greece
8. Belarus
9. San Marino
10. Czech Republic
———————————
11. Hungary
12. Portugal
13. Poland
14. Belgium
15. Finland
16. Montenegro
17. Georgia

anaraqueen
15th May 2019, 02:13
::pt::is::cy::au::rs::cz::hu::by::fi and of course ::sm

i, for some reason, think that belgium and greece will screw up in the staging AGAIN, and slovenia will be drawfucked

7/10 on this one


somehow my first prediction might be the real results???????????

we just need to see if dead couple will survive instead of darumeme feat. handsome guy with not handsome vocals

and after that 8/10. not bad. rip portugal and hungary

blue00eyes
15th May 2019, 06:45
7/10
missed Belarus, Estonia (I had ::ee/::fi) and Czech Rep.

Realest
15th May 2019, 09:11
I had ::hu & ::pt instead of ::ee & ::sm.

Same.

LalehForWD
15th May 2019, 09:55
Qualifiers: ::is ::au ::by ::gr ::cy ::cz ::rs ::pl ::ee ::pt

Eight out of ten. I expected better live performance from Belarus and was surprised she made it, yet I'm happy she did. I'm especially sorry for Portugal not to qualify and surprised Serhat did despite that terrible off-key singing. Slovenia was nice in a simple mild suggestive way I didn't catch beforehand.

Ezio
15th May 2019, 10:57
1st Australia
2nd Greece
3rd Portugal
4th Slovenia
5th Czech Republic
6th Belarus
7th Cyprus
8th San Marino
9th Iceland
10th Serbia
-------------------
11th Estonia
12th Hungary
13th Poland
14th Belgium
15th Finland
16th Georgia
17th Montenegro

OMG, so perfect I am. 9/10 and 10th at the borderline

GermanBango
15th May 2019, 11:19
Looking at the YT-Views and the Chart performance might give us a hint at the televoting results:
https://i.ibb.co/TL2QW52/1.png

SwedishFailurez
15th May 2019, 14:49
Australia
Greece
Iceland
Serbia
Georgia
Cyprus
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Poland
Portugal
7/10
Well, decent enough. Awful that Poland and Portugal didn't made it in the end, their performances probably wasn't enough for both poles.
I'm really glad that Slovenia made it even though many doubted it. xcheer

EscTurkey
15th May 2019, 23:30
I got 9/10 right

Proud xbb

::cy Cyprus
::au Australia
::is Iceland
::gr Greece
::rs Serbia
::cz Czech Republic
::sm San Marino
::by Belarus
::hu Hungary
::ee Estonia

lavieenrose
16th May 2019, 01:13
it's way too easy to guess all 10 or at least 9 qualifiers after rehearsals.

This, ironically, is the prediction which has aged the poorest.

QwaarJet
16th May 2019, 18:27
1. Australia - yes
2. Greece - yes
3. Iceland - yes
4. Serbia - yes
5. Cyprus - yes
6. Czech Republic - yes
7. Hungary - no
8. Belgium - no
9. Estonia - yes
10. Belarus - yes

11. Portugal - no
12. Slovenia - yes
13. Poland - no
14. Georgia - no
15. Finland - no
16. San Marino - yes
17. Montenegro - no

8/10 for me. I'll take that.